ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[x-y-no]

Pro-mets correct me if I am wrong, but I do believe that since the low level and mid level centers are decoupled at the present time that this system should struggle for at least the next 24 hours until these two features work in tandem with one another. I think that is a good point that needs to be made for the future of this system.

Not a pro here, but yeah - the low level circulation is trailing at the moment. It's got good strong convection in the lead, though, even though it's DMIN. I expect we'll see this flaring up and stacking better tonight.

[KWT]

I reckon there probably is some easterly shear on thkis system and that will probably prevent any quick strengthening from occuring.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pro-mets correct me if I am wrong, but I do believe that since the low level and mid level centers are decoupled at the present time that this system should struggle for at least the next 24 hours until these two features work in tandem with one another. I think that is a good point that needs to be made for the future of this system.

Not a pro here, but yeah - the low level circulation is trailing at the moment. It's got good strong convection in the lead, though, even though it's DMIN. I expect we'll see this flaring up and stacking better tonight.

Its not trailing. Its in the same place as it has been all day. Its very elongated, and convection has been on the western side since it was born. Now, as the circulation condenses, it will likely come together in the middle, meaning that all that convection on the western side will not be covering it. Its not a problem though, because there is convection popping up all over this system.

[GeneratorPower]

Dang. Looks pretty darn good on Rainbow!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html

['CaneFreak]

Pro-mets correct me if I am wrong, but I do believe that since the low level and mid level centers are decoupled at the present time that this system should struggle for at least the next 24 hours until these two features work in tandem with one another. I think that is a good point that needs to be made for the future of this system.

Not a pro here, but yeah - the low level circulation is trailing at the moment. It's got good strong convection in the lead, though, even though it's DMIN. I expect we'll see this flaring up and stacking better tonight.

Its not trailing. Its in the same place as it has been all day. Its very elongated, and convection has been on the western side since it was born. Now, as the circulation condenses, it will likely come together in the middle, meaning that all that convection on the western side will not be covering it. Its not a problem though, because there is convection popping up all over this system.

I believe Derek Ortt even mentioned earlier that it was trailing and it is as you can see on the visible loop of 92L...take a look...the LLC is located about 11N 43W while the mid-level center is located at around 11.5N and 45W....point is...its not likely to develop very rapidly...in fact I think it won't really begin deepening until it gets a lot closer to the islands...say about 50-55 West.

[Recurve]

Still looking for a fix.
Low-mid center(s) east of the system?
11N 44W?




I see some consensus there

['CaneFreak]

Still looking for a fix.
Low-mid center(s) east of the system?
11N 44W?




I see some consensus there

Exactly....thats what Derek Ortt mentioned this morning...the waves behind this wave are taking care of the SAL/Dry air issues...

[cheezyWXguy]

Still looking for a fix.
Low-mid center(s) east of the system?
11N 44W?




I see some consensus there

I dont yet see a center of circulation, but low cloud elements are moving in a full circle. It appears closed to me, but is far to broad for the moment. I still think it will be at least tomorrow morning before this becomes a td, but not much longer than that, as it is organizing quickly.

[KWT]

I don't think its getting going quite as quickly as some think it is but there is certainly hints of a lower level circulation developing at the moment.

Also yep this looks very good on the loops right now.

[x-y-no]

Its not trailing. Its in the same place as it has been all day. Its very elongated, and convection has been on the western side since it was born. Now, as the circulation condenses, it will likely come together in the middle, meaning that all that convection on the western side will not be covering it. Its not a problem though, because there is convection popping up all over this system.

OK ... if you say so ... seems to me that if all the convection is to the west of a westward moving circulation, that's trailing. But I guess we differ in our use of terminology.

I disagree with the contention that it as been in the same place all day, though. It's quite clearly moving due west.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't think its getting going quite as quickly as some think it is but there is certainly hints of a lower level circulation developing at the moment.

Also yep this looks very good on the loops right now.

Actually I do think its getting its act together pretty quick. Yesterday I thought, "No way in hell this thing has an open circulation that takes up the entire eastern atlantic." Now its got a possibly closed circulation that is significantly tighter than it was yesterday.

['CaneFreak]

definitely NOT signs that it is QUICKLY organizing either....

[KWT]

I have to agree with x-y-no its clearly moving westward.

the other thing I've noticed is that the outflow seems to be improving on the eastern side a little more.

Also I'm not seeing it organise that quickly to be honest, it does seem to be getting better not rapidly IMO.

[Recurve]

Oh, OK. It's doing the ear form. It's going cochlear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jinftl]

At that low latitude, a system that may take a few days to get going raises an eyebrow....the longer it takes to get going, the more likely it keeps on a general westward course.....a path that puts more and more landmass in direct view.

[cheezyWXguy]

Its not trailing. Its in the same place as it has been all day. Its very elongated, and convection has been on the western side since it was born. Now, as the circulation condenses, it will likely come together in the middle, meaning that all that convection on the western side will not be covering it. Its not a problem though, because there is convection popping up all over this system.

OK ... if you say so ... seems to me that if all the convection is to the west of a westward moving circulation, that's trailing. But I guess we differ in our use of terminology.

I disagree with the contention that it as been in the same place all day, though. It's quite clearly moving due west.

I didnt mean it was stationary...I meant that the convection is in the same position as it has been all day, as the system moves. Convection has always been on the western side of the circulation, from what ive seen. I dont believe its trailing because they both appear to be moving at the same speed, but since its so broad, convection isnt covering the whole thing.

[KWT]

The next T numbers will be very interesting to see, regardless we will probably have to go to code red next TWO IMO given the shape, its got a very nice shape to it...

[Recurve]

At that low latitude, a system that may take a few days to get going raises an eyebrow....the longer it takes to get going, the more likely it keeps on a general westward course.....a path that puts more and more landmass in direct view.

True, harsh but true.

If this does develop fairly fast or very fast, despite probabilities, is there an upstream pattern than is likely to get it out of the way into open ocean?

[cycloneye]

Still orange.

ABNT20 KNHC 101758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.


A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

['CaneFreak]

The next T numbers will be very interesting to see, regardless we will probably have to go to code red next TWO IMO given the shape, its got a very nice shape to it...

Shape does not matter....LLC and MLC are detached at the moment...end of story...I am done...Look at the loop of the visible at around 43 and 44 West and 11.5 North now....what do you see? THE LOW LEVEL CENTER....wheres the MLC? Further west around 45 to 45.5 west and 11.2 North....thats not to say that a new low level center will not become established later on but it is definitely not that organized at the present moment...mid level flow is a bit strong and the low level center is not keeping up...period.