Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Aquawind]

[cycloneye]

gatorcane asked,here it is.

[Steve H.]

Yeah Ronjon, after looking at that run some more, it appears that's another feature, possibly 93L. I think the rest of the run might go in the waste basket as there are significant differences between the globals , at least as far as development of this system and some of the synoptic setup. 92L does seem to be holding its own against some dry air, but what I'm a bit nervous of is a pattern shift driven by the mjo may come into play by week's end and the basin could light up like it has across all other basins. I'm really looking forward to the Euro at 3!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats a Pretty good Consensus that either a Cane or a Wave will be in the SE Bahamas in 5 days...

[gatorcane]

thanks for the run guys

[Ed Mahmoud]

Following 850 mb vorticity, GFS takes this as barely a tropical wave to my house, and, I'm sure by then my lawn will appreciate the light onshore breezes and showers.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_000l.gif


The good thing is, assuming the GFS has underforecast intensity, this will be steered by deeper steering, and would be unlikely to reach anywhere near Texas.

[gtsmith]

I'm also a little stressed about this one. I have a flight on Tuesday, August 19th, and I hope that this storm doesn't cause it any problems. The best case scenarios would be for either A) No Florida landfall B) Landfall on the 17th/18th or C) Landfall on the 20th or beyond.

I'd prefer A, then C but please no B....I wouldn't be able to help being landlocked in Oklahoma for five days...

[wxwonder12]

my kids are doing the hurricane come to west palm dance so they may not have to start school next week. I told them to watch what they wish for, not always good.

[OuterBanker]

I seem to be thinking Gulf of Fla for 92L also. Because it is weak now it makes sense that this will be a south concern. If this had been stronger at this point it could have been more of a concern for the south east or mid Atlantic. I think the biggest concern will be what happens when it reaches the west Atlantic. Warm water everywhere and a MJO progressing east. But most of all it looks like all heck is about to break loose for the next few weeks. I'm afraid this will be a season to remember. I hope I'm wrong.

[KWT]

GFs takes it very far west but keeps it very weak, then again I can't help but feel this will be this seasons Felix for the GFS...

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL has same track as the 06z run.Now lets see if this 12z run has a cat 2 in the Bahamas as the 06z run had.


WHXX04 KWBC 121728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.3 50.8 305./12.0
6 15.2 52.3 266./14.8
12 16.2 53.2 319./13.5
18 16.9 54.6 297./15.0
24 17.5 56.1 294./15.4
30 18.3 56.9 311./10.7
36 18.8 58.1 295./12.3
42 19.1 59.3 285./12.0
48 19.5 60.5 286./11.8
54 19.9 62.2 285./16.0
60 20.1 63.5 276./13.1
66 20.0 64.7 267./11.1
72 20.1 65.8 274./10.5
78 20.6 67.1 291./12.2
84 20.5 68.2 269./10.5
90 20.5 69.3 266./10.5
96 20.6 70.6 277./11.8

[Meso]

12z CMC

[skysummit]

12z GFDL...strengthening Cat 3 in the Southern Bahamas:

[Scorpion]

Wow.. trending stronger. Very interesting.

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL cat 3

[gatorcane]

Yikes for Bahamas, and maybe FL Keys and South Florida if GFDL is right

Clearly this is not what we want to see at this point.

[txwatcher91]

Now the question is, IF this were a Cat 3 like the GFDL shows, where would the steering currents direct it toward since it would be more vertically stacked? Would it plow into FL, or would it turn northward from a CF or a trough?

[Extremeweatherguy]

what is interesting is that the GFDL moves this system much faster than the CMC. Both models place 92L in nearly the same exact location, but the GFDL is 18 hours faster. The GFDL has it in the south-central Bahamas by Sunday Afternoon, while the CMC puts it there on Monday morning.

[HurricaneBelle]

I like this oblique reference from KTBW's (Tampa Bay) latest AFD:

THE GFS BRINGS A TROPICAL WAVE TO OUR SOUTH LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...A LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF.

"Less Aggressive"..heh.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/0808121739.fxus62.html

[gatorcane]

But what I am wondering is what happens after that? Does the hurricane move through the FL straits or go more WNW slamming into the FL Keys and/or SE Florida?