ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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rockyman
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#661 Postby rockyman » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:06 pm

How's this going to recurve into that huge high pressure system?:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#662 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:06 pm

I think the pro mets would say about the 20n-60w box,its early to say it will be track there.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#663 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:07 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

This RGB loop helps identify the LLC and the direction it's moving in. After staring at it much too long I'm thinking a little north of due west with convection consolidating over the LLC making it appear like it's moving more NW.
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#664 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:08 pm

Yeah no way will this recurve given the synoptic set-up, its going to be a threat to someone just a matter of where and if it develops into much.

Also should be noted still east of 50W, still got a good few days to develop before any threat to the NE Caribbean develops.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#665 Postby OURAGAN » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:09 pm

i agree, not definitive direction for the moment.
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#666 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:11 pm

The thing that make sit look NW is the center jogging back eastward somewhat. I think current movement about 285 BUT I don't think this has a very well defined center still so its prone to wobbling around a little while yet...yep first one to use that dreaded W word! :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#667 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:11 pm

Is the the same system from this morning? :D

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#668 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:13 pm

looking alot better organized, I wonder whats going to happen tonight....
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#669 Postby canetracker » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:14 pm

KWT wrote:The models yesterday had a track probably around 285 and its further north then was progged at this stage as well, esp given the real center is probably up at 14N.

Track seems bang on GFDL...

I wish they would have run a 12z GFDL on 92L but instead am having to use the 93L run.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#670 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think the pro mets would say about the 20n-60w box,its early to say it will be track there.


its a little early but several well-respected models show the track right through Herbert box #1
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#671 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:15 pm

tolakram wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

This RGB loop helps identify the LLC and the direction it's moving in. After staring at it much too long I'm thinking a little north of due west with convection consolidating over the LLC making it appear like it's moving more NW.


agreed 100% and you stole my words there, looks like close to west right now.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#672 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:16 pm

To me...it looks like there is some southerly shear caused by the upper low sitting up at 25N 50W. This is pulling the convection to the north of the low-level wave axis and causing the disrupted look to the system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

However...92L will be west of that in about 48 hours (or less) and the upper flow should be more in line with the forward motion of 92L instead of working against it.

As long as 92L is generating the deep thunderstorms it is pushing up now, it runs the risk of hanging on long enough for the pattern to change once it gets further west. That's the real concern here...I really think this is going to be a problem once it passes 60 west even if it doesn't develop before then.

MW
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#673 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:19 pm

It definitely is looking better than earlier. Remember though that we have been fooled before to only watch systems fizzle right in front of our eyes. Heck, I remember that Debby was pegged for South Florida as a cane and we watched her melt like the wicked witch of the west. If it holds together for another 24 hours then I may be a believer but right now I'm a bit skeptical. That being said, it is putting on a pretty good show this evening.

SouthFLTropics
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#674 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:19 pm

MWatkins, yeah there may well be some shear still on this system but I do think now any circulation is more likely to gfet going within the deep convection and may already have reformed but its hard to say right now to be honest.
Track right now to me is probably 285.
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#675 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:24 pm

KWT wrote:MWatkins, yeah there may well be some shear still on this system but I do think now any circulation is more likely to gfet going within the deep convection and may already have reformed but its hard to say right now to be honest.
Track right now to me is probably 285.


The "center" could very well be up there or develop there. The models (like the GFDL) were hinting at a little more WNW/NW in the short term (probably in response to the upper low up there). So it could be reformation or true movement. Either way I don't think there is enough time, space or strength in the upper low to turn this before ridging builds back into the central/western Atlantic.

MW
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#676 Postby frederic79 » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:36 pm

Question for Mike Watkins. Just out of curiousity, in the 7-8 day time frame, what is your best estimate/average of reliable models consensus in defining the western periphery of the strong ridge forecast to build in north of 92L?
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#677 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:37 pm

If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004 :eek:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#678 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:38 pm

Wow. I step away for an hour or two, and this system has managed to really take off! If this strong convection can continue to fire throughout the night, then I wouldn't rule out TD classification tomorrow. As for the idea of a recurve, I don't buy it. No models are showing that, and the current setup does not favor such a scenario either. The earliest this would turn north, IMO, would be near the Bahamas.

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#679 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:38 pm

canegrl04 wrote:If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004 :eek:


And 2005 just flew by and nothing happened!!!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#680 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:40 pm

canegrl04 wrote:If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004 :eek:
You mean 2005, right? You cannot forget Cat. 3 Wilma (As well as Cat. 3 Dennis, Cat. 1 Katrina, and the close call by Rita).
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Aug 11, 2008 4:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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