Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

CAT 3 18Z

[Ivanhater]

Actually, the progged heading suggests a threat north of south FL in the 18Z GFDL run...

This trend may indicate the operational 18Z GFS is "delaying" the building H5-H85 ridging, allowing (stronger) 92L to move toward the Carolinas as the trough passes the area.

Personally, I have never anticipated a track significantly farther west than the Florida peninsula and Monroe County Keys. Models have been demonstrating a seasonal bias toward stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges.

I've always believed you can unanimously discount a western/central Gulf threat.

Huh? The 18z GFS actually builds a stronger ridge than previous runs..

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the progged heading suggests a threat north of south FL in the 18Z GFDL run...

This trend may indicate the operational 18Z GFS is "delaying" the building H5-H85 ridging, allowing (stronger) 92L to move toward the Carolinas as the trough passes the area.

Personally, I have never anticipated a track significantly farther west than the Florida peninsula and Monroe County Keys. Models have been demonstrating a seasonal bias toward stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges.

I've always believed you can unanimously discount a western/central Gulf threat.

Huh? The 18z GFS actually builds a stronger ridge than previous runs..

Can you post the evidence?

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like its undergoing some decent strengthening by the end of the run, down to 955mbs by the end of the run...

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Personally, my preliminary analysis on the long range remains unaltered; I expect a threat to the Florida peninsula, but I don't believe 92L will pass west of the state (in the eastern GOM). As I have mentioned, the predominant bias (in the operational GFS/Euro) has been oriented toward stronger, persistent upper level ridging in the long term. These models have been anomalously altering the global/CONUS pattern, while the seasonal pattern has maintained a deeper longwave trough over the Midwest and Northeast. Based on these details and other data, if 92L strikes Florida, it will likely track from south to north along the "spine" of the state (i.e. upper Keys/Miami to Orlando, etc.).

This would also result in an excellent opportunity for "drought relief" in portions of the Southeast.

[JonathanBelles]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

18Z GFDL Graphic

[MiamiensisWx]

Run looks like a classical Carolinas approach...

Ridging over the Mid-South is weaker at mid/upper levels.

Let's see if other models latch on to trends.

[RL3AO]

I'd like to point out that 121kt is a cat 4, not a cat 3 as the title says.

[DESTRUCTION5]

that Run means business

[cycloneye]

I'd like to point out that 121kt is a cat 4, not a cat 3 as the title says.

Fixed

[Ivanhater]

Actually, the progged heading suggests a threat north of south FL in the 18Z GFDL run...

This trend may indicate the operational 18Z GFS is "delaying" the building H5-H85 ridging, allowing (stronger) 92L to move toward the Carolinas as the trough passes the area.

Personally, I have never anticipated a track significantly farther west than the Florida peninsula and Monroe County Keys. Models have been demonstrating a seasonal bias toward stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges.

I've always believed you can unanimously discount a western/central Gulf threat.

Huh? The 18z GFS actually builds a stronger ridge than previous runs..

Can you post the evidence?

Sure...day 5



Day 7..



Pretty hard to bust through that to get to the Carolinas...anyway olympic time..Go usa women gymnastics team go for gold!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes there is a red spot on GFDL indicating Category 4.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Will be watching this very closely.

[canegrl04]

I'd like to point out that 121kt is a cat 4, not a cat 3 as the title says.

Holy you know what

[HURAKAN]

No time to panic. Who said "panic"?!?!?!?

Seriously, that's eye-opening but too early to be a mayor concern.

My concern is the repetition of the same scenario run after run.

[deltadog03]

Well, we need to see if and when it develops first...Synoptically I would trust the EURO vs the GFS...I will say this tho, if it does develop the happy medium is basically florida.

[KWT]

GFDL doesn't really do much for the first 24hrs of the run, its only after that that we see any decent development occuring.

[CajunMama]

Nothing like the title of this thread to instill panic in some people who are novices.

[RL3AO]

Nothing like the title of this thread to instill panic in some people who are novices.

Thats what I was thinking. The title of the thread is not needed.

Maybe just 18z GFDL posted.