Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[canetracker]

500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif


GFS still like the wave behind 92L better at 60 hrs

72 hours

500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif
I wonder if the GFS could be underestimating 92L as satellite presentation does not have it looking bad?

[Nimbus]

The models don't have a good handle on this yet, the convection just blew up this morning and we don't even have an LLC fix yet!

With a mid atlantic ridge strengthening and building west I think the track will end up south of the big islands (assuming 12N initialization).

That will keep everybody tense, since they will likely be on the strong side of the storm.

[canetracker]

At 84 hr affecting the islands.

500 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif
90 hr


96 hr...92L falling apart?

[Scorpion]

It's possible this could simply be under the GFS' radar.. I remember it barely showing Felix as a closed low.

[canetracker]

102 hr 92L falls apart but another storm approaching. I do think the GFS will pick up on this better in future runs.

Since this thread is for 92L will switch to long range model runs in talking tropics

[x-y-no]

It's possible this could simply be under the GFS' radar.. I remember it barely showing Felix as a closed low.

Yes, I think that's the story. I won't be at all surprised to see all three develop, with 92L taking a Caribbean track and the next one potentially heading for the east coast, or possibly offshore recurve.

[curtadams]

The GFS is predicting fairly strong shear over the northern windwards over the next few days. So no surprise that it expects anything forming up from 92L to get disassembled as it approaches the islands.

[Scorpion]

Strange how SHIPS predicts little to no shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

wzrgirl1,here is a spaghetti:



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Luis, that one looks way too close for comfort, right?

Barbara

I believe, excluding the extrapolation straight line and the climatology model, all those are inititialized from the GFS and also have boundary conditions set by the GFS. Shallow, Deep and Medium BAM models close together just means the GFS sees similar steering shallow through deep, meaning it predicts low shear. Wait for the NoGAPS, Euro, Canadian (which over develops, but doesn't seem terrible on track of established systems) and UK Met. If all the models, not just the GFS fed models are close, than, too close for comfort.

In my humble and amateur opinion.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed Ed we need to see what the other major models are doing. The thing with this one is unlike pre Dolly this one actually does look forming further east which should mean it will get further north then that feature.

GFS does have a little bit of a habit of taking systems too quickly to the north at times and under-estimating ridges which should be taken into account.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I believe, having seen it in discussions, there is a version of the GFDL model run off the NoGaps instead of the GFS, but I have no idea where one can find the 'GFDN' model on the world wide interweb.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET has 92L moving thru the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico,then to the Bahamas.

Code: Select all

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

10.5N  43.4W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 10.08.2008  10.5N  43.4W     WEAK

 00UTC 11.08.2008  11.2N  44.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.08.2008  11.5N  46.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.08.2008  12.1N  48.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.08.2008  12.8N  51.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.08.2008  13.0N  54.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.7N  56.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.08.2008  15.4N  58.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.08.2008  17.7N  60.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 15.08.2008  18.6N  62.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.08.2008  19.4N  66.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 16.08.2008  21.2N  68.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 16.08.2008  23.6N  71.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



[DESTRUCTION5]

That will get the Floridians hopping...

[KWT]

UKMO pulls this WNW/NW very quickly as well which is very interesting to see, just about misses the whole of the Caribbean like Frances. We shall see!

[Recurve]

I believe it develops slowly into something on the mm5fsu 8/10 run, moving NW past Puerto Rico at 120 hours.
[url]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu33 ... =Animation[/url]

[KWT]

Yep that looks like 92L to me, if these forecasts are going to be correct 92L needs to start gaining latitude pretty quickly and also develop, I recall many models did the exact same thing with Dolly...the main difference is this one will get going a lot faster IMO.

[x-y-no]

UKMO pulls this WNW/NW very quickly as well which is very interesting to see, just about misses the whole of the Caribbean like Frances. We shall see!

I don't see this scenario as likely at all. I think this goes WNW into the Caribbean - no further north than the current BAMM track.

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Canadian has what appears to be a major hurricane for this system heading generally toward SF

[KWT]

I also think this is too far north Ed however there are some interesting comprasions between this and Frances at least in terms of synoptic set-up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

For now looks like Caribbean islands are threatened.
After that, it is TOO UNCERTAIN (after 4 days). Will there
be a deep trough? A ridge? We don't know.
What we do know is that the Caribbean islands need to
watch this closely.

Professional mets please correct me if I am wrong.