Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[KWT]

Yeah I agree gatorcane though I actually don't think its got a dominant center yet and so is prone to rather large relocations still IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z UKMET keeps this system relatively weak in the short term, but then shows a nice burst of strengthening once it reaches the southern Bahamas...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[gtsmith]

Ugh...just in time for me to be going out of town and leaving my wife and aging mother in law alone...I'll be gone from this friday until next wednesday (the 20th)...we live in West Palm Beach, FL...I KNOW it's much too early to tell but man this is such a bad time to be traveling and leaving my loved ones alone...hopefully, GFS is right in not really developing this 92L or keeping it south of WPB while taking 93L on a more northerly track...sort of threading the needle as it were. Pleqase UKMET...be wrong...please be wrong

[Ivanhater]

The 12z UKMET keeps this system relatively weak in the short term, but then shows a nice burst of strengthening once it reaches the southern Bahamas...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

How many times have we seen that scenario?

[Ed Mahmoud]

JMA through Day 8, not super good resolution of AccuWX PPV, runs 92L as a closed cyclone right through all the Greater Antilles, with a depression over Eastern Cuba on Day 8.

Trough advancing into Mississippi Valley looks deep enough to turn it Northward, maybe, into Eastern or Central Gulf.


I know of no free JMA model output on the world wide interweb.

[KWT]

There is JMA output but only for Europe and N/S Hemisphere from what the links I have:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma001.gif

[gatorcane]

GFS shows a tropical system albeit weak, passing through the FL straits/South Florida:

[OuterBanker]

Geez, just got back from a vacation over the weekend. After reading several pages this thing has gone from fish to Tx hit and everything in between. Just glad the 06z 08/10 run (the direct hit on NC) is no longer in the picture. Doesn't look all that healthy to me, but I haven't been following it. 93L looks a lot stronger to me today. As usual timing is everything, and I guess it could be any ones problem. IF it ever develops. MJO still not in place for another few days, but will arrive about the time it arrives in carib or Bahamas.

[KWT]

Quite a few of the models take this just north of the islands now and then bend the system back more towards the west. The key with this is how much latitude it gains before that occurs.

[deltadog03]

GFS shows a tropical system albeit weak, passing through the FL straits/South Florida:

See that still bothers me very much...The heat content is fairly high with very warm SST. Also with that trof out to the W and NW will provide Excellent outflow....I think, MW said something about this, yesterday but Katrina was very weak until she hit the bahamas...

[gatorcane]

too close for comfort for South Florida and the FL keys with that run above and the fact the oceanic heat content is extremely high in the area 92L would be tracking through.

[KWT]

Yep Deltadog you could say it developed pretty rapidly between the Bahamas and Florida and heat content is high as you say, esp for a developing system you could get explosive strengthening.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM rolling in and likes the chances for further development especially in about 48 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jhamps10]

18Z NAM rolling in and likes the chances for further development especially in about 48 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

looks like it takes it north of all the islands thru puerto rico, thru 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL:

093
WHXX04 KWBC 112329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 48.4 295./ 9.9
6 13.0 48.6 342./ 7.5
12 13.7 49.3 311./ 9.5
18 14.6 49.9 327./10.6
24 15.7 51.0 316./15.6
30 16.6 52.5 302./17.0
36 17.5 53.9 301./15.4
42 18.5 55.1 311./16.2
48 19.3 56.6 295./16.1
54 19.6 58.1 282./14.4
60 19.7 59.7 275./14.4
66 19.9 61.2 278./14.5
72 20.2 62.6 283./13.9
78 20.6 63.8 285./11.6
84 20.7 65.4 275./15.2
90 21.3 67.3 287./18.3
96 21.5 69.0 277./16.0
102 21.9 70.3 287./12.5
108 22.1 71.5 279./11.8
114 22.3 72.8 280./11.9
120 22.5 73.6 283./ 7.2
126 22.9 74.3 299./ 8.1

[KWT]

On that track it'd come very close to S.lorida I'd guess...also very bad for the keys and northern parts of the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Horrible track, some big ones have taken this path before..

[cycloneye]

The red line is GFDL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Horrible track, some big ones have taken this path before..

But just a 40 knot storm in the Bahamas.


Of course, it hasn't reached the Gulf Stream yet by hour 126...

[Ivanhater]

Horrible track, some big ones have taken this path before..

But just a 40 knot storm in the Bahamas.


Of course, it hasn't reached the Gulf Stream yet by hour 126...

Exactly Ed, a tropical storm southern Bahamas in Mid August...the potential is well..