ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[canegrl04]

Wow thats starting to get a classic look now, MLC is so powerful now and you've got to believe there is a LLC there now surely!

Looks like a TS already...scary!

I think thats just what recon will find when the numbers come in. If Fay doesn't recurve before reaching Florida,we may have a major 'cane on our hands

[KWT]

Yep indeed gatorcane, our best hope is this pulls another Chris 06...

I think also some of the islands may have flooding problems even if the system does end up going just to the north of the islands.

Its not Fay yet but its got a fair chance in the next 12-24hrs clearly.

[Sanibel]

What it is doing right now tells you no Chris - unless it crashes on the majors.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow thats starting to get a classic look now, MLC is so powerful now and you've got to believe there is a LLC there now surely!

Looks like a TS already...scary!

I think thats just what recon will find when the numbers come in. If Fay doesn't recurve before reaching Florida,we may have a major 'cane on our hands

im pretty sure they will find TS winds at flight level some where in there, cause that is some very impressive convection. as for a well defined LLC, well that remains to be seen but in all likely hood it should be taking shape shortly..

[HURAKAN]

Yep indeed gatorcane, our best hope is this pulls another Chris 06...

For South Florida Debby 2000 and Chris 2006 were two occasions in which we felt the cannon was pointing at us but nothing happened. Lets see what future-Fay does.

[cycloneye]

Yep indeed gatorcane, our best hope is this pulls another Chris 06...

I think also some of the islands may have flooding problems even if the system does end up going just to the north of the islands.

Its not Fay yet but its got a fair chance in the next 12-24hrs clearly.

Hurricane Donna in 1960 caused major floodings and many mudslides here and passed around 100 miles north of San Juan.

[Sabanic]

The timing of the high, and when it builds back in will be the determining factor. Looks like some sleepless nights in the near future

[gatorcane]

I want everybody to check out the very symmetric outflow over 92L. The shear is basically nonexistent at the moment, quite a contrast from 48 hours ago when the TUTT was ripping into it. With these kind of conditions, development is likely.

[Sanibel]

My eye tells me you aren't going to get a strong High in between that trough remnant and the continental steering currents. The models must be seeing that too.

[KWT]

Exactly cycloneye, either way doesn't look good though hopefully it won't be too extreme and just ease the dryness round there.

Aric, yeah I agree given how deep that convection there may well be winds close to tropical storm status but will it have the defined LLC, thats the big question?!

[msbee]

Starting to look a little more ominous here.
Everything still incredibly still.

[Aric Dunn]

I want everybody to check out the very symmetric outflow over 92L. The shear is basically nonexistent at the moment, quite a contrast from 48 hours ago when the TUTT was ripping into it.

tutts can both kill a system and provide a excelent outflow setup
which by the way is whats accuring now .. very classic

[hurricanefloyd5]

are we at the point to were the stronger this storm gets the farther west it gose and the weaker it is the farther north it gose?????????

[Sanibel]

Classic heavy-mover storm bands msbee. Telegraphing hurricane.

[Fego]

I just talked with a friend in the San Juan NWS and he told me that Miami (NHC) will not upgrade 92L until they receive all the data from the recon. Then, in any case, the upgrade will be at 5 pm. But the NWS is expecting to issue a special statement at 3' o clock.

[Evil Jeremy]

I bet my life savings that we get our first advisory at 5 PM. They have no reason not to. Actually, we could get one sooner once Recon gets into the storms. It would not surprise me because of its proximity to the islands.

[KWT]

Yep gatorcane the upper high is really helping this system out in a big way, clearly the outflow is very impressive right now!

[txag2005]

What time does recon head out today?

[loro-rojo]

I just talked with a friend in the San Juan NWS and he told me that Miami (NHC) will not upgrade 92L until they receive all the data from the recon. Then, in any case, the upgrade will be at 5 pm. But the NWS is expecting to issue a special statement at 3' o clock.

Well... considering how close the system is to land, it is possible that the NHC could issue its first advisory between 11am-5pm (if recon finds data to suport it).

[CronkPSU]

can anyone tell me what effect this long line of thunderstorms coming across central florida right now will have? seems in the past cold fronts like this have pushed storms out to sea