Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[deltadog03]

Looks like GFDL is already going to be too far to the right in the shorterm. Can't really see this moving at 290 already.

[KWT]

Yep looks like the models are tracking a little too north to start with...also should be noted that very often the GFS does have a right bias. Still comes close to the US coast line and due north or even NNE would make this a threat to the Carolinas as well like the ECM suggest.

[Bocadude85]

I still can figure this out.. how does a strom turn due north into a building high? The only thing I can think of is the high stays south of Florida keeping us in a SW flow...?

[KWT]

The high is building but a weakness does seem to open up...I highly doubt its enough to tilt it more then maybe due north, can't see any track east of north, not yet anyway IF the GFDL is correct of course!

[BobHarlem]

I'm not so sure the models have been trending to the north toward the end for a while now, so there's probably something to that. I think not affecting Florida is more likely, but this system unfortunately seems set up for a high amount of wishing one way or the other.

[HURAKAN]

916
WHXX01 KWBC 141244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC THU AUG 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080814 1200 080815 0000 080815 1200 080816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 62.1W 18.5N 64.7W 19.2N 67.4W 20.0N 69.9W
BAMD 17.9N 62.1W 18.5N 64.3W 18.8N 66.8W 19.3N 69.4W
BAMM 17.9N 62.1W 18.4N 64.6W 18.8N 67.3W 19.5N 69.8W
LBAR 17.9N 62.1W 18.6N 64.6W 19.3N 67.1W 19.9N 69.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080816 1200 080817 1200 080818 1200 080819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 72.2W 21.4N 75.5W 22.7N 77.4W 23.4N 78.4W
BAMD 20.0N 71.8W 22.0N 75.3W 25.0N 76.4W 28.1N 75.3W
BAMM 20.0N 72.2W 21.4N 75.7W 23.2N 77.3W 24.3N 78.0W
LBAR 20.3N 72.0W 21.9N 75.9W 24.4N 77.9W 27.3N 78.1W
SHIP 58KTS 71KTS 78KTS 80KTS
DSHP 51KTS 64KTS 71KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 62.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 59.1W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 56.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[boca]

At least the threat to Florida seemed to have lessened.

[bucman1]

Boca,

As you know the models will change 10 times before now and landfall.

Were basing this all on the synoptics playing out and their actually being a big enough weaknes in the high.

[DESTRUCTION5]

At least the threat to Florida seemed to have lessened.

Never seen the Modeling shift 50 miles West huh boca? LOL..If it did in this case its in your back yard...

[Meso]

One may note that 2 of the BAM models are slightly further South as of the 12z run. And they're the only ones, those and the CMC which are really new runs

[SouthFLTropics]

At least the threat to Florida seemed to have lessened.

Let's hope that it stays that way...Unfortunately it is probably too early to know...I think Sunday will be a very telling afternoon.

SouthFLTropics

[boca]

Lets see what the models do with 92L once they initiate a center for this potential system.Then the models can actually latch on to something.

[KWT]

Yeah I think to say the threat has gone down for Florida is probably not all that true, the system still looks like coming close enough to Florida on some models to give TS force winds and thats assuming that the models are right and haven't gone too far east again.

[Bocadude85]

As well all know the models will flip flop over the next few days.. this storm reminds me of Frances all over again.. weak steering currents near Florida and all of the models turning her up the coast headed for the Carolinas.. also take note that the 5 day track error for models averages a few hundred miles..

[jlauderdal]

At least the threat to Florida seemed to have lessened.

Never seen the Modeling shift 50 miles West huh boca? LOL..If it did in this case its in your back yard...

yeah, or if the system continues on for 6 hours longer westward than modeled than boca has system at the hillsboro inlet, lol

[boca]

At least the threat to Florida seemed to have lessened.

Never seen the Modeling shift 50 miles West huh boca? LOL..If it did in this case its in your back yard...

yeah, or if the system continues on for 6 hours longer westward than modeled than boca has system at the hillsboro inlet, lol

Thats funny.

[gatorcane]

Guys on the models ---- we should NOT be jumping on ephemeral trends. The general direction is Bahamas and South Florida. That hasn't changed much albeit some have moved right but with weak steering currents.

We need to look for persistent trends not make predictions on just one run. What makes me a bit irritated is that I hear a forecast on the radio indicating that South Florida does not need to worry because it should go Northeast of South Florida. That is terrible forecasting if you ask me.

[Stratosphere747]

I think it would be wise to let go of the fixation with the GFDL runs...

[KWT]

Yep Gatorcane, the models have also been known to shift about, esp outside 72hrs and given how close its going to come to florida I think we really need to keep an eye on them because they are likely to shift about again, 50-100 miles shifts are not uncommon outside 96hrs and besides Bahamas will likely see something from this.

[Bocadude85]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081406

o6z nogaps has this slam into extreme souther florida