Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

I think people need to start waking up, horrible track... Bahamas, keys, SF and the Gulf have a long week, if this happens...

[boca]

How accurate has the GFDL been lately?

[gatorcane]

I think people need to start waking up, horrible track... Bahamas, keys, SF and the Gulf have a long week, if this happens...

Once the NHC issues a cone that points this way (if they do), believe me it will be all over the media in Florida.

Right now since it is an invest, its going "under the radar" for much of the populous.

[Blown Away]

I think people need to start waking up, horrible track... Bahamas, keys, SF and the Gulf have a long week, if this happens...

Once the NHC issues a cone that points this way (if they do), believe me it will be all over the media in Florida.

Right now since it is an invest, its going "under the radar" for much of the populous.

Link please, ty.

[Stratosphere747]

How accurate has the GFDL been lately?

Dolly as a cat 5 into Galveston was a tad off.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I know extrapolating on the end of the run is not the most accurate...but if you do that with this run it looks to head into south dade and cross the state heading north-west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

But what I am wondering is what happens after that? Does the hurricane move through the FL straits or go more WNW slamming into the FL Keys and/or SE Florida?

That is the $1,000,000 question. It definitely looks like Sunday through next Tuesday could be a very stressful period for the sunshine state as we watch this thing and see which route it will ultimately decide go.

[curtadams]

The GFDL overstrengthens on long runs - often very substantially. I've seen it predict a hurricane would strengthen *over the continental US*. It used to overweaken and they fixed that, but they fixed it too much.

[CrazyC83]

But what I am wondering is what happens after that? Does the hurricane move through the FL straits or go more WNW slamming into the FL Keys and/or SE Florida?

Based on that trend, into the Straits. Maybe something like the 1919 hurricane (which ended up as a Cat 4, maybe 5 in the Gulf).

[sunnyday]

When an invest is so far away, I've noticed that the first predictions are usually incorrect. Therefore, if Florida is being predicted for a hit so early, perhaps that will be far from true. If we get in the cone, I'll still be skeptical unless the storm is 3-4 days away.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea that run could make a grown man cry..

[wxwonder12]

I know a hurricane can't make a 90 degree right turn but how sharp or wide of a turn does it make say if it were to recurve out to sea from the bahamas area? hope you understand the question.

[Brent]

WOW, that run is very alarming.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like i maybe going chasing again fianlly after a few year..

[KWT]

The thing about the GFDL run is that its actually fairly slow to ramp 92L, its not till it passes just to the north of PR does it really ramp up fairly quickly.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF has the same track as GFDL but much much,much weaker.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Extremeweatherguy]

When an invest is so far away, I've noticed that the first predictions are usually incorrect. Therefore, if Florida is being predicted for a hit so early, perhaps that will be far from true. If we get in the cone, I'll still be skeptical unless the storm is 3-4 days away.

The storm is only 5-7 days away as it stands now, so by the time this actually develops (IF it even does), the first issued cone could be covering parts of Florida with the storm less than 5 days out at that point.

[sunnyday]

Wow! Thanks for the information.
I would appreciate Mike Watkin's ideas about now....

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the 200mb forecast from GFS 12Z, that Upper Level Anticyclone is still going to develop much along the lines with this system.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_200_lu_loop.shtml

[boca]

The Keys would need 36 to 48 hrs to evacuate if 92L were to be a strong cane and head this direction. US1 is the only route in and out of the Keys.