New Wave coming off Africa

[KWT]

New system just coming off Africa presently with some fairly deep convection with it as well:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

Looks like some of the models are pretty keen on some development from this region.

[Meso]

GFS showing it moving quite quickly at around 52W in 156 hours

[Mecklenburg]

GFS showing it moving quite quickly at around 52W in 156 hours

hopefully after period of lull this will finally develop into fay

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[RL3AO]

Long way off but the GFS takes a very strong storm into the northern islands then into North Carolina in two straight runs.

[cycloneye]

Look where GFS has it in the long range.



Here is the complete loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Mecklenburg]

for once i hope the GFS would hit the jackpot this august

[carolina_73]

This is a very nice and well structured wave. Maybe a Floyd type scenerio on the horizon Plenty of time to watch this one.

[RL3AO]

for once i hope the GFS would hit the jackpot this august

So your hoping the GFS is right and a storm/hurricane hits the northern islands and then hits the East Coast as a strong hurricane?

[Mecklenburg]

for once i hope the GFS would hit the jackpot this august

So your hoping the GFS is right and a storm/hurricane hits the northern islands and then hits the East Coast as a strong hurricane?

it's not like that... i miss the excitement of tracking storms in the atlantic...

[RL3AO]

it's not like that... i miss the excitement of tracking storms in the atlantic...

Yeah...its been an entire week since we've had a storm...

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Good sat pic appearence looking good,and very south system, let's see what happens during the next couple of days

[Category 5]

for once i hope the GFS would hit the jackpot this august

So your hoping the GFS is right and a storm/hurricane hits the northern islands and then hits the East Coast as a strong hurricane?

it's not like that... i miss the excitement of tracking storms in the atlantic...

And 90% of your posts are wasted complaining about it.

Didn't we just have a Tropical storm last week by the way?

[cycloneye]

The 12z is rolling now.Lets see what it has for this wave,as in past runs,it has been very bullish.

24 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

54 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

72 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

84 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

114 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

138 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

150 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif Continues moving mainly west towards Lesser Antilles.

168 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif Threats the Lesser Antilles.

216 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif Moves into Caribbean Sea.

288 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif Rolls thru Yucatan Channel.

324 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif Final landfall in Texas/LA border.

12z GFS Loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Haaa, what a classic track!

[cycloneye]

Haaa, what a classic track!

Yes it is.Look where it ends up.But it was in the east coast at 00z,so I dont put stock on the track so far out after 250 hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed...

This will be your biggie of the season....

[Gustywind]

Haaa, what a classic track!

Yes it is.Look where it ends up.But it was in the east coast at 00z,so I dont put stock on the track so far out after 250 hours.

Looks like a Northern Windward track crossing near Dominica...or even Martinica ( maybe a Dean brother ? ) waouwww don't worry about... it's just first runs, but we have time to track ( shoud it forms first )if something happens.

[KWT]

Certainly is very impressive from the GFS, will be interesting to see what ECM does with this wave if anything.

The bigger picture is the upper high should be strong enough to at least make this a threat to the USA.