Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[blp]

18Z HWRF out...

Has a weak system but has a similar track to the GFDL.

[MGC]

It appears the models are moving 92L northward too soon. The models are moveing the system WNW to NW while in reality 92L is moving westward. I think the models have a north bias for this system......MGC

[boca]

It appears the models are moving 92L northward too soon. The models are moveing the system WNW to NW while in reality 92L is moving westward. I think the models have a north bias for this system......MGC

Yep agreed it looks like its moving a little north of due west. As long as the trough is sitting off the east coast I'm not worried, but if the mean trough moves to the Mississippi delta area I'll watch more closely.

[blp]

Updated graphic on SFWMD with HWRF now included.

[SouthFloridawx]

It appears the models are moving 92L northward too soon. The models are moveing the system WNW to NW while in reality 92L is moving westward. I think the models have a north bias for this system......MGC

Yep agreed it looks like its moving a little north of due west. As long as the trough is sitting off the east coast I'm not worried, but if the mean trough moves to the Mississippi delta area I'll watch more closely.

Kind of like this?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

[deltadog03]

Well, euro does about nothing with this.....the energy comes into the islands...splits and has a relative weak system moving through the bahamas...

[HURAKAN]

Shear not an impediment. SST between 28 and 28.7 degrees.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/11/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    34    38    47    54    63    69    75    79    82    84
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    34    38    47    54    63    69    75    79    82    84
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    35    41    46    53    62    74    85    93

SHEAR (KTS)        8     8     9     9     9    10    14     8    10     2     4    10     2
SHEAR DIR        101    74    73    80    78    87   116    74   124    50   193   339   229
SST (C)         28.0  28.1  28.2  28.2  28.2  28.2  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.5  28.7  28.7  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   138   138   139   139   139   140   139   139   140   145   149   149   145
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   136   136   135   135   137   137   137   138   144   150   150   143
200 MB T (C)   -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    10    11    10    12
700-500 MB RH     62    62    61    59    58    58    55    54    51    51    51    52    49
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     9     8     9     8     9     8     9     8     8     7     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    92    79    64    47    44    34    27    31    21    27    19    21    11
200 MB DIV         8     4    11    28    54    54    62    26    23    -6     5     3    14
LAND (KM)        976   947   916   897   887   844   872   718   608   558   315   137    80
LAT (DEG N)     11.0  11.4  11.7  12.0  12.3  12.7  13.5  14.4  15.3  15.8  16.2  16.7  17.5
LONG(DEG W)     45.9  46.8  47.7  48.5  49.2  51.0  53.1  55.5  57.8  60.5  63.6  67.1  70.4
STM SPEED (KT)    12     9     9     8     8    10    12    12    13    14    16    17    16
HEAT CONTENT      36    34    41    48    45    49    51    55    51    72    70    71    68

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  413  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  15.6 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  45.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   5.  11.  17.  22.  27.  31.  34.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   5.   6.   6.   7.   8.   8.   9.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   3.   5.   6.   5.   4.   4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   8.  11.  21.  29.  38.  45.  52.  56.  59.  61.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   6.   9.  13.  22.  29.  38.  44.  50.  54.  57.  59.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 08/11/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 111.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.0 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  40.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    30% is   2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008     INVEST 08/11/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             


[boca]

If the HPC is right like Rich posted earlier today, I'll be watching this with both eyes opened.

[AtlanticWind]

WHXX01 KWBC 110050
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC MON AUG 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000 080812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 45.9W 11.9N 47.2W 12.8N 48.4W 13.5N 50.1W
BAMD 11.0N 45.9W 11.6N 48.0W 12.3N 49.8W 13.0N 51.8W
BAMM 11.0N 45.9W 11.7N 47.7W 12.3N 49.2W 12.7N 51.0W
LBAR 11.0N 45.9W 11.7N 48.5W 12.4N 51.2W 13.3N 54.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080813 0000 080814 0000 080815 0000 080816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 52.1W 17.6N 57.6W 20.5N 64.3W 22.9N 71.2W
BAMD 14.0N 54.0W 16.1N 58.7W 17.6N 64.0W 18.9N 70.0W
BAMM 13.5N 53.1W 15.3N 57.8W 16.2N 63.6W 17.5N 70.4W
LBAR 14.2N 56.6W 16.3N 61.7W 17.3N 66.9W 16.9N 72.4W
SHIP 54KTS 69KTS 79KTS 84KTS
DSHP 54KTS 69KTS 79KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 39.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

[boca]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

What do you mean by LGE?

[AtlanticWind]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

What do you mean by LGE?

Intensity Model I believe

[jlauderdal]

It appears the models are moving 92L northward too soon. The models are moveing the system WNW to NW while in reality 92L is moving westward. I think the models have a north bias for this system......MGC

Yep agreed it looks like its moving a little north of due west. As long as the trough is sitting off the east coast I'm not worried, but if the mean trough moves to the Mississippi delta area I'll watch more closely.

you are smarter than that sitting on the east coast of florida aug 15-oct 15th with systems sitting to our SE

[MGC]

If the graphic that SouthFloridawx posted does come to pass then I think people in Florida ought to pay a bit more attention to the tropics later this week.....MGC

[stormchazer]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

Do not keep us in suspense. To what do you refer?

[cheezyWXguy]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

Do not keep us in suspense. To what do you refer?

The intensity forecast brings it to cat 3 in 5 days.

[Blown Away]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

Do not keep us in suspense. To what do you refer?

The intensity forecast brings it to cat 3 in 5 days.

How did you determine that?

[cheezyWXguy]

How did you determine that?

go to page 6 and look at the first post. It used to be cat3 now its very high cat 2

[cycloneye]

Well,the expectation is building as the 00z run of GFS comes,as many haved been waiting this run to see what it has.

[blp]

that LGE is somewhat troubling. It is not as bad with invests as is SHIPS

What do you mean by LGE?

Intensity Model I believe

I think he is refering to the Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM)

LGEM is a statistical intensity forecast model that utilizes the same input as SHIPS but in the framework of a simplified dynamical prediction system, instead of a multiple regression.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml