5 Pm advisory=Moving NNW 24.7n=91.1w TPC admits jog to north

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:42 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... v_nt4.html

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... /MIATCPAT4

Now moving very slowly NNW.Still no watches for anyplace in the gulf coast.

wrkh99 · #2 Postby **wrkh99** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:43 pm

4pm adv .... Why don't you change it

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:48 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt4.html

Discussion of 4 Pm CDT- 5 PM EDT read it carefully as they admit the north jog.

#4 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:54 pm

Claudette, if she survives, is going to have to take a fairly drastic turn left to satisfy the progged track of which NHC is clinging to.

Is anyone else growing skeptical of this "mouth of the Rio Grande" landfall business?

wrkh99 · #5 Postby **wrkh99** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:56 pm

Your missing the point.

The adv came out at 4pm Not 5pm . You should type it like the NHC says .

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 3:58 pm

Yes, I am skeptical, as well, Portastorm.

#7 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 4:01 pm

I guess in defense of NHC (and modeling), it might be difficult to forecast the track of a storm that shifts its center on a regular basis.

It seems like this new center is under the convection that fired up today and who knows what else may transpire in the next 24hrs in terms of this storm shifting itself again.

Man, this has been one unpredictable system.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 4:04 pm

This has been a very difficult system to forecast as intensity goes and about the track it has been good until this moment where anything can happen if it stalls for a good period of time but it is expected to turn more to the west but wont have Brownsville as the target but a little more north.

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 4:05 pm

The center is exposed again. I think this batch of convection will die off and move NNE. Look for a refire near the center tonight. In the mean time, the LLC will remain stationary now that the convection is decreasing. It may take another jog north as the next batch fires up later. I still think a west track is in order though tomorrow. The question then becomes...how far north will it go before it turns west?

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 4:06 pm

Yes, indeed. The system with multiple vorticies, now slowing down and other variables coming into play can seriously "confuse" the forecast models (and National Hurricane Center official forecast tracks).

There shouldn't be confidence in a southern Texas landfall when things aren't exactly falling into place with Claudette.

#11 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 4:09 pm

Yeah, good points Cycloneye and Air Force Met!

Any of you folks from Port O'Connor to Houston ... you're not out of the woods yet. Another jog north and this storm would have to hit the TX Coast going southwest to hit Brownsville.

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 5:15 pm

As for the southwest movement (to hit BRO), the winds from the surface through 500mb (18000ft) by tomorrow are forecast to be from the N-NE across the NW Gulf. So a WSW movement is certainly not out of the question, as Claudette is a weak (i.e., low-level) storm that would be steered by these lower-level winds.

Lindaloo · #13 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 6:19 pm

wrkh99 wrote:Your missing the point.

The adv came out at 4pm Not 5pm . You should type it like the NHC says .

What does it matter? Is it that big of a deal? :lol:

Guest · #14 Postby **Guest** » Sat Jul 12, 2003 7:08 pm

Well here is my guess at what she may do..................Now notice i have on the map below Chance for a hit and a best chance which i surely hope everyone understands..............BTW where there is no roange or red painted in on the coast that pretty much means imo that Claudette has a very small chance of hitting.................Like Wxman57 said i have seen the high building to the north however from the water vapor image it shows that the trough or high whatever you wanna call it has stopped moving south as seen by the Drier air which seems to be sitting just above the upper TX coast and runs ENE from there..............Now remembering this is July normally these kinds of patterns normally dont last long! (Bermuda High, ETC)But of course with the year we have been having nothing seems to be out of the question.....................Anyways with all considered above i have done the map below for the purpose of the areas i see at risk for a landfall and who may get some of the stronger winds from her.......................

5 Pm advisory=Moving NNW 24.7n=91.1w TPC admits jog to north

5 Pm advisory=Moving NNW 24.7n=91.1w TPC admits jog to north

Southwest movement

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