ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Honeyko]

Here's what these things do, people:
1) Fake you out all morning with strong "bow shock"/MLC convection, which then peters out during the afternoon minima.

....and it appears to be croaking right on cue.

2) Either develop a "great red spot" on color IR over the LLC around 10pm-midnight (intensifying) .....or don't (meaning it'll puke when getting close to the LAs, and degenerate to an open wave which will putter along until the next opportunity in the WCAR).

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's what these things do, people:
1) Fake you out all morning with strong "bow shock"/MLC convection, which then peters out during the afternoon minima.

....and it appears to be croaking right on cue.

2) Either develop a "great red spot" on color IR over the LLC around 10pm-midnight (intensifying) .....or don't (meaning it'll puke when getting close to the LAs, and degenerate to an open wave which will putter along until the next opportunity in the WCAR).

edit: nvm

[ConvergenceZone]

....and it appears to be croaking right on cue.

What do you mean by croaking? The convection isn't always going to be in an increasing state 24 hours a day, but that doesn't mean at all that it's croaking...Even some of the best devoloping systems had peaks and valleys in convection...You can't be fooled by previous waves as the conditions are better for development with this wave. Just my opinion anyway.

[Scorpion]

He means its dying.. which is totally incorrect.

[Mecklenburg]

looking quite good... could be become a TD later today?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Croaking or not right now...I cant see this system passing north of PR...JMHO

[Recurve]

Has a decent area of cold tops. Waiting to see if it pops tonight.

[KWT]

Yeah and it should of course be noted that we are going through Dmin now in that part of the world and so its not really all that surprising convection is eased just a touch.

[Mecklenburg]

convection is pretty decent but when do you think the LLC will form?

[Mecklenburg]

i am really wondering why the GFS still doesn't pick up this system

Well, the models can be wrong too, and this is one time where I think the GFS is wrong....Who knows, perhaps if will come around in time.... The only other explanation is that perhaps GFS is seeing something ahead of it that we aren't, although that's probably the less likely explanation.

probably, it's so preoccupied with developing the wave on 30W and the one on SE CVthat it probably overlloked this system...the CMC develops this now...

[cheezyWXguy]

i am really wondering why the GFS still doesn't pick up this system

Well, the models can be wrong too, and this is one time where I think the GFS is wrong....Who knows, perhaps if will come around in time.... The only other explanation is that perhaps GFS is seeing something ahead of it that we aren't, although that's probably the less likely explanation.

probably, it's so preoccupied with developing the wave on 30W and the one on SE CVthat it probably overlloked this system...the CMC develops this now...

maybe the gfs was portraying the development on the wrong wave. Maybe what the gfs does to wave at 30W is what will really happen to 92L. Wouldnt surprise me.

[KWT]

Thats the question that relaly is difficult to answer Mecklenburg. The longer it takes to get one though the further west I'd imagine it will get though if it does develop a circulation from what I've seen a shallow systems will go more north in this set-up...

[Honeyko]

He means its dying.. which is totally incorrect.

*sigh* ...it would help if people would read the context to which my statements are applied. This isn't difficult, since I invariably provide the context.

(The convection associated with the MLC is certainly decreasing in intensity at the present time, which is exactly what I suggested it might do a couple hours ago.)

[Stratosphere747]

92l is really not that much more organized than when it was declared an invest early this morning.

It's the typical slow process with a disorganized system.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah I read it that way AJC3 as well. What will be key is to watch and see if convection can flare up again during the Dmax in about 12hrs time over that lower level circulation that may be weakly present.

[HURAKAN]

92l is really not that much more organized than when it was declared an invest early this morning.

It's the typical slow process with a disorganized system.

[Scorpion]

Yea I think it looks way better now than it did earlier this morning.

[Mecklenburg]

@stratrosphere:
what do you mean disorganized?... just look at the convection and the banding...looks enough to be called a TD if had the LLC...

[KWT]

to be honest Hurakan I do think that looks better at least in terms of the curvature it has and also to some extent the convective coverage as well.