Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[RL3AO]

Flight level and SFMR winds support a depression.

How can winds support a depression? There is no wind speed needed for a depression?

[KWT]

Well thus far still no sign of a LLC, not surprising given its only starting to look decent for 3-6hrs really.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flight level and SFMR winds support a depression.

How can winds support a depression? There is no wind speed needed for a depression?

True, but when the winds are 35 mph and you have a closed LLC, they call a depression, unless they go into looking for consistency over some period.

So with the winds at 35 mph and increasing at flight level, it depends on an LLC. If it has an LLC, being this close to land and it increasing in strength still, a depression would be called.

[HURAKAN]

It seems they are running a little bit late. Nothing yet.

[x-y-no]

Is this NOAA flight going to be another high altitude research flight, or a low altitude one?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the flights scheduled for today are for the surface to 10,000 or 14,000 FT

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force recon today:
SFC TO 10,000 FT

NOAA recon today:
10,000 TO 14,000 FT

So expect the NOAA recon to not be imminently as helpful due to their altitude and pattern. Of course NOAA recon is having some problems at the moment with invalid wind speeds rather often. Hopefully that gets worked out.

[x-y-no]

Air Force recon today:
SFC TO 10,000 FT

NOAA recon today:
10,000 TO 14,000 FT

So expect the NOAA recon to not be imminently as helpful due to their altitude and pattern. Of course NOAA recon is having some problems at the moment with invalid wind speeds rather often. Hopefully that gets worked out.

OK, thanks. That's what I was expecting. Anyway, not too long now before the AF flight heads out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

They are sending back some bogus data, like 140 knot winds...

[HurricaneBelle]

They are sending back some bogus data, like 140 knot winds...

To paraphrase Mel Brooks, that wouldn't be rapid intensification - it would be ludicrous intensification.

Here's hoping this storm doesn't go plaid.

[Chacor]

AF flight should leave in about 25 minutes.

[KWT]

I take it thats the main recon flight Chacor?

[Skyhawk]

163000 1750N 06156W 8410 01624 0125 +180 +173 191012 013 999 999 03
163030 1752N 06157W 8412 01621 0126 +178 +169 185013 014 999 999 03
163100 1754N 06157W 8412 01622 0127 +176 +173 182012 013 031 002 03

Flight level winds from the south indicates that the "center" is to the wnw!

[Frank2]

Interesting - light southerly winds found on the west side of the convection, so, either there is no LLC at this time (perhaps a MLC), or, the LLC is to the west (doesn't look that way), or, the LLC is to the east but very small...

We shall see...

[CrazyC83]

If the SFMR is accurate, this is a tropical storm if an LLC is found...

[AtlanticWind]

What are the top winds they are reporting?

[CrazyC83]

What are the top winds they are reporting?

SFMR has been as high as 35 kt, although flight level winds are no higher than 19 kt. That is at the outer edge too.

[Chacor]

Remember the NOAA research flight has had issues with wind gauges and its SFMR. Don't read into it, especially at this flight level. Better to wait for the lower-level AF flight.

[KWT]

Quite possibly Frank, there still may not be a LLC yet despite the powerful MLC, I think ones probably forming and the other recon plane will catch it later on.

[CrazyC83]

What would be the FL to surface conversion at 650mb - about 95%?