Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Cyclenall]

12z HWRF has the same track as GFDL but much much,much weaker.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The HWRF model always has the TC weaker then the GFDL, the exception was Hurricane Dean. I can't remember anytime this year when the HWRF has been stronger then the GFDL.

[KWT]

Yeah the HWRF hasn't really impressed me to be honest so far this year though it probably is still got lots of time to tweaks.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 121805
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD
@15KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF DIFFUSE
WCSB CONVG...AND SE OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY/AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN OVER THE
WRN PENINSULA. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
MDTLY BRISK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR GULF SHRA MOVG ONSHORE...BUT
WILL LKLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING LAKE CO.

WED...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EWD THRU THE TN VLY...WHICH
SPINS UP A RESPECTABLE SFC LOW (1003MB WHICH DROPS TO ABOUT 999MB AS
IT PUSHES OFFSHORE NC. THIS WILL TIGHTEN LOCAL PGRAD...RESULTING IN
A BRISK WSW-SW SFC FLOW FCST DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA
INVOF POOLED HIGHER PWATS CLOSER TO THE SFC TROUGH...A DIFFUSE FAST
MOVING WCSB CONVG ZONE...AND A LACK OF AN ECSB. POPS RANGE FROM 40-50
NORTH TO 20 NR LAKE OKEE.

THURSDAY...HIGHER RAINFALL COVERAGE CONTINUES OVER ABOUT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING AND AIDED BY A SERIES OF VORT MAXES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF BROAD TROUGH. WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN
ON FRI AND MOISTURE SINKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEAKER WEST FLOW
MAY ALLOW THE ECSB TO BE MORE OF A PLAYER BUT OVERALL 40 TO 50 PCT
OVER ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY
WITH REASONABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THIS MARKS A RETURN TO ABOUT
NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES AND PATTERNS FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUN-MON...BY SUNDAY EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY
AS THE GFS BRINGS A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....HAGEMEYER
AVIATION...CRISTALDI

[ronjon]

92L will either be heading W-NW into S FL, W through the straits, or W-SW into Cuba according to various model solutions. The only path one could rule out now is a recurve up the east coast - have to wait and see since this is 7 days out. Upper air pattern is for strong ridging to develop and build westward. That argues for possibly a more southern track - as always, depends on the strength of the ridge and cyclone. My best estimate now - possible Rita track through the straits - after that, too many factors to figure what happens in the GOM. Waiting on 12Z Euro for further guidance.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC TUE AUG 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080812 1800 080813 0600 080813 1800 080814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 52.3W 17.7N 54.8W 19.4N 57.1W 20.5N 59.2W
BAMD 16.3N 52.3W 17.8N 54.5W 19.1N 56.6W 20.1N 58.6W
BAMM 16.3N 52.3W 17.5N 54.7W 18.9N 56.9W 19.7N 58.8W
LBAR 16.3N 52.3W 17.8N 54.4W 19.4N 56.5W 20.5N 58.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080814 1800 080815 1800 080816 1800 080817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.6N 61.5W 22.9N 66.3W 23.4N 70.8W 24.1N 74.8W
BAMD 20.5N 60.5W 20.3N 64.7W 19.5N 68.4W 19.2N 71.6W
BAMM 20.3N 61.0W 20.4N 65.9W 19.9N 70.5W 19.9N 74.5W
LBAR 21.6N 60.7W 22.7N 64.9W 22.9N 69.0W 23.0N 72.2W
SHIP 49KTS 58KTS 64KTS 71KTS
DSHP 49KTS 58KTS 64KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 52.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 49.8W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[gatorcane]

shallow BAM and LBAR have 92L in the central Bahamas towards SE FL while the medium and deep BAMS have it in the Southern Bahamas headed towards the FL Keys and straits

[cycloneye]

12z EURO is in the GOM as a hurricane.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[Stratosphere747]

92L will either be heading W-NW into S FL, W through the straits, or W-SW into Cuba according to various model solutions. The only path one could rule out now is a recurve up the east coast - have to wait and see since this is 7 days out. Upper air pattern is for strong ridging to develop and build westward. That argues for possibly a more southern track - as always, depends on the strength of the ridge and cyclone. My best estimate now - possible Rita track through the straits - after that, too many factors to figure what happens in the GOM. Waiting on 12Z Euro for further guidance.

You've been passing along some great and objective assessments ronjon!

Like your reasoning but won't mention the Rita word as it might pass along the wrong intention with regards to intensity.

[KWT]

The 12z ECM still takes it through the storm killer islands, if it develops before then inner core would likely be ruined...depsite that the ECM develops it again into a fairly decent system in the gulf thanks to it being weak over the islands.

[Ivanhater]

12z EURO is in the GOM as a hurricane.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

Im not liking these runs with a cyclone gaining strength in the Southern Bahamas heading into the GOM with a weakness in the central gulf...

[Jason_B]

With the system being so weak and still quite a ways away, I'm not putting too much faith in the long term track the models are spitting out right now.

[JonathanBelles]

CPC mention

[KWT]

Well Ivanhater the thing is we are just going to have to keep a close eye on what this does, hopefully it just ends up being one of those invests that promises but never does anything, or maybe even does a Chris...who knows we can hope!

[gatorcane]

GFSX 500mb flow showing next trough in central CONUS heading east. This is the 10 day projection. If 92L is around, will it catch it and at what point will it catch it?

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS is also in the Bahamas scenario,although in a weak status.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

Here's hoping the islands doing some good work for us and chomp it up...Rather see it close now (10 days out) then a 3-day cone.

[KWT]

Well if some of the models are right then its going to go over the islands pretty weak anyway so it may not do the system much harm, for example look at the 12z ECM which has a fairly decent system in the gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Which islands? The Greater Antilles? Because the Bahamas and/or Lesser Antilles won't do much on stopping a developing cyclone.

[artist]

wxwarrior - I understand your intent - not wanting a strong storm to hit the US but we also should not want such a storm to hit our friends on the islands as well.

[T'Bonz]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081212-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL cat 3

Oy!

Fortunately, it probably won't happen that way. Even so....*brr*

I'm still "Wilma-ed" out.