More GOM Tropical Development

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy Thunderstorm Complex in the Northeast Gulf has
been bringing heavy squalls of very strong winds and moderate
rain all day to the Florida peninsula:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html


Saint Petersburg Whitted Airport:
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSPG.html
17:53 NW 21 G 28

Saint Petersburg/Clearwater Airport:
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPIE.html
17:53 NW 22 G 31


I was standing outside in an earlier squall that brought
wind gusts easily to 50 mph.

[JonathanBelles]

I havent had gusts nearly that strong, but it was quite breezy. There was farmers market tent down on the way back from dinner tonight.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm just estimating based on how it felt, because I was
standing on the canal and I couldn't even stand because
the wind was pushing me really hard. I had to bend down
and slowly work my way inside.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whatever might become of this northeast gulf mess
will depend on how the thunderstorms over the gulf
hold up tonight. Right now most the the activity is still
near Cedar Key and westward.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Widespread heavy convection moving into the north
central Gulf. More moderate convection moving into
the northeast gulf.
Pressure gradient between a low to the north and high to the south
will create very strong winds over the Gulf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

EDIT- TYPO ERROR
SW 25 G 35 mph NOT 55 mph that was a typo.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice flare up of storms offshore Louisiana with old cold front.

But the 12Z WRF, which did predict Edoaurd, predicts nada.

The other enthusiastic cyclone developer, in through hour 120, the CMC, also says no.



So while I'd admire the pretty colors (using rainbow IR), I vote no development.

[JonathanBelles]

Tomorrow is gonna be another soggy day for Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy convection over the central gulf moving east towards Florida.

[Ixolib]

Looks like a steady blow out in the Gulf, but the pressure is holding steady and/or rising... Perhaps Thursday will show a bit of a difference. Agreed, though, gonna be wet around here...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

[lrak]

I just can't recall this many fronts making it down this far south. Its been some time for this to happen in the middle of August, right?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very Heavy Convection over a very large area, but nothing
organized yet.
[/quote]

[Ivanhater]

Im glad this mess has pushed on, been crappy for a few days..Id like to hit the beach a few more time before college starts back up

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anything can happen, but the East Coast trough seems to be re-establishing as the Mississippi Valley trough. While I wish Dolly and Edoard had rained more on my lawn, and this year has been a dry one, I can't complain.

I think the normal Texas hurricane season, which typically ends late September (IIRC, 2 October canes in 60 years) may be ending a month early.


Not sure if it verifies, but rumor of another cold front this weekend, at least getting close. More than one cold front a week is late September, not August, weather in SETX.


I hope this means an early Autumn, and snow before 2009, but I'm trying to stay realistic.

[El Nino]

I'm tracking my wife's flight from Houston to Lima, and all the flights have a lot of delay, around 1h. I could see there's lot of thunderstorms in Texas and in the GOM. Is this usual or this could bring some tropical development ?

[southerngreen]

can't remember who mentioned wind speed/ gust etc., but a pretty good guesstimator for the next few days to look at is found here:
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphi ... t.php#tabs

gives wind, precip, etc.

and this one shows how much rain we've already gotten this week:
http://water.weather.gov/
just another couple of fun places to look while we wait.

(those of us in WC Fla are soggy already)
regardless of whether we get a direct hit, it's not the Sunshine state right now....

[Wx_Warrior]

Ed M...Why the reasoning behind Texas' threat being over?

Masters says 2005 setup coming back into play soon and GOM will be center of attention.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not speaking fo Ed but he has a point. Everything has been dominated by troughs so far this season and every week one seems to make it down all the way to the gulf. Should not be normally happening this time of year. Heck here in south LA today we are not even getting in the 90's for the second day in a row. Now I know things can change and everyone thought they were going to when Fay was still a wave and all the models were showing a dominating bermuda high building in ssending whatever was in the atlantic west but once again another early season front changed that in a hurry and the high turned out to be pretty weak. Sure something could sneak in if it forms at just the right time but I dont see how anything from the atlantic or far western carib could ever make it as far west as tx with this pattern we have been in. By that I mean a named storm to follow. Not like a edouard that moves through the gulf as a disturbance and develops 2 days or less before landfall. Yes things can change but Sept. is just 2 weeks away.

[ROCK]

Ed M...Why the reasoning behind Texas' threat being over?

Masters says 2005 setup coming back into play soon and GOM will be center of attention.

Coop, every year Ed says this........ after all its summer not fall. Expect a change in the coming week.