ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[OURAGAN]

rapid firing

[cycloneye]

Even odds this doesn't miss Puerto Rico.

Any science to this? I ask as many members are in Puerto Rico including me.

[HURAKAN]

This morning:



Now:

[KWT]

Certainly would be a dangerous system though I bet the inner core would be wrecked if it took that track...

Pretty close to model guidence as well, a mix between the Euro and the GFS based models. I've got a sneaky feeling given this WNw/NW track wasn't really forecasted it'll end up just a little to the north of that, GFDL track looks close IMO...BUT if it takes the other track option it would end up in the gulf and possibly take a Georges track.

[tolakram]

I have to ask... When (or how often) has an invest like this put on deep convection during dmin and not made it to a TD soon after. Just asking, not predicting.

[Brent]

WOW, this looks really good suddenly and at the DMIN too. Be interesting to see if it persists.

[Stratosphere747]

It's not so much a directional heading change. Just something trying to congeal itself under the convection.

[KWT]

Got to admit the deep convection is really impressing me but needs to hold for a lot longer to really help develop that circulation but at this stage odds for development must be increasing again.

[canetracker]

Certainly would be a dangerous system though I bet the inner core would be wrecked if it took that track...

Pretty close to model guidence as well, a mix between the Euro and the GFS based models. I've got a sneaky feeling given this WNw/NW track wasn't really forecasted it'll end up just a little to the north of that, GFDL track looks close IMO...BUT if it takes the other track option it would end up in the gulf and possibly take a Georges track.

I thought the track was forecasted to go wnw/nw at least thats what I have been seeing in the model data:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

[boca]

The trough doesn't seem to want to lift out in a hurry, which could affect 92L's outcome on track.Well see what the models say tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[Stormcenter]

My "early" vote is for a recurve. It is way too north already. Yeah I know the "Bermuda ridge" is suppose to build back but I don't buy it right now. We shall see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Its still gaining some good lattitude though, and about to cross the 15N threshold I mentioned above:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[HURAKAN]

Got to admit the deep convection is really impressing me but needs to hold for a lot longer to really help develop that circulation but at this stage odds for development must be increasing again.

I heard the bets between the basketball referees are increasing again in favor of 92L!!! Sorry if you're a basketball fan and this didn't sound nice!!!

[tolakram]

Got to admit the deep convection is really impressing me but needs to hold for a lot longer to really help develop that circulation but at this stage odds for development must be increasing again.

Doesn't that assume that the circulation shown in yesterdays QS pass was disrupted? I'm not sure it was.

[Scorpion]

Yes it's gaining latitude alright... enough so that theres less chance it will interact with the Major Antilles and therefore create a bigger potential problem for Florida.

[KWT]

The models yesterday had a track probably around 285 and its further north then was progged at this stage as well, esp given the real center is probably up at 14N.

Track seems bang on GFDL...

[MiamiensisWx]

My "early" vote is for a recurve. It is way too north already. Yeah I know the "Bermuda ridge" is suppose to build back but I don't buy it right now. We shall see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

The LLC is south of 15 N. That is not "too far north" for a CONUS threat, based on analysis of past history. Additionally, it still poses a threat to the southern Leeward Islands.

[OURAGAN]

I think the system was stationary for several hours and consolidating before heading west or w/nw.

[gatorcane]

My "early" vote is for a recurve. It is way too north already. Yeah I know the "Bermuda ridge" is suppose to build back but I don't buy it right now. We shall see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

The LLC is south of 15 N. That is not "too far north", and it still poses a threat to the southern Leeward Islands.

Indeed as long as it keeps gaining lattitude its more of a NE Leeward islands-Bahamas-FL threat (if that Bermuda High does catch it) Its also looking increasingly likely 92L will pass through Herbert box #1:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[KWT]

Agreed MiamiensisWx this is still a thread and a westwards shift in motion would still make it a threat but given where its at now I think the chances of major interaction with the major Caribbean islands is at least decreasing a little thanks to that center relocation earlier.