Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

Good ol' JB may be right when he said the Florida and East Coast would be busy the rest of the season.

This far out, I start using the "grain of salt" theory...

[GeneratorPower]

Remember, these are NOT 384hr GFS frames. These are just 5-6 days out. Wow.

[jhamps10]

168hr
850mb level @ 168 hr

Things are getting interesting!!!

looks like it is missing the trough. and not to be outdone, but the wave behind it looks interesting then too.

[GeneratorPower]

Something must have happened to gatorcane. He is usually ALL OVER stuff like this.

[canetracker]

204 hr

240 hr

[jhamps10]

looks like it loses the low, however the moisture sits out in the GOM... doesn't move north at all, thru 240 still no landfall.

[boca]

Something must have happened to gatorcane. He is usually ALL OVER stuff like this.

Gatorcane said he was moving but that was last week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. This run brings the system well west into the GOM by hour 240...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_240l.gif

While this is interesting, I doubt it actually plays out. I just find it too hard to believe that 92L will manage to miss the strong central USA trough to its north unless it is a weak system such as what the 00z GFS depicts.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_240l.gif
240hr @ 850mb

[ROCK]

wow. This run brings the system well west into the GOM by hour 240...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_240l.gif

While this is interesting, I doubt it actually plays out. I just find it too hard to believe that 92L will manage to miss the strong central USA trough to its north unless it is a weak system such as what the 00z GFS depicts.

Dan (MET) said the EURO is backing off such a strong trof...remains to be seen...

[canetracker]

wow. This run brings the system well west into the GOM by hour 240...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_240l.gif

While this is interesting, I doubt it actually plays out. I just find it too hard to believe that 92L will manage to miss the strong central USA trough to its north unless it is a weak system such as what the 00z GFS depicts.

Thats right, intensity will be the key IMO.

[jhamps10]

wow. This run brings the system well west into the GOM by hour 240...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_240l.gif

While this is interesting, I doubt it actually plays out. I just find it too hard to believe that 92L will manage to miss the strong central USA trough to its north unless it is a weak system such as what the 00z GFS depicts.

Dan (MET) said the EURO is backing off such a strong trof...remains to be seen...

also to note that on the st louis news tonight, the forecaster said the same thing about the trof... however he did say that the low could get stuck out of the flow...

[canetracker]

276 hr

288 hr

[jhamps10]

again no low shown on GFS, however landfall of moisture in Louisana/Texas region at 288.

[blp]

00Z CMC

Has a strong system.

[Meso]

Long Range CMC @ 216 hours



Long Range CMC @ 240 hours

[Scorpion]

Yikes lol.. CMC absolutely nails South Florida.

[americanrebel]

GFS has it making landfall in the hot bed of landfalls this year, the Texas/Louisiana border, what a surprise. Lets hope it is wrong and it just goes due West and doesn't strengthen too much.

[Category 5]

GFS has it making landfall in the hot bed of landfalls this year, the Texas/Louisiana border, what a surprise. Lets hope it is wrong and it just goes due West and doesn't strengthen too much.

Hot bed? They had one tropical storm.

[Smurfwicked]

GFS has it making landfall in the hot bed of landfalls this year, the Texas/Louisiana border, what a surprise. Lets hope it is wrong and it just goes due West and doesn't strengthen too much.

Hot bed? They had one tropical storm.

I was just about to say the same thing, besides this thing is too far to away to assume it'll end up anywhere in the western GOM. IMO!