Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[GreenSky]

I know I have been reiterating that 92L might miss Florida, but then again it looks like it might track through the Herbert Box as a tropical storm...and you know what that means

[Cyclenall]

I just had a massive Deja Vu when I got to the last post just now. I've seen this exact situation somewhere else before (TS Chris of 2006 is similar).

For the first time this 2008 season, the HWRF model is stronger then the GFDL!

[blp]

Wow! Oh Carolina! The EURO has jumped on the bandwagon. I can't remember a EURO run this strong.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081400!!/

[KWT]

Wow that ECM is real impressive, also note the high to the north should force it back NW towards the end of the run, pretty much drift NW by the end of the run, not great for the Carolinas...looks more and more like Floyd!

[GreenSky]

Wow that ECM is real impressive, also note the high to the north should force it back NW towards the end of the run, pretty much drift NW by the end of the run, not great for the Carolinas...looks more and more like Floyd!

exactly...this year's upper level wind pattern is not going to be a repeat of 2004/2005!
We're back to the late 90's and the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic hurricane era has returned.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO..EC'er...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081400!!/

[RL3AO]

Euro stalls it off Florida right over the gulf stream.

[Brent]

Wow! Oh Carolina! The EURO has jumped on the bandwagon. I can't remember a EURO run this strong.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081400!!/

WOW. I can't believe it's still there in TEN days.

[KWT]

Not just that Brent but also the fact its so strong in 10 days time as well

[blp]

Wow that ECM is real impressive, also note the high to the north should force it back NW towards the end of the run, pretty much drift NW by the end of the run, not great for the Carolinas...looks more and more like Floyd!

exactly...this year's upper level wind pattern is not going to be a repeat of 2004/2005!
We're back to the late 90's and the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic hurricane era has returned.

We need to see a few more runs before we can say that for sure. The one thing I remember from Floyd is that there was an awfully strong trough that really dug down to catch it. Also, acording to this EURO it needs to grab it down by Cuba and basically move it almost North. Interesting scenario.....

[Brent]

Not just that Brent but also the fact its so strong in 10 days time as well

I don't think I've ever seen the Euro that strong in the long range like that.

[blp]

Not just that Brent but also the fact its so strong in 10 days time as well

I don't think I've ever seen the Euro that strong in the long range like that.

I made that same comment above.. impressive...

[KWT]

There have been other times the ECM has been that intense before, the most noteable being Katrina where it modelled a 920mb hurricane which on the resolution of the ECM is super impressive.

[Meso]

See, now THAT'S what a major hurricane looks like on the EURO Almost all the models seem to be showing development to hurricane strength now. Though granted as it's been said many times before, wait for the system to become a depression and then look at the model runs, far likely to be more accurate. But with the way 92l looks it shouldn't be too long for that

[blp]

There have been other times the ECM has been that intense before, the most noteable being Katrina where it modelled a 920mb hurricane which on the resolution of the ECM is super impressive.

Yea, I probably missed that because I had no power for a week after Katrina hit Miami. Sure is impressive though. Timing is going to be so critical with this thing.

[Meso]

CMC is likely very off, long range CMC is likely very very off.. But for interest' sake



Thar in the gulf

[Meso]

Majority of the models turning the storm North

[deltadog03]

Even with the HWRF and GFDL it builds the ridge over the top and they would still either hook back into florida or plow in GA.

[jlauderdal]

Even with the HWRF and GFDL it builds the ridge over the top and they would still either hook back into florida or plow in GA.

that would be quite a turn back to the west based on the current runs

[MiamiensisWx]

It is important to note that 92L will be moving south of some models within the short term.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

I'm still not sold on a non-Florida threat down the road.