Ex Invest 93L Model Runs

Weatherfreak14 · #41 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 2:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z EURO has 93L as a hurricane just NE of the Leewards:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

The EURO has done well with tracking TC's over the past couple of seasons... Lets see if it still indicates that this has a chance..

Scorpion · #42 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 2:32 pm

That can't be 93L the Euro is depicting.. its another system that has yet to emerge off of Africa. I think 93L is the one headed towards the Carolinas, and 92L is the one in the GOM.

#43 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 2:33 pm

If you loop it, it appears that it is moving W or WNW...Euro, looks weird though...It seems that it takes 92L just north of islands and then towards LA...Then 93L looks to be east of the East coast US and then something behind that..

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 2:40 pm

Yes deltadog,I did a loop and that is another system behind 93L,that is in the run off the Carolinas.

#45 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:42 pm

deltadog03 wrote::uarrow: If you loop it, it appears that it is moving W or WNW...Euro, looks weird though...It seems that it takes 92L just north of islands and then towards LA...Then 93L looks to be east of the East coast US and then something behind that..

Yeah it didn't appear to be 93L... I think it is something behind 93.

12Z Euro @ 168 Hrs.

#46 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 12, 2008 6:43 am

401
WHXX04 KWBC 121129
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 30.7 295./ 8.9
6 12.2 31.2 298./ 5.8
12 12.9 31.7 322./ 8.6
18 13.7 32.7 309./11.9
24 14.4 33.9 299./14.1
30 14.9 35.5 288./15.9
36 15.2 36.9 283./14.3
42 15.5 38.5 281./15.3
48 16.0 40.0 288./15.3
54 16.2 41.8 278./17.6
60 16.2 43.6 268./17.2
66 16.2 45.2 270./15.0
72 16.6 46.3 291./11.8
78 17.4 47.4 305./12.6
84 18.1 48.5 302./12.7
90 19.2 49.2 326./13.5
96 20.5 50.1 329./15.4
102 22.1 51.0 329./17.6
108 23.6 52.2 322./19.1
114 25.1 53.4 319./18.3
120 26.4 54.7 316./17.0
126 27.4 56.1 307./16.6

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:20 am

WHXX01 KWBC 121317
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1317 UTC TUE AUG 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080812 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080812 1200 080813 0000 080813 1200 080814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 31.0W 13.6N 33.1W 14.7N 35.7W 15.8N 38.5W
BAMD 12.5N 31.0W 13.6N 33.0W 14.5N 35.1W 15.3N 37.1W
BAMM 12.5N 31.0W 13.5N 33.2W 14.5N 35.5W 15.4N 37.8W
LBAR 12.5N 31.0W 13.5N 32.8W 14.4N 35.1W 15.2N 37.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080814 1200 080815 1200 080816 1200 080817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 41.5W 17.6N 47.6W 19.2N 52.2W 21.8N 55.6W
BAMD 16.0N 39.4W 19.0N 44.5W 24.6N 47.4W 29.1N 46.9W
BAMM 16.0N 40.4W 17.9N 46.7W 20.8N 51.2W 24.7N 54.4W
LBAR 15.9N 40.0W 18.3N 44.9W 22.6N 48.5W 28.0N 48.9W
SHIP 52KTS 67KTS 70KTS 66KTS
DSHP 52KTS 67KTS 70KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 31.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 30.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 28.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:08 pm

12z GFDL goes Northwest and threats Bermuda:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

z-bail · #49 Postby **z-bail** » Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:20 pm

ok, i have a problem with this. something with the gfdl model does not look right !!!

ok, look at the model above my post which is for 93L and watch what is does with 92L ! It basically does nothing with 92L, it just keeps it as an open wave heading towards Key West kinda...

But, then go to the link that shows the models for 92L :

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

and look at the gfdl on that link. It shows 92L becoming much stronger and still heading towards Key West kinda...

So, both models have 92L going in the same direction but quite different in terms of intensity !!

Am I reading something wrong here :double:

Ed Mahmoud · #50 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:46 pm

Canadian is out to sea with 93L, but it has something following it, and it still likes 92L, a hit on Miami, after crossing Hispaniola and Cuba.

KWT · #51 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:51 pm

93L looks highly likely to go out to sea, if it remains an open wave then may well go a little further west then progged but still I'll be very surprised if it doesn't end up going out to sea looking at the models.

#52 Postby **littlevince** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:21 pm

z-bail wrote:ok, i have a problem with this. something with the gfdl model does not look right !!!

ok, look at the model above my post which is for 93L and watch what is does with 92L ! It basically does nothing with 92L, it just keeps it as an open wave heading towards Key West kinda...

But, then go to the link that shows the models for 92L :
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
and look at the gfdl on that link. It shows 92L becoming much stronger and still heading towards Key West kinda...
So, both models have 92L going in the same direction but quite different in terms of intensity !!
Am I reading something wrong here

GFDL is not a global model, is a limited area model. It has 3 grids, some move with the system. Each output is specific on that storm.

Under the restored three-nest grid configuration the innermost grid covers five degrees in latitude and longitude with a grid spacing of 1/12 of a degree (about nine kilometers). The middle grid covers 11 degrees with a grid spacing of 1/6 degree. The outermost grid extends over nearly a fifth of the globe (75º in latitude and longitude.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:26 am

#54 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:27 am

418
WHXX01 KWBC 150959
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0959 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080815 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080815 0600 080815 1800 080816 0600 080816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 46.4W 15.3N 48.7W 16.2N 50.7W 17.3N 52.6W
BAMD 14.3N 46.4W 15.2N 48.8W 16.2N 51.0W 17.4N 53.1W
BAMM 14.3N 46.4W 15.4N 48.8W 16.5N 50.9W 17.7N 52.9W
LBAR 14.3N 46.4W 15.2N 48.7W 16.5N 51.2W 17.9N 53.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080817 0600 080818 0600 080819 0600 080820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 54.6W 21.3N 59.3W 23.8N 64.1W 26.5N 67.8W
BAMD 18.8N 55.2W 21.7N 59.8W 23.8N 64.3W 26.0N 67.3W
BAMM 19.1N 55.1W 21.9N 59.7W 24.4N 64.2W 27.3N 67.6W
LBAR 20.1N 56.3W 25.2N 61.9W 29.5N 63.8W 30.2N 62.2W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 46.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 44.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

West @ 11 knots.

#55 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:23 am

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL932008  08/15/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    36    39    44    49    53    57    61    64    66    66
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    36    39    44    49    53    57    61    64    66    66
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    35    39    43    48    55    62    68    69

SHEAR (KTS)        8    10     4     6    11    21     8    14     2     6    13    17    22
SHEAR DIR         49    31   108   115    91   150   182   189   198   247   334   316   320
SST (C)         27.8  27.8  27.9  28.0  28.0  28.1  28.2  28.2  28.3  28.7  28.9  28.9  28.8
POT. INT. (KT)   135   135   136   137   137   139   141   141   142   147   150   148   146
ADJ. POT. INT.   134   130   130   131   131   132   133   131   130   132   131   127   124
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10    10    10    10    11    10    10    11    12    11    11    10
700-500 MB RH     60    54    51    54    52    44    43    41    39    35    37    42    45
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    12    11    11    11     8     6     4  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    52    51    48    45    44    31    25    -5   -28   -68   -91  -119  -114
200 MB DIV        39    29    32    45    20    -8     7   -10   -14   -27    -7    -4     3
LAND (KM)       1190  1196  1210  1232  1192  1164  1045   908   843   870   930  1024  1066
LAT (DEG N)     14.9  15.5  16.0  16.7  17.3  18.8  20.5  22.3  23.9  25.4  26.6  27.7  28.5
LONG(DEG W)     48.3  49.4  50.4  51.3  52.2  54.0  56.0  58.1  60.2  62.0  63.7  64.9  65.7
STM SPEED (KT)    14    12    11    11    11    12    13    13    12    10     9     6     5
HEAT CONTENT      33    45    53    55    55    46    54    41    31    42    40    29    25

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  525  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  22.2 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  76.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  10.  16.  21.  25.  28.  31.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.   9.   9.   8.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   9.  12.  17.  23.  28.  33.  38.  41.  43.  43.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   7.  11.  14.  19.  24.  28.  32.  36.  39.  41.  41.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008     INVEST 08/15/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  33.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 106.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.6 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  48.2 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    29% is   2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    16% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008     INVEST 08/15/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

#56 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:23 am

894
WHXX01 KWBC 151347
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1347 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080815 1200 080816 0000 080816 1200 080817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 48.3W 15.7N 50.4W 16.6N 52.0W 17.9N 53.5W
BAMD 14.9N 48.3W 16.0N 50.5W 17.4N 52.2W 19.2N 54.0W
BAMM 14.9N 48.3W 16.0N 50.4W 17.3N 52.2W 18.8N 54.0W
LBAR 14.9N 48.3W 16.1N 50.7W 17.5N 53.2W 19.2N 55.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080817 1200 080818 1200 080819 1200 080820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 55.4W 23.3N 59.6W 26.4N 63.2W 28.1N 65.7W
BAMD 21.3N 55.9W 26.0N 59.3W 29.3N 60.8W 31.1N 59.4W
BAMM 20.5N 56.0W 23.9N 60.2W 26.6N 63.7W 28.5N 65.7W
LBAR 21.4N 57.8W 26.3N 62.2W 30.0N 63.0W 32.0N 60.1W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 45.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 42.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

#57 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:33 pm

Doesn't this assume some kind of development? Same with 92, as long as it doesn't develop it keeps moving west and the model data is rather useless.

Ex Invest 93L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 93L Model Runs

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