ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cheezyWXguy]

my best position is 17.2n 60w

That maybe true for now, but it will either likely get pulled north into the convection, reform, or pull the convection southward.

[Zip]

Dear lord, Fay, have some decency![/quote]

That is priceless...Gives new meaning to the term "naked swirl"[/quote]
Im sorry i dont get it...i dont see a naked llc anywhere. just a strong mlc with a possible developing llc beneath it
sorry im acting like buzz killington from family guy.[/quote]

I think that the laday does not have an eye feature, but she can see with her "headlights", and what a set they are, too!
Zip (I'm the one responsible for the not pc explanation)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

my best position is 17.2n 60w

Way to far west. The inflow is around 58-58.5 west with a south to north flow moving into the system. You can see a streamer of low clouds doing just that. Also some low clouds moving westward around the southern part. I feel the recon "could" find us a weak LLC for a upgrade. Now the nhc might feel on holding back on this.

[haml8]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Looks like it's bouncing back a little. What are your thoughts on whether this latest burst will die off tonight?

The way this area has taken most of us on a roller coaster ride so far I doubt that anyone would be willing to put money on a 50/50 guess

[Honeyko]

What causes a storm, say Katrina, to grow so large in diameter, and a storm like the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 to remain small and tightly wound?

Time. Show me a "tinycane", and I'll show you a storm murdered by land or a with a tight recurve track (indicating upper-level shear). Otherwise, very powerful small storms turn into very powerful big storms fast.

Other than time, speed/location is probably the most important secondary factor; fast-moving low-latitude hurricanes tend to be smaller than lumbering storms around 25N or semi-subtropical systems farther north.

Basically, when stuff ain't messin' with ya, you can get big and fat.

[Aric Dunn]

my best position is 17.2n 60w

Way to far west. The inflow is around 58-58.5 west with a south to north flow moving into the system. You can see a streamer of low clouds doing just that. Also some low clouds moving westward around the southern part. I feel the recon "could" find us a weak LLC for a upgrade. Now the nhc might feel on holding back on this.

no see the convection is being sustained by the southerly inflow the center is not under that ball yet!! i say yet..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would place the center closer to 59-59.5W, in between both of your estimates. It is a little hard to tell at night though without visible imagery.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like the 00z GFS doesn't really like 92L. Takes it as a closed low towards FL peninsula then kinda just drops it. The high building to the north holds strong on this run. Looks like that high will likely be in place. Uh oh.

[txag2005]

Looks like the 00z GFS doesn't really like 92L. Takes it as a closed low towards FL peninsula then kinda just drops it. The high building to the north holds strong on this run. Looks like that high will likely be in place. Uh oh.

I am a newbie so i don't understand really, but does that mean this model doesn't really develop 92L?

[Honeyko]

***IF YOU ARE UNDER 18, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS IMAGE OR IT MAY BLIND YOU***

<...snort Mountain Dew out the nose...>

Wardrobe Malfunction!

[haml8]

Recon seems to be heading into more interesting waters....

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the 00z GFS doesn't really like 92L. Takes it as a closed low towards FL peninsula then kinda just drops it. The high building to the north holds strong on this run. Looks like that high will likely be in place. Uh oh.

I am a newbie so i don't understand really, but does that mean this model doesn't really develop 92L?

right in literal understanding..
but in actual we dont know the strength thats the hardest part. but what you want to look at is trend and the over all steering paterns that are being forecast i.e large scale systems troughs, ridges etc.. they help us determine its potential path. after that we worry about intensity as it can change in a matter of hours..

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like the 00z GFS doesn't really like 92L. Takes it as a closed low towards FL peninsula then kinda just drops it. The high building to the north holds strong on this run. Looks like that high will likely be in place. Uh oh.

I am a newbie so i don't understand really, but does that mean this model doesn't really develop 92L?

Yes. You can click the link below. These charts are VERY hard for me to read but you can see where the "L" (low) is and the circular lines that bend around it, indicating it it closed. Then, as the run progresses forward into the future prediction, it dissipates 92L altogether. You might expect it to "develop" the system by showing more circular lines around an "L" and different colors as the low deepens.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

check out how fast that upper low is moving out of the way now.. upper environment should be great for the next couple of days

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would place the center closer to 59-59.5W, in between both of your estimates. It is a little hard to tell at night though without visible imagery.

As I look at it closer you maybe right. It appears the inflow is around 58.5 moving south to north into it...While north to south flow is around 60 west, meaning nortly winds. It appears to be around 17.3/59.4 if you connect the dots. I was looking at the possiblity of a tight LLC near the inflow at 58.4. Which is still possible but 17.3/59.4 is more likely for a broad LLC center...Which means under the western side of the convection.

This is a very small system, with already some outflow. I would not be at all suprized to see the recon find a closed LLC.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

[RL3AO]

Looks like the MLC is near 17.5N, 60.0W per recon.

[GeneratorPower]

What we are all watching is the dominant "H" (high pressure) running all the way across the Atlantic and over Florida. Hurricanes are generally repelled by high pressure, and will follow the edge of the high. The GFS above is showing us that high pressure may be in place, which would prevent 92L from turning north. It would go around the edge of the high pressure (also called a ridge) possibly over the FL keys and then possibly turning north after that as it nears the far western edge of that ridge.

[HURAKAN]

So far no west winds.

[Aric Dunn]

So far no west winds.

they are at 11,000 ft ..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So far no west winds.

This storm has been a pain in the butt. Like every storm this season right back to Bertha.