ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#441 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:06 pm

Trying to pop up convection.

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americanrebel

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#442 Postby americanrebel » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Trying to pop up convection.

Image



I have to say that this does look a lot better than what 94L (future Dolly) did look like at this point in its life.
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#443 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:09 pm

Unless it contracts as it develops, it will be a big system.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#444 Postby boca » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:10 pm

I predicting a TD tomorrow by 11am.
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americanrebel

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#445 Postby americanrebel » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:11 pm

boca wrote:I predicting a TD tomorrow by 11am.


Have to agree there, but hoping not. Will not predict anything further at this time though. I don't want people to get upset with me predicting a super typhoon type Hurricane.
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#446 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:14 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Unless it contracts as it develops, it will be a big system.

Agreed this system is very big.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#447 Postby boca » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:15 pm

americanrebel wrote:
boca wrote:I predicting a TD tomorrow by 11am.


Have to agree there, but hoping not. Will not predict anything further at this time though. I don't want people to get upset with me predicting a super typhoon type Hurricane.


Predict away your thoughts are welcome.It doesn't matter what people think its just an opinion,people can choose to ignore it.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#448 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:19 pm

Really like the "S" shape of the system..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#449 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:22 pm

Weird one. Dry and scattered. Seen these types wipe out. Seen these types form. The season is still early enough that it hasn't quite cooked it up. See if the SST's improve it.
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#450 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:25 pm

convection's reforming on the center.
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#451 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:26 pm

Even if it does develop slow like Dolly, it has a lot of real estate in front of it...Had Dolly had more time, I'm sure she would have got stronger as well. I do agree that initiallly it will be slow to strengthen...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#452 Postby blp » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:26 pm

Lots of Divergence

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#453 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:27 pm

I don't expect the nhc to upgrade intil maybe 11pm tomarrow night. Unless a big area of convection blown over the LLC. Still it would not suprize me in the least if it took longer.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#454 Postby Praxus » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:28 pm

Despite the easing in convection, I'm pretty impressed with its shape. Really looking forward to the next model runs.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#455 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:29 pm

Yep...

Convection is on the increase tonight.

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#456 Postby boca » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:32 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I don't expect the nhc to upgrade intil maybe 11pm tomarrow night. Unless a big area of convection blown over the LLC. Still it would not suprize me in the least if it took longer.


92L has all the qualifications for a TD status except for one important item. Sustaining convection at the center for 24 hours.Matt I'm still saying by the latest 5pm tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#457 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:37 pm

boca wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I don't expect the nhc to upgrade intil maybe 11pm tomarrow night. Unless a big area of convection blown over the LLC. Still it would not suprize me in the least if it took longer.


92L has all the qualifications for a TD status except for one important item. Sustaining convection at the center for 24 hours.Matt I'm still saying by the latest 5pm tomorrow.


Its usually 12 hours, not 24.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#458 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:39 pm

Appears to be impacting a synoptic border. I think it is just changing gears and we should see more center flaring. (or it will wipe out) Dangerous potential ahead if it gets it together.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#459 Postby blp » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:45 pm

The environment looks great. I think as Derek mentioned the one thing missing here is convergence. It does have good curvature.

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#460 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:56 pm

Sanibel wrote:Appears to be impacting a synoptic border. I think it is just changing gears and we should see more center flaring. (or it will wipe out) Dangerous potential ahead if it gets it together.


I think it's past that border and is developing, based on the past few hours of convection popping. If 92L happens to get to the Bahamas, there is some warm water there.
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