ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

Still has a long way to go, but I dare say "it" is on its way...As Derek has said, the inflow is much better today...

[KWT]

The next 24hrs are really key, because this is when most of the models started to show some slow development of this system.

the thing I'm most worried about is when this reaches the Bahamas region and possibly close to Florida, previous systems have really strengthened well in that reigon before...obviously the worst case has to be another 1935 hurricane but thats very much the worst case...

[RL3AO]

NHC kept it orange.

It has been a while that you dont post your table for the TWOS.

Well the NHC kind of took that over.

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

Lol at first I thought you made a typo and meant decreasing

Oh boy...Derek is getting onboard with the development of this system...It's time for me to REALLY start paying attention...When Derek speaks, I listen

I'll bet that by Sunday afternoon the media is going to be going bonkers over this here in SF

South Florida Media --->

[expat2carib]

The system passed by closed to this island today.

Very strange weather. NO winds, very humid and totally clouded.

It felt like something sticked a straw -from above -through all the clouds and was draining everything below the clouds for all energy.

No breeze, humid....and unusual. Felt like she will become a mean lady.

[storms in NC]

NHC kept it orange.

It has been a while that you dont post your table for the TWOS.

Well the NHC kind of took that over.

There you are I asked who did this last year?

[hurricanefloyd5]

tHIS MAY NOT BE MUCH BUT THE gfs MODELMOVES IT NORTH THEN BACK SOUTH ABIT AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST!!!!!!!

[carolina_73]

Looking good. IMO we will be looking at a depression tomorrow night. I have a feeling if organization continues this could really start to ramp up in the Bahamas. There sure is alot of warm ocean temps in that area to feed off of.

[Bocadude85]

tHIS MAY NOT BE MUCH BUT THE gfs MODELMOVES IT NORTH THEN BACK SOUTH ABIT AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST!!!!!!!

which would mean the ridge builds in.. wouldnt be surprised if it stalls in the bahamas and then gets trapped under the developing the ridge and begins to head west again.. perhaps a little like Frances?

[RL3AO]

There you are I asked who did this last year?

I did it last year.

[Brent]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

I'm officially onboard. I think it's a go.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

I'm officially onboard. I think it's a go.

LOL...Derek has spoken...

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,put this best track position in your always great graphics.

AL, 92, 2008081400, , BEST, 0, 167N, 590W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 80,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[fci]

The next 24hrs are really key, because this is when most of the models started to show some slow development of this system.

the thing I'm most worried about is when this reaches the Bahamas region and possibly close to Florida, previous systems have really strengthened well in that reigon before...obviously the worst case has to be another 1935 hurricane but thats very much the worst case...

I've been reading a lot of experts say that the next 24 hours will probably not show us much of anything in terms of development and that we are more than 24 hours before it will get much more organized (if at all).

Correct me if I am mistaken

[jaxfladude]

Well one thing is for certain, it will go through "Herbert Box" not good for us in Florida

The "Herbert Box" is the Bermuda Triangle of track projection.....

[txag2005]

HURAKAN,put this best track position in your always great graphics.

AL, 92, 2008081400, , BEST, 0, 167N, 590W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 80,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Where does that have this storm going?

[KWT]

I've been reading a lot of experts say that the next 24 hours will probably not show us much of anything in terms of development and that we are more than 24 hours before it will get much more organized (if at all).

Correct me if I am mistaken

It may not develop in 24hrs but we will have a very good idea if it is going to do so within the enxt 24hrs, it should become obvious something is up if we are to see formation within the next 36hrs.

Edit---convection now developing pretty close to where the old LLC was, now only just to the NE of it.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,put this best track position in your always great graphics.

AL, 92, 2008081400, , BEST, 0, 167N, 590W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 80,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Where does that have this storm going?

If you look at the 92L models thread,you can see all the model tracks.This best track product is what the models guidance use as their initial position.

[jlauderdal]

The next 24hrs are really key, because this is when most of the models started to show some slow development of this system.

the thing I'm most worried about is when this reaches the Bahamas region and possibly close to Florida, previous systems have really strengthened well in that reigon before...obviously the worst case has to be another 1935 hurricane but thats very much the worst case...

I've been reading a lot of experts say that the next 24 hours will probably not show us much of anything in terms of development and that we are more than 24 hours before it will get much more organized (if at all).

Correct me if I am mistaken

correct, in fact we have been hearing that since last sunday

[KWT]

Should be noted it needs to gain some latitude if its going to miss the big islands, extrap motion would take right down the heart of all the major Caribbean islands, needs a track of about 290 from now to avoid them totally IMO.