Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[KWT]

Here is the reason everyone is confused because look at this verson of the ECM run and you can clearly see a weak 92L close to DR:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

Aric- Bastardi has had a version of that, that a system approaching land at an oblique angle is either turned into or away from land, depending on which side approaches, due to frictional weakening of one side.

He predicted the Isidore turn into the Yucatan that spared what looked to have been a scary hit on Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Model consensus (gray line) has this system in the northern Bahamas, just east of FL, by early Monday afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric- Bastardi has had a version of that, that a system approaching land at an oblique angle is either turned into or away from land, depending on which side approaches, due to frictional weakening of one side.

He predicted the Isidore turn into the Yucatan that spared what looked to have been a scary hit on Texas.

really... thats cool
so im not completly out in left field..

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still wonder how the UK Met analyzed a tropical cyclone on the Colombian coast...


I wonder, them being on that side of the world and all, if the UK Met Office and the ECMWF use a common source of input data for their models.

[MiamiensisWx]

18Z (?) NOGAPS has shifted considerably to the east (right)...

[cycloneye]

18Z (?) NOGAPS has shifted considerably to the east (right)...

Link to the run?

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z (?) NOGAPS has shifted considerably to the east (right)...

12Z NoGaPS- in Bahamas, moving Northwest at 132 hours.



From Navy site- NoGaPs 500 mb animation suggests high might try to build back over top of 92L and keep it from missing the SE Coast.

[txwatcher91]

IMO, IF 92L ever develops, which I think it will, I think it will take a Floyd 99' type track. Based on model trends I have some support to back this up. However, that assumes that this one even becomes a named TS.

[boca]

Judging by the models of late with the shift to the right.Maybe Florida will dodge this one? Big Maybe.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can't link it, but my AccuWX PPV model site Japanese model 12Z says 92L stays weak, cruises generally Westward, and is near Western tip of Cuba in 8 days. Not a fast mover!

[gtsmith]

Aric- Bastardi has had a version of that, that a system approaching land at an oblique angle is either turned into or away from land, depending on which side approaches, due to frictional weakening of one side.

He predicted the Isidore turn into the Yucatan that spared what looked to have been a scary hit on Texas.

I dont know...maybe it's just me...but isn't that rather self-evident? It only has two options: turn into land or turn away? What am I missing?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Aric- Bastardi has had a version of that, that a system approaching land at an oblique angle is either turned into or away from land, depending on which side approaches, due to frictional weakening of one side.

He predicted the Isidore turn into the Yucatan that spared what looked to have been a scary hit on Texas.

I dont know...maybe it's just me...but isn't that rather self-evident? It only has two options: turn into land or turn away? What am I missing?

Approaching at an oblique angle- it could just keep going the same direction it was going, turning implies a change in direction.


I hope that helps.

[boca]

The ridge hasn't build in all summer.I still think that this pattern is not ready to change to strong ridge for the east coast. I'm basing this on the model trends of late today. Winter in summer is not ready yet to give up yet.

[MCWX]

http://www.nwhhc.com/euro/

Just follow the contours...

in euro04.gif, there is a clear broad low in the SW Caribbean that moves over Florida

the contouring I used is .3mb

Nice maps. Wonder if the small contour intervals and actual model resolution is yielding a real solution on those maps? Wouldn't you expect to see some reflection in the 850mb vorticity fields? Could you post those? IF the ECMWF operational run is correct, I suspect we will not find anything coming north getting absorbed into 92L's circulation.

It seems a weak short wave moves across the SE and we see a small part of the shortwave trough fracture off and back SW which beyond allowing a weakness in the ridge, it imparts a southerly component to the steering currents as the weak upper low is west of the developing sfc tropical cyclone. Possibly why both the CMC and ECMWF operational & ensemble solutions have shifted east vs previous 0z runs. Of course, detailing a track over a week away on a system that has yet to form is sort of silly.

[deltadog03]

I still think this has the look of the hook into florida.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, Im in Southern SC and i have to watch out for a potiental hurricane by mid next week.

[Bocadude85]

I still think this has the look of the hook into florida.

Kind of what Im thinking.. moves west for a few days then wnw and adventually nw hooking right into florida

[gatorcane]

I still think this has the look of the hook into florida.

Kind of what Im thinking.. moves west for a few days then wnw and adventually nw hooking right into florida

I have been saying this all along, looks like it has that "classic" hook into FL with the synoptic setup unfolding for it.

[deltadog03]

I still think this has the look of the hook into florida.

Kind of what Im thinking.. moves west for a few days then wnw and adventually nw hooking right into florida

I have been saying this all along, looks like it has that "classic" hook into FL with the synoptic setup unfolding for it.

I think your right...It was Jeanne that went out and then came back in right?? Not saying this is going out, but looks like it could go NW into the bahamas and then hook west into florida...Has to develop first tho!! hahah