ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[msbee]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

Gee,thanks!
Just as it passes over us it should maintain it's convection, right?

[jlauderdal]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

be careful scorp, early next week you might be wishing it did go poof

[fci]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

Living in Florida, why would you hope it doesn't dissipate? You aren't actually pulling for it to develop, are you?

Yeah, I think Scorpion may have skipped the middle step of:
Type-----------Review-------------Submit.

Well, I live nearby and have NO DESIRE to see any intensification whatsoever given where the Pros see this possibly headed.
I firmly vote for "dissipate"

[Scorpion]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

Gee,thanks!
Just as it passes over us it should maintain it's convection, right?

You guys could use the rain.

[TrekkerCC]

(....wishing PR radar had a "vertical cross-section" view, wherein I could see how tall everything is as it passes by....)

The PR radar is a standard NEXRAD radar site, and so it will scan slices of the atmosphere just like any other NEXRAD radar site. Just fire up Level II data in any radar viewing software of your choice (level II viewer), and you'll get a reasonable "vertical cross-section" of the storm.

[tpr1967]

Here is radar view from the leeward islands. Should be interesting to see as our disturbance moves westward.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Honeyko]

12z Guadeloupe sounding showed that low to mid level shear has lowed to 20kt or so, down from 30kts last night.

Ah-hah! I knew it. That layer was the hot layer preventing CBs from really mushrooming. That aspect, more than shear, was killing the system. Now that it's weakened, 92 can finally enter an intensification phase.

Observe high pressure building in a semi-circle around the storm to the NW-N-NE. That is an extremely favorable layout for fast development.

[terrapintransit]

It appears FAY is waking up and she may have a bit of a temper........

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

Heres the 0z Guadelope sounding. Shear is basically none.

Code: Select all

   PRES   HGHT   TEMP   DWPT   RELH   MIXR   DRCT   SKNT   THTA   THTE   THTV
    hPa     m      C      C      %    g/kg    deg   knot     K      K      K
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1011.0     11   26.6   24.4     88  19.47     10      4  298.8  355.8  302.3
 1000.0    108   27.0   24.6     87  19.94     10      6  300.1  358.9  303.7
  999.0    117   27.0   24.6     87  19.96     10      6  300.2  359.1  303.8
  955.0    514   24.2   21.6     85  17.29     10     15  301.3  352.4  304.4
  925.0    795   22.2   19.4     84  15.58      0     14  302.0  348.2  304.8
  889.0   1139   19.8   16.6     82  13.55    347     12  303.0  343.3  305.4
  869.0   1335   19.1   15.7     81  13.11    340     11  304.2  343.5  306.6
  850.0   1525   18.4   14.9     80  12.69    350     11  305.4  343.6  307.7
  791.0   2140   16.2   12.2     77  11.41     14     12  309.4  344.4  311.5
  758.0   2502   14.8    6.8     59   8.24     28     13  311.7  337.4  313.2
  711.0   3039   11.4   -5.6     30   3.56     50     15  313.7  325.3  314.4
  701.0   3157   10.8    4.8     66   7.75     55     15  314.3  338.8  315.8
  700.0   3169   10.8    3.8     62   7.23     55     15  314.4  337.4  315.8
  697.0   3205   10.7    2.7     58   6.72     55     15  314.7  336.1  316.0
  665.0   3596    9.8   -9.2     25   2.88     60     15  317.9  327.6  318.5
  649.0   3798    8.6   -1.4     49   5.35     63     15  318.8  336.3  319.8
  636.0   3965    7.6  -11.4     25   2.53     65     15  319.5  328.1  320.0
  618.0   4201    6.2   -6.8     39   3.74     68     15  320.5  333.0  321.2
  590.0   4579    3.6  -21.4     14   1.18     73     15  321.8  326.0  322.0
  522.0   5560   -2.5  -41.5      3   0.19     85     15  325.9  326.7  325.9
  500.0   5900   -4.9  -25.9     18   0.93     90     15  327.0  330.4  327.2
  488.0   6091   -6.1  -23.1     25   1.23     92     15  327.8  332.3  328.1
  477.0   6269   -7.3  -54.3      1   0.05     94     15  328.5  328.7  328.5
  401.0   7601  -16.3  -31.3     26   0.70    110     15  333.5  336.2  333.6
  400.0   7620  -16.3  -31.3     26   0.70    110     15  333.7  336.4  333.9
  378.0   8041  -19.3  -41.7     12   0.26    115     15  335.2  336.3  335.3
  365.0   8302  -21.1  -48.1      7   0.13    109     15  336.2  336.7  336.2
  345.0   8716  -23.9  -29.9     58   0.93     99     14  337.8  341.4  338.0
  328.0   9082  -26.6  -42.4     21   0.28     90     14  339.1  340.2  339.1
  326.0   9126  -26.9  -43.9     18   0.24     92     14  339.2  340.2  339.2
  310.0   9487  -29.7  -35.7     56   0.59    106     10  340.2  342.6  340.3
  300.0   9720  -31.3  -38.3     50   0.47    115      8  341.1  343.0  341.2
  292.0   9910  -32.7  -41.7     40   0.34    123      6  341.8  343.2  341.9
  280.0  10202  -34.8  -40.8     54   0.39    135      4  342.9  344.5  343.0
  276.0  10302  -35.5  -40.5     60   0.41    135      5  343.3  345.0  343.4
  258.0  10766  -39.1  -75.1      1   0.01    135      8  344.7  344.7  344.7

[jlauderdal]

(....wishing PR radar had a "vertical cross-section" view, wherein I could see how tall everything is as it passes by....)

i can slice up their radar with grlevel2, they arent in super high res yet but they have digital that can be sliced

[cycloneye]

Continues on a west track.Off-Topic=By the way,you can see ex 93L pulsing up.

[terrapintransit]

Continues on a west track.Off-Topic=By the way,you can see ex 93L pulsing up.

[quote="cycloneye"]Continues



Just what is all that convection below 93L?? Sorry more Off-Topic but just had to ask...

[cycloneye]

Just what is all that convection below 93L?? Sorry more Off-Topic but just had to ask...

ITCZ related.

[93superstorm]

92l is looking very good at the moment and has a more spin to it. Looks like we may be looking at Fay very soon, looks like its faning out:

[jabber]

Continues on a west track.Off-Topic=By the way,you can see ex 93L pulsing up.

Continues



Just what is all that convection below 93L?? Sorry more Off-Topic but just had to ask...

Normal ITCZ...

[MGC]

92L is acquiring that "look" disturbances get just before upgrade. Outflow has really improved today, convection has increased near the center and there is a spin in 92L. Checked out the WV loop and shear is light out ahead of 92L projected path. I would not be surprised if 92L was upgraded by late tomorrow if these trends continue......MGC

[jabber]

Continues on a west track.Off-Topic=By the way,you can see ex 93L pulsing up.

Continues



Just what is all that convection below 93L?? Sorry more Off-Topic but just had to ask...

For more info see...

http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/~bgordon/ITCZ.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC appears to be forming near 16.8 north/58.4 west. It appears to have inflow starting to form, also the convection is developing just to its north. That convection is trying to form over it. I think if the environment is favorable enough it could go for it.

[msbee]

Continues on a west track.Off-Topic=By the way,you can see ex 93L pulsing up.

That sure looks like it is coming straight at us Luis
it looks like due west
Barbara