ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Hmm there is something way down to the 13N BUT I'm willing to bet its one of those eddies you sometimes see...still think odds are far higher something will develop from that MLC.

[Vortex]

None of the models have had this going through the carribean..In fact the GFDL most of the hurricane suite and several globals have a very good handle thus far on movement.

[gatorcane]

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I'm thinking 92L skims the Leewards or misses them to the NE....probably not by 150 miles...anywhere between 0 and 100 miles is probably a better estimate.

[BensonTCwatcher]

recon very unimpressive

nothing to see folks

not surprising, probably won't starting really organizing until it gets under the East to West Upper-Level winds in about 36 hours. Nothing to see now but I really do think we are nearing liftoff in 24-36 hours once it bypasses the TUTT to the north.

Agreed, maybe a dose of "un-hype" is needed. The sat presentation is one of an organizing system with DMAX-DMIN cycles. The circulation is still broad and watermelon shaped and pressures have not (and will not) lower until the physics catch up with organization. 24 hours from now let's see what we have. The TUTT is still there and putting the squeeze on. But this system is rolling under it. Expect a weak and sheared system for 24 more hours, then there is enough model support, and visual evidence to expect development. I don't see anything that will surely kill this system off in that time frame. Water temps increasing, shear decreasing, anticyclone aloft, and distance from the TUTT all add up to "player" No suprise on recon, but it still made sense to do it.

[HURAKAN]

I don't see what the NHC sees. I see SSW shear that is tearing 92L apart. Moisture ahead of it is streaming North. Do they go by models or logic? I'd be surprised if 92L survives.

That's because there is an UL trough to the north, which is moving out and a ridge is forecasted to develop and turn 92L to the west.

[Meso]

I was just about to post about the dry air, it's a lot less intense than earlier today.And will continue to get better as the shear relaxes as well. While this wave is still just a relatively decent wave and nothing more, and chances of development for the next 12 hours seem low. Given it's nature to pick up convection and then lose it, I think it's only a matter of time until this storm starts getting pretty well organized. I think in 18 hours we shall be seeing a much better looking storm as the conditions become more favourable for a while.

This post is not endorsed by storm2k, and is not a professional analysis. It's my amature thoughts on the situation. etc

[KWT]

I think the key thing to watch is if we can see convection hold in place for more then 12-18hrs over that MLC then something may try to work down given how well its wrapped round the midlevel clouds.

Still also worth watching that southern eddy as it may swing around the larger MLC.

[Blown Away]

it still seems to be gaining some significant lattitude today I noticed. I really doubt it will track through the Caribbean at this time and it may miss the Leewards to the NE by about 50-100 miles.

What does everybody think about the gain in lattitude?

The models seem to show this NW movement and then a hard W turn, so I think 92L is somewhat behaving for now.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't see what the NHC sees. I see SSW shear that is tearing 92L apart. Moisture ahead of it is streaming North. Do they go by models or logic? I'd be surprised if 92L survives.

Uhh...no. Convection is weakening. Ok. It isnt a big deal at this point, because the ull is to is direct north, causing shear. As the ull moves out, which it is already doing, then shear will decrease. Dry air isnt a huge concern right now, because this has a large moisture envelop. But as the shear mixes out, diurnal convection will be able to stay over the center easier, allowing a llc to slowly form. When the llc eventually fully forms, convergence will increase. When convergence increases, convection does too. By that point convection will have an easier time maintaining and a td will eventually be born. Of course, this is assuming everything goes right. Its not for sure, just a chance.

[storms in NC]

I don't see what the NHC sees. I see SSW shear that is tearing 92L apart. Moisture ahead of it is streaming North. Do they go by models or logic? I'd be surprised if 92L survives.

That's because there is an UL trough to the north, which is moving out and a ridge is forecasted to develop and turn 92L to the west.

Depends on how fast 92l moves. it could get caught on the other side of the ridge.

[N2Storms]

[quote="cheezyWXguy"][quote="hurricanefloyd5"][quote="HURAKAN"][img]http://gickr.com/results4/anim_cef56f24-a94b-39b4-41b4-0ff1c1f2041d.gif[/img]

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=1[/quote]
WELL THIS LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM COULD VERY WELL AFFECT MY AREA AND I AM LOCATED IN THE ORLANDO AREA[/quote]
ZOMG...dont get your hopes up yet[/quote]



Why would you assume that he is "hoping" that it affects his area?

[MiamiensisWx]

The main issue is the lack of new convection developing in the vicinity of the (former?) LLC; the fact that the MLC is not juxtaposed with the location of the LLC immediately SW; and the upper level shear from convective outflow on the SW semicircle, which is related to the strong UL divergence/shear produced by the upper low farther north. However, low level convergence and diffluence is very good in the vicinity. It is very important to note that the current (negative) trends should have been expected; since the synoptic/thermodynamic environment is not ideal (as mentioned) at this time, you won't observe the LLC rapidly co-locate with the MLC, as the strong convection and associated low level inflow isn't present in the immediate vicinity. Additionally, it appears that the LLC may have briefly dissipated because of scarce LL inflow via non-existant strong thunderstorms, so we may have a broad surface trough at this time. However, this should have been anticipated as well. We will certainly observe LLC reformations and relocations.

Personally, tomorrow morning will likely reveal the first signs of SLOW (key word!) and positive changes for GRADUAL (key word!) development.

I still believe this a threat to the southern Leewards/Puerto Rico, and it will present a threat to the Bahamas and Florida down the line.

A "TC cancel" diagnosis is premature.

[deltadog03]

Well, recon showed what most of us thought. No real LLC...I thought there might be one, but it is not there yet. I still think we have a good shot at this developing.

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, totally agree with what you've said, the key thing to watch will be center relocations as that will have a huge impact on the eventual track. I also agree that slowly as it passes the ULL to the west condiitons should improve, eventually possibly being very favorable over the Bahamas.

I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up similar to the first half of the Rita 05 track, not saying the strength will be the same of course.

[cycloneye]

000
WONT41 KNHC 122053
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AS
WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2053.shtml?

[Tropicswatcher]

Hmm there is something way down to the 13N BUT I'm willing to bet its one of those eddies you sometimes see...still think odds are far higher something will develop from that MLC.

That little eddie has been there the last couple of hours generating thunderstorms.... very interesting! Remember the lowest pressures were found down south.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hmm there is something way down to the 13N BUT I'm willing to bet its one of those eddies you sometimes see...still think odds are far higher something will develop from that MLC.

That little eddie has been there the last couple of hours generating thunderstorms.... very interesting! Remember the lowest pressures were found down south.

I doubt that's the future location of the LLC. The best ascent and LL convergence is farther north near the MLC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm thinking we will see this system start to develop more in about a day or two. Many of the models show 92L deepening pretty rapidly once it gets toward the southern Bahama region, and that is when things could definitely get interesting.

[alienstorm]

I know this may sound well....

The 20:45 High Resolution visible show what appears to be the redevelopment of Thunderstorns over the MLC, we will see what the next few hours bring.

[KWT]

Yep the MLC should be where we should be focusing our main attention though I suppose that eddy still needs watching just in case.