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Sanibel wrote:Some times I feel like I am typing to myself. I said yesterday that 92L was a weird disappearer and that it already almost wiped out and that last night's drying up was just another deep d-min - and that 92 was an early morning d-maxer. Meanwhile some pro's were calling for dissipation.
Anyway, I think 92 has proven itself and should develop now.
Stormcenter wrote:Steve wrote:>>I think it is extremely prudent to not "write it off."
Great post as usual Miami. I appreciate the effort you and guys like Aric are putting into your analyses, which said posts are proving to be better than what other people are posting. Reminds me of HankFrank on CFHC who often had the best work even though he was still in school.
For those of you offering worthless posts last night - looking your way Mecklenberg, among others - can you let go of the ADHD stuff for a while? Nothing was likely going to happen with 92L, if ever, until late this week. It's a tropical wave that we've been watching since Sunday and wasn't likely to do anything for a while.
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For everyone else, global models have been pretty close to one another even as their solutions have varied from run to run. 00z runs are looking like a threat to the Bahamas and SE Florida early next week. Looks like a turn to the north late in the runs. Also, none of the runs that were throwing high pressure (of Canadian origin) in there and subsequently giving 92L a push to the W or WNW are doing that anymore. Perhaps a weak, transient trough slides by to the north and gives 92L a tug or slows it down waiting for stronger steering currents. Gonna be an interesting few days for you folks down in the Keys and Miami.
Steve
I actually believe very few (on this board) including myself are writing off 92L. Look just think back to 2005 and that K storm. I'm NOT saying this will or can be anything like that but only how quickly these can spin up.
storms in NC wrote:I think that the center is where that burst of dark red is. I was just looking at the loop to see if I could see any thing and that is where I seen it at.
wxman57 wrote:storms in NC wrote:I think that the center is where that burst of dark red is. I was just looking at the loop to see if I could see any thing and that is where I seen it at.
I don't see anything there. I do see lower cloud elements streaming northward about 100 miles west of that blob. I think any remnant MLC is well to the west of that convection, possibly near 17N/58W, where I have the yellow circle on the satellite and surface analysis below. But I don't see much rotation anywhere, certainly not in that area of convection. I think there may be a fair chance (30-40%) of development beyond the next 48 hours. And if it does develop into a TS, then I don't see much to stop it from becoming a hurricane and a threat to the Gulf in about 7 days.
gatorcane wrote:well that forecast by Wxman should raise some eyebrows
No surprise though -- my forecast reasoning is in line with his but I give it a higher chance of development with possible effects in Southern Florida and the FL Keys.
It's not about now with 92L, its the excellent environment it will be moving into into down the line.
Stay tuned.
cycloneye wrote:HURAKAN wrote:The blob now appears to be moving westward. Right?
Yes,and I like that to continue moving this way,as we can get plenty of rain here to terminate the drought.
! wxman57 wrote:storms in NC wrote:I think that the center is where that burst of dark red is. I was just looking at the loop to see if I could see any thing and that is where I seen it at.
I don't see anything there. I do see lower cloud elements streaming northward about 100 miles west of that blob. I think any remnant MLC is well to the west of that convection, possibly near 17N/58W, where I have the yellow circle on the satellite and surface analysis below. But I don't see much rotation anywhere, certainly not in that area of convection. I think there may be a fair chance (30-40%) of development beyond the next 48 hours. And if it does develop into a TS, then I don't see much to stop it from becoming a hurricane and a threat to the Gulf in about 7 days.
MiamiensisWx wrote:I think it is extremely prudent to not "write it off." As previously mentioned, the wave axis has entered the shear zone (strongest UL winds) from the upper low to the north. In other words, the fact that the thunderstorms are sheared via strong divergence should have been anticipated. The system is currently encountering the worst conditions, which will continue during the next ~24-28 hours. Shear will likely decrease after this time frame, as the system enters the west side of the shear zone and an upper level anticyclone builds at 300 mb. There are also several reasons for concerns down the line in the Bahamas and southern Florida. This system will survive the hostile conditions over the next 24 hours.
1. LL 850 mb vorticity has been quite strong near the northern end of the wave axis (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html). This would eventually favor the formation of a surface low in the region of best LL convergence and ascent. The bolded portion is important: with an increasingly unstable boundary layer, thunderstorms would develop and result in the development of a LLC. Note that the ascent provided by the UL divergence (shear) is partially contributing to convection developing in the vicinity of the strongest 850 mb vorticity. The fact that the vorticity has been persistent is disconcerting, and it will certainly remain as the system moves WNW across the NE Caribbean toward the islands of the Bahamas.
2. The wave axis is still present. In other words, even if most of the thunderstorms dissipate, the wave axis will still remain as it moves WNW across the NE Caribbean toward the Bahamas. The associated LL convergence line will be present, so additional thunderstorms can develop down the line, depending on other synoptic/thermodynamic factors as well. TCs can eventually develop if the wave axis/convergence line eventually enters more conducive conditions.
3. Most of the models (depicting a TC) have remained consistent: they do NOT develop the TC until the system is NW of Puerto Rico. This would coincide with the more conducive upper air regime. Additionally, WV data indicates the TUTT to the west is continuing to progress westward. As the upper low north of 92L moves slowly NE and the system (92L) passes the shear zone beyond ~24-28 hours, we will observe the gradual evolution of the aforementioned 300 mb anticyclone.
Sanibel wrote:I'm not trying to criticize anyone but sometimes I think some of the more educated opinions on this board should recognize persisting centers with red IR for what they are - that is, indication of a system trying to develop. Any system that went as low as 92L yet still bursts a red IR center the next morning is showing something that connotes development and should be recognized as such. - Just a point.
My thoughts are also Keys should be taking notice of this even if it misses.
Stormcenter wrote:wxman57 wrote:storms in NC wrote:I think that the center is where that burst of dark red is. I was just looking at the loop to see if I could see any thing and that is where I seen it at.
I don't see anything there. I do see lower cloud elements streaming northward about 100 miles west of that blob. I think any remnant MLC is well to the west of that convection, possibly near 17N/58W, where I have the yellow circle on the satellite and surface analysis below. But I don't see much rotation anywhere, certainly not in that area of convection. I think there may be a fair chance (30-40%) of development beyond the next 48 hours. And if it does develop into a TS, then I don't see much to stop it from becoming a hurricane and a threat to the Gulf in about 7 days.
What area in the Gulf may I ask? Is Texas okay?
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