ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

recon very unimpressive

nothing to see folks

not surprising, probably won't starting really organizing until it gets under the East to West Upper-Level winds in about 36 hours. Nothing to see now but I really do think we are nearing liftoff in 24-36 hours once it bypasses the TUTT to the north.

[txwatcher91]

Woah..937mb?

Nope, 987.

[Aquawind]

Woah..937mb?

It's actually ~987 mb...

that's more like it..well kinda

[storms in NC]

MY MY What things I read. It is dieing it is breaking down. I am writing it off. We know where it is going. You should really go back and read. It is a wast of space.
Now I need to go and put that disclaimer in

Okay that a look at the big picture here folks. Yes the ull is moving off to the North and 92L is not dieing out. you see this done many times with other storms. This time of day it seem to start to fad away when all it is doing is trying to get it's self together here. It take time some times. It just don't go Poof and it is a Hurricanes It has it steps it has to go thought. and Most of you all know this. There is No dry air in 92L. I think it is doing okay right now. You will see a nice spin up in a few day from now. It is not dead or dieing IMHO. Just doing it's thing building up so Every one can say it is going to TX or Fl. I think out to sea and I said this to many pages back.
Yes the track it is taking now is more for the south east coast or out to sea More so than TX.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

You can see from this loop how is is starting to fan out or spin to it now. It is taking shape as I type this.

Now there is a spot in the Caribbean sea I think that TX to panhandle need to watch.

Okay that is my story and I am sticking to it.


PS I have known Derek Ortt from TWC days when he was in school. He does a good job. But you have to remember he is Human too. He is here to help us. Derek Thank Bud

[Ivanhater]

recon very unimpressive

nothing to see folks

Yeah, to be expected though, Models dont start to develop this til another couple of days, thats when it looks to take off

[KWT]

recon very unimpressive

nothing to see folks

Nothing to see....yet...I think thats the key word, I never thought recon would find anything at the surface given everything today, probably still a little while away from doing anything major.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think there's a very pronounced spin at around 17n-53w and even if it's only mid level it would only take some convection over it to allow it to get down to the surface. I think the chances of development are getting better.

[jrod]

It is just a long range model and I don't have any reason to trust it, I just find it interesting they have a cat1-2 'cane over Florida and another storm off of New England.

[KWT]

also lets not forget what Andrew did, in this location it was pretty weak if I remember rightly, indeed may have been 50-50 for it to get totally downgraded because of a lack of a LLC...so we know how quickly some things change though obviously I'm not forecasting another Andrew lol!

[cycloneye]

Remember Dolly folks,when nothing happened until a few days later.Recon went for the first time and did not found any LLC in 94L at that time,but in later flights,they found one and from there we know what happened.So lets calm down and wait for all the pieces to come together and in the next few days you will see Fay.

[Honeyko]

recon very unimpressive
nothing to see folks

Well, recon clearly won't see much if they fly through only the top half of the storm.

NHC VIS floater depicts surface southwesterlies at about 13N
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I haven't looked at the tape....would I be off in guessing they were chasing the decaying mid-level circulation up at 17N? The developing easterly surge is going to undercut that, and begin rolling a lower-latitude surface low out ahead of it (similar to old 99L).

[storms in NC]

I see it getting a nice out flow to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

it still seems to be gaining some significant lattitude today I noticed. I really doubt it will track through the Caribbean at this time and it may miss the Leewards to the NE by about 50-100 miles.

What does everybody think about the gain in lattitude?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

92L is more of threat as a tropical wave to the islands and the CONUS with current model trends then a Category 5 further east and predicted to recurve. That's why the concern even though it's not even a TD yet.

[Blown Away]

The dry air to the W and NW is slowly diminishing. Also, the cloud tops have been warming across the Atlantic at the same time, so it is not unique to 92L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[storms in NC]

it still seems to be gaining some significant lattitude today I noticed. I really doubt it will track through the Caribbean at this time and it may miss the Leewards to the NE by about 50-150 miles.

What does everybody think about the gain in lattitude?

I think you may be right. If you look there is some in the Caribbean I would be watching if I were in on the Gulf

[hurricanefloyd5]

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=1

WELL THIS LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM COULD VERY WELL AFFECT MY AREA AND I AM LOCATED IN THE ORLANDO AREA

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see what the NHC sees. I see SSW shear that is tearing 92L apart. Moisture ahead of it is streaming North. Do they go by models or logic? I'd be surprised if 92L survives.

[cheezyWXguy]

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=1

WELL THIS LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM COULD VERY WELL AFFECT MY AREA AND I AM LOCATED IN THE ORLANDO AREA

ZOMG...dont get your hopes up yet

[Sanibel]

The "S" shape is obviously improved.

WNW right now on track north of islands (it seems).