Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

No idea why wxman doesnt put in models such as the Euro, gfs , cmc and others and leaves lbar and bams(which I thought shouldnt be used outside the deep tropics) I think it would be better to include all of them to get the whole picture but anyways...GFS shoots it ssw and back into SF after building the ridge back in..

[Ivanhater]

BTW the 18z HWRF and Nogaps shift south..(Should put these in that chart as well)

[RL3AO]

It would be scary to get an organized storm entering the GOM. Dolly wasn't that well organized when she entered and Edouard never really got organized.

[GreenSky]

No idea why wxman doesnt put in models suck as the Euro, gfs , cmc and others and leaves lbar and bams(which I thought shouldnt be used outside the deep tropics) I think it would be better to include all of them to get the whole picture but anyways...GFS shoots it ssw and back into SF after building the ridge back in..

Link to GFS please?

By the way, now that GFDL and UKMET as well as BAM models show recurvature or Carolina impact, I believe that GFS will show the same trend in its next run...looks like Florida might be spared if this holds true

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL has a cat 3 just east of Florida Penninsula.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Hmmm very interesting GFDL does suggest its going to try and lift out and maybe take a Floyd type track still hard to know what will happen.

[deltadog03]

Well, its all going to depend on the development first...and then how strong will the ridge be. The euro being the strongest and GFS being the weakest.

[Bocadude85]

Whats interesting is that some models have this "storm" going through the Florida straights while other have it turning NW just of the coast of Florida.. well the not so happy median would be landfall in Florida.

[KWT]

Interesting Deltadog, the GFS has a bad habit of overdoing weakness, ECM has somewhat a habit of overdoing ridges outside 120hrs, conclusion would be a track somewhat between the two which would bring it so close to Florida that it may not matter whether it makes landfall or not.

[Ivanhater]

No idea why wxman doesnt put in models suck as the Euro, gfs , cmc and others and leaves lbar and bams(which I thought shouldnt be used outside the deep tropics) I think it would be better to include all of them to get the whole picture but anyways...GFS shoots it ssw and back into SF after building the ridge back in..

Link to GFS please?

By the way, now that GFDL and UKMET as well as BAM models show recurvature or Carolina impact, I believe that GFS will show the same trend in its next run...looks like Florida might be spared if this holds true

Wunderground had the simple line format but not on there anymore, but if you can follow these maps here it is stalled and moved back sw now hitting SF..

[SouthFLTropics]

Hmmm very interesting GFDL does suggest its going to try and lift out and maybe take a Floyd type track still hard to know what will happen.

I remember Floyd all too well...A very close call for us here on the Treasure Coast. In the end, Irene gave us more problems later in the 99 season than Floyd did. We all sat and watched to TV and waited for the "turn" to take place...until then we were staring down the barrel of a loaded gun and holding our breath.

An obvious difference between 92L and Floyd is that 92L is coming at an earlier time in the season as compared to Floyd. With a track like the GFDL is showing a few miles could make a big difference and the time of year could play a factor as to how strong the ridge or trough would be.

I really don't want a repeat of the Floyd preparations nightmare...Some very stressed people in the area at the time...

[hawkeh]

I really hope that GFDL does not pan out. Reminds me way too much of Floyd...

[Scorpion]

Well the HWRF has come on board, so thats pretty significant in terms of development chances.

[Vortex]

18 Z Nogaps now has a direct hit on SE Florida


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=144

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFDL has a cat 3 just east of Florida Penninsula.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Nasty scenario! If the GFDL were to play out, then the east coast would be battered by waves and squalls all day on Monday lasting into Tuesday. Also, any deviation further west would be absolutely horrible for the sunshine state.

[Brent]

18z GFDL has a cat 3 just east of Florida Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WOW. Reminds me of another F storm.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 140021
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0021 UTC THU AUG 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080814 0000 080814 1200 080815 0000 080815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 59.0W 17.4N 61.2W 18.4N 63.5W 19.4N 65.9W
BAMD 16.7N 59.0W 17.3N 61.2W 17.9N 63.5W 18.3N 66.0W
BAMM 16.7N 59.0W 17.2N 61.3W 17.7N 63.7W 18.2N 66.4W
LBAR 16.7N 59.0W 17.4N 61.5W 18.3N 64.3W 19.1N 66.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080816 0000 080817 0000 080818 0000 080819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 68.1W 21.6N 71.5W 23.2N 74.3W 25.1N 76.8W
BAMD 18.5N 68.4W 19.3N 72.8W 21.1N 76.3W 23.1N 78.7W
BAMM 18.7N 68.8W 19.4N 73.1W 20.9N 76.4W 22.5N 78.5W
LBAR 20.1N 69.5W 21.6N 73.8W 24.2N 75.9W 27.6N 76.5W
SHIP 52KTS 68KTS 78KTS 82KTS
DSHP 40KTS 35KTS 32KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 59.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 54.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Well nearly all models are now showing something developing from 92L, esp near the Bahamas region, even the GFS has a closed isobar at one point for 92l

[gtsmith]

Hmmm very interesting GFDL does suggest its going to try and lift out and maybe take a Floyd type track still hard to know what will happen.

I remember Floyd all too well...A very close call for us here on the Treasure Coast. In the end, Irene gave us more problems later in the 99 season than Floyd did. We all sat and watched to TV and waited for the "turn" to take place...until then we were staring down the barrel of a loaded gun and holding our breath.

An obvious difference between 92L and Floyd is that 92L is coming at an earlier time in the season as compared to Floyd. With a track like the GFDL is showing a few miles could make a big difference and the time of year could play a factor as to how strong the ridge or trough would be.

I really don't want a repeat of the Floyd preparations nightmare...Some very stressed people in the area at the time...

Floyd was really my first Florida storm that I had to prepare for...I had only been in West Palm for two years at the time...seems like ages ago after living through Francis, Jeanne and Wilma. But yeah, I do remember watching and waiting for the turn, it looked like it was coming right for us...

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of quite a few different models, including the consensus and corrected consensus model runs. It's pretty clear that there's agreement in a NW-N turn around day 4. Question is, does the turn come before, at, or west of Florida?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/AL92ModelsAug13.gif

Just this morning you had the low plotted through the Keys/Straits into the Gulf and less than 12 hours later it's turning north east of SFL?

I was thinking the same thing.

I don't make the models, I only posted what they were saying. Obviously, they're seeing something different now. That happens quite a bit with tropical systems, particularly when steering currents become very weak (as I stated this morning).