ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Hard to say aobut track, I would want a decent center first before getting too curious about the track. Firing nicely but still don't think it looks all that impressive, very linear still, though near the center it does seem to be looking a little more impressive.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Could this enter the gulf? What does everybody think of the possibility of it getting into the gulf?

It's possible, but not certain. The current computer models show 92L reaching the southern bahamas in about 5 days, and from there it could either try to scoot up toward Florida or the southeast, or it may try to push through Cuba or the Florida Straights into the Gulf. It is too early to tell which scenario is the most likely.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Looking much better this afternoon. Easterly shear is displacing all t-storms to the left quadrant but overall, it looks much better than this afternoon.

[x-y-no]

Doesn't look too shabby at all at the moment. Convection is still gradually improving over the "center" - if this keeps up overnight we may yet have a player.

Have to confess I was dead wrong on track though. I really didn't buy this much of a northerly component to the movement.

[coreyl]

I was just wanting to know what people thought. I know its still too early to know for sure.

[x-y-no]

Could this enter the gulf? What does everybody think of the possibility of it getting into the gulf?

It's all about the timing relative to the EC trough in the 4 - 5 day timeframe. If it misses the connection, then yes, a track through the straits or across Florida is reasonable.

[SouthFLTropics]

Could this enter the gulf? What does everybody think of the possibility of it getting into the gulf?

It's all about the timing relative to the EC trough in the 4 - 5 day timeframe. If it misses the connection, then yes, a track through the straits or across Florida is reasonable.

I'm wondering what this more northerly movement now could mean in the long term regarding track. Hopefully it does not bring it further north so that it crosses the peninsula and into the gulf. I'm really enjoying my electric and A/C this summer and I'm hoping not to lose it...LOL

SouthFLTropics

[gatorcane]

Could this enter the gulf? What does everybody think of the possibility of it getting into the gulf?

It's all about the timing relative to the EC trough in the 4 - 5 day timeframe. If it misses the connection, then yes, a track through the straits or across Florida is reasonable.

That is what I am afraid of --- certainly South Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas should keep an eye on 92L. I'm not so worried about 93L yet since it is hundreds of miles ESE of 92L, but the building ridge that many of the global models are showing has my eyebrow raised some....

It's early though but could be a player for the above regions down the road as x-y-no notes. It may just be a wave when/if passes though, that is the ideal scenario.

[Vortex]

beginning to look much better on imagery this afternoon.

[KWT]

Yep track does seem to have been a little further north then I thought it would but the models did show the disturbance being close to the NE Caribbean.

Will be interesting to see what happens if the easterly shear does ease off, if it does then may start to get a better shape.

[Vortex]

I would like to see the afternoon run of the GFDL. yesterday it forecasted the more northerly component nearly perfect.

[Honeyko]

It was this >< close to being snuffed last evening, but the subsidence relaxed just enough to enable 92 to keep sputtering through the overnight and morning. As the SE trough (and ULL and sw-shear) slacken, 92 should go ahead and develop.

[MiamiensisWx]

I would like to see the afternoon run of the GFDL. yesterday it forecasted the more northerly component nearly perfect.

12Z surface (SLP) data:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081112-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Edit: Note 92L on the left (west) side of the isobaric analysis.

[x-y-no]

I would like to see the afternoon run of the GFDL. yesterday it forecasted the more northerly component nearly perfect.

12Z surface (SLP) data:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081112-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That's focused on 93L. I don't see a 12Z run for 92L.

[cycloneye]

Jan,in that 93L GFDL run,you can see glimpses of 92L as it moves towards the Bahamas.

[HURAKAN]

Center is now under the deep convection on the right corner. Moving clearly WNW or NW and organizing.

[Nimbus]

The GFDL forecast the nw track and had the storm north of Puerto Rico which would be good news short term. Still could go poof again but the potential trouble a strong wave in this area could cause later in the forecast is bothering me. I still don't know how the GFDL knew this thing was going to jog north?

[x-y-no]

Jan,in that 93L GFDL run,you can see glimpses of 92L as it moves towards the Bahamas.

Yeah, but without the nested grid focus, it's not really anything but the GFS.

[KWT]

Honeyko, shear seems to be coming from the east though the fact that the deepest convection is now over the center rather then displaced westward is a sign its easing I agree.

Recon could be interesting tomorrow if it can develop a clear circulation.

[gatorcane]

one thing we should pay attention to with 92L, if it develops north of 15N the chances of a GOM track are MUCH less likely based on climatology. If you query all storm tracks with 65NM of 16N, 53W (my estimate of where 92L may develop) for the month of August, you will see that only one system tracked through the caribbean into the GOM. All of the others tracked either through the Greater Antilles and Lesser Antilles including Puerto Rico or north of them, many of which recurved, some of which hit South Florida and the SE U.S including the Carolinas.