Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Mecklenburg]

thanks but for some reason it is coming up as tropical storm edouard....is anyone else seeing this...i tried refreshing my cache not sure what's up

what? i don't understand... how is this similar to edouard?

[wzrgirl1]

it isn't similar it is still showing me the runs from edouard...it didn't update...i don't get it either

[Mecklenburg]

it isn't similar it is still showing me the runs from edouard...it didn't update...i don't get it either

aw, it would be updated later...

[msbee]

wzrgirl1,here is a spaghetti:



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Luis, that one looks way too close for comfort, right?

Barbara

[cycloneye]

Luis, that one looks way too close for comfort, right?

Barbara

Yes indeed,very close for comfort for all of us who live in the islands.And if it goes thru Guadelope,then it may affect us here directly as its our version of Hebert box.

[wzrgirl1]

can anyone possibly give me some advice as to what I can do to get the updated plots and why I am possibly still getting eduoard plots on cycloneyes posts thanks

[msbee]

Luis, could you explain spaghetti plot to me?
thanks
Barbara

[cycloneye]

Luis, could you explain spaghetti plot to me?
thanks
Barbara

That term Spaghetti means models dont agree of the track and go in different directions.

[Chacor]

I thought all the term meant was that the points are drawn out with lines, making them look like spaghetti. Not necessarily that they are spread out.

[msbee]

ok, thanks

[Blown Away]

Where does the long range GFS model take 92L? It seems the 6z GFS brings the wave E of 92L into the Carolinas.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Correct me if I am wrong, but those models take
92L through the Northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic in the 2-5 day period.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where does the long range GFS model take 92L? It seems the 6z GFS brings the wave E of 92L into the Carolinas.

Haven't seen GFS yet but it will depend HUGELY on whether the deep
trough along the east coast is still present.

If the ridge reestablishes itself or if a trough is present make a
major difference in the track beyond 5 days.

[93superstorm]

GFS is consissting on bringing a strong hurricane around Antilles:

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS is consissting on bringing a strong hurricane around Antilles:

This hurricane is spawned by the wave behind 92L though. If 92L develops, then it would likely already be WNW of the islands by the 17th, probably somewhere in or around the bahamas.

[canetracker]

12z GFS @ 18 HR... Notice the train of waves. 92l looks the least impressive

[AJC3]

GFS is consisting on bringing a strong hurricane around Antilles:

However, that's not 92L. That's what the GFS progs the wave behind 92L to become, as it has been doing for the last several runs. We'll see if it 'likes' 92L any better now than it has...

[canetracker]

48 hours and GFS still not liking 92L very much.

500mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

92L,
TOO EARLY TOO TELL:

Possible Tracks:
-Goes North of Antilles, heavy rains for northern islands and Puerto
Rico and Dominican Republic, east coast trough recurves
with 3 possibilities: 1. Out to sea, 2. Bermuda express, 3. Carolina express

-Goes through Caribbean, some possibilities
Slams lesser antilles and caribbean islands especially
central and south with heavy rain/wind, then in 7-9 days:
4. Central America with big ridge
5. Recurves into the Gulf with east coast trough

[El Nino]

Such hurricane for the Antilles, that would almost be RI ! Haiti could receive something bad from this one.