Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea not seeing the Recurve in that run!

[cycloneye]

Now lets see in a few minutes,how the model has the intensity.

The red line is GFDL:

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:

Yea not seeing the Recurve in that run!

Well the GFS never recurved this one, that was futire 93L. It gets confusing with all these areas lol..just a note on that last run that recurved future 93l, GFS developed a strong mid laitude system more common in winter, at about 138 hours, that was never on the other runs and no other models show that so Id wait for the 00z run

[Ed Mahmoud]

Deleted an inaccurate post...

OK, it doesn't hit Hispaniola and weaken, it just misses Hispaniola and weakens, per my AccuWx PPV GFDL.

Not sure why. Looks decent at hour 90, then looses oomph.

On FSU site- all downhill from hour 90

[Ivanhater]

BTW, here is the 12z run of the Canadian..

[cycloneye]

GFDL make briefly 92L a minimal hurricane,but most of the run is as a Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

I could see it weakening a bit if DR screws withs its inflow...Seen that before...

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL make briefly 92L a minimal hurricane,but most of the run is as a Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

AccuWeather, available a few minutes earlier, doesn't have animation. I popped right to the end of the run, and saw a ragged system North of Hispaniola, and though Hispaniola nailed it. But it stays offshore Hispaniola. Not sure if it is shear, or what. Maybe dry air pulled down from the moutains as it passes near the Greater Antilles.

[Recurve]

Holy crap!

[HURAKAN]

GFDL make briefly 92L a minimal hurricane,but most of the run is as a Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Scary track but it must persist to get any validity. No time to panic. Who said panic?!?!?

[Recurve]

Anybody see any reason for the intensity fluctuations in the GFDL, reaching 70 knots and then back down?

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, 500 mb AccuWx PPV coarse outer grid toward the end of the run shows the ridge in apparent position to steer this through the Bahamas towards Florida, but with a trough progressing at a noticeable rate entering stage left between hours 114 and hours 126, that might spare Florida. If Florida needs to be spared. I imagine what appears a minimal TS near Hispaniola could become something stronger as it crossed the Bahamas.


Of course, the boundary of the outer grid is set by the GFS.


Still too soon to be sure, IMHO, and while GFDL spares Caribbean, I'd be listening to local weather services, the media and the WMO RMSC, the NHC on this one.

Not sure I trust the Northwest movement that spares land.




Edit for bad spelling and grammar.

[carolina_73]

I hope the model trend keeps jogging north. Inland N.C. needs some rain bad. This could very well help put a little dent to the drought here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope the model trend keeps jogging north. Inland N.C. needs some rain bad. This could very well help put a little dent to the drought here.

Peachtree City/ATL AFD snip...

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED PATTERN BECOMINGS INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
OF CONCERN. AN OVERALL RETROGRESSION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS
IN ORDER. UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE U.S. RELOCATES OVER THE MID
U.S. WITH A STRONG SPRING LIKE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED BY THE GFS TO
EVOLVE OVER THE MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS REALLY SEEMS
OVERDONE FOR AUGUST AND THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLIFIED. AT
ANY RATE...THE MEAN LOW PRESSURE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD
BE OVER THE MID PART OF THE U.S. INSTEAD OF OVER THE NE U.S. THIS
WOULD BE A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NEARLY THIS ENTIRE
SUMMER. INSTEAD OF BEING IN NW FLOW ALOFT...THE SE U.S. WILL
TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...THIS OVERALL
RETROGRESSION...LEADS TO THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MORE ON THAT IMPACT IN A MINUTE.
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SAT-SUN TIME FRAME AS THE FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEARLY NEED TO BE WATCHED.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EVEN AFTER
THE FIRST...MOST INTENSE PART SWEEPS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA GOING AND A RATHER WET PATTERN FOR
THE SC/SE U.S. MEANWHILE...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE WILL BE CAREFULLY
WATCHING THE ATLANTIC AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A HURRICANE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. THIS IS BEING STEERED UNDER THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED ABOVE. EACH RUN OF THE GFS HAS CURVED THE
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN TAKING IT INLAND IN THE SC/NC
AREA AND THEN MOVING IT NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN STEERING THIS
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS
UNSETTLED AND WET. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA.
RIGHT NOW...THU-FRI APPEAR TO BE THE DRIEST/WARMEST PERIOD AS THE
SHORT TERM SYSTEM EXISTS AND WE AWAIT THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA SAT.

IIRC, Hugo was still doing significant damage in the CLT area, well inland. A nice TS or minimal hurricane is a nice drought buster (although even a minimal hurricane is potentially bad news for coastal residents), anything more, the cure is worse than the disease.


Edit to add, AFD above reference to GFS may not be to 92L, but yet undeclared future 93L.

[carolina_73]

This could be good news for the carolinas IF it were to remain a weak TS or borderline cane. I sure don't want this to become any stronger for the folks on the coast.

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000 080812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 45.9W 11.9N 47.2W 12.8N 48.4W 13.5N 50.1W
BAMD 11.0N 45.9W 11.6N 48.0W 12.3N 49.8W 13.0N 51.8W
BAMM 11.0N 45.9W 11.7N 47.7W 12.3N 49.2W 12.7N 51.0W
LBAR 11.0N 45.9W 11.7N 48.5W 12.4N 51.2W 13.3N 54.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080813 0000 080814 0000 080815 0000 080816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 52.1W 17.6N 57.6W 20.5N 64.3W 22.9N 71.2W
BAMD 14.0N 54.0W 16.1N 58.7W 17.6N 64.0W 18.9N 70.0W
BAMM 13.5N 53.1W 15.3N 57.8W 16.2N 63.6W 17.5N 70.4W
LBAR 14.2N 56.6W 16.3N 61.7W 17.3N 66.9W 16.9N 72.4W
SHIP 54KTS 69KTS 79KTS 84KTS
DSHP 54KTS 69KTS 79KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 39.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z CMC

Windswath

[americanrebel]

:uarrow:

Yea not seeing the Recurve in that run!

Well the GFS never recurved this one, that was futire 93L. It gets confusing with all these areas lol..just a note on that last run that recurved future 93l, GFS developed a strong mid laitude system more common in winter, at about 138 hours, that was never on the other runs and no other models show that so Id wait for the 00z run

Looks likke this has this as a TD right now, a TS in 24 hours and a major hurricane in 120 hours. These potential paths could cause problems. But like I said in the other thread, I will not jump on either band wagon (poof or explosion) for a couple days, to see what this system does.

[RL3AO]

Looks likke this has this as a TD right now, a TS in 24 hours and a major hurricane in 120 hours. These potential paths could cause problems. But like I said in the other thread, I will not jump on either band wagon (poof or explosion) for a couple days, to see what this system does.

Ships it way too strong too quick. Its not organized enough to be near cane intensity in two days IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think that the reason why some of the models are not intensifying this system is because of Wind Shear. Looking at the 250mb Height/Wind forecast... GFS progs an Upper Level High to form to the north of the Islands and if this system were to get under it, that would not be a good thing.

EDIT



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_250_lu_loop.shtml