Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

If the GFS keeps it as an open wave this run Im at a loss

[Ivanhater]

Now we just have problems..another storm in the gulf...

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS on day 5

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

Wonder what if any effect that home-brew low in the Gulf would have ...

Track is still east of Florida, but what worries me is that outflow from a stronger storm than the GFS is depicting could pump up the upper/mid level ridging enough to push it just a tad further west, like the HPC forecast track.

[gatorcane]

when is the new model guidance expected to be issued?

[Aric Dunn]

Now we just have problems..another storm in the gulf...

yeah just saw that .. ok time to give up on the gfs for track.. just use it for synoptics.... lol

the interaction with a phantom tropical system compliactes things tremendously

[gatorcane]

looks like a double-blow at the same-time for FL. I would have low faith in the GFS run there

[Vortex]

12Z canadian

Takes it across the greater antilles to a postion over western cuba in about 4 days.


Day 6 blows up in the central gulf..

[Aric Dunn]

12Z canadian

Takes it across the greater antilles to a postion over western cuba in about 4 days.

lol yeah it did that yesterday too .. that

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at the water vapor loop. It sures looks like future Fay will be kicked out to sea. Unless that trough moves out.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Bocadude85]

I thought the 12z came out already?

[CrazyC83]

My analog for this seems to remain the 1919 Keys hurricane at this point...I think it will miss the trough and keep pulling west.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Canadian

[canegrl04]

looks like a double-blow at the same-time for FL. I would have low faith in the GFS run there

Last year with Dean,GFS kept it an open wave while GDFL had it a cat 5 .GFS is low credibility with intensity,and track forecast early on

[tampastorm]

Looking at the water vapor loop. It sures looks like future Fay will be kicked out to sea. Unless that trough moves out.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I think the trough is suppose to stall and retreat.

[Javlin]

Both the CMC and NOGAPS 12Z runs are out and are bending further W into the GOM "interesting" still need to see support from other models as well and trends.I thought the GFS,GFDL and the HWRF all pretty much ran off the same info and over played the strength's of ridging??

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps rolling in..

Initialized well and looks like St. Thomas and puerto rico may take it on the chin whatever that is..


H+12

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=012

[gatorcane]

Yeah just what I expected, I didn't buy an east of florida recurve and expected some left trends in the models and its already happening.

[KWT]

The thing is the Nogaps and CMC are really poor models when it comes to synoptic set-ups, at least compared with the ECM/GFS anyway. IF the ECM changes its mind in any big way on its next run then I'll be more interested. I doub the others such as GFDL will change given they do like a right turn.

[gtsmith]

For those who know, how would the two potential systems interact? Would they be pulled towards each other or repelled? Would the "potential" storm up by the panhandle pull what might be 92L further north? Can someone put in plain english how they might theoretically interact?

Thanks

[Javlin]

For those who know, how would the two potential systems interact? Would they be pulled towards each other or repelled? Would the "potential" storm up by the panhandle pull what might be 92L further north? Can someone put in plain english how they might theoretically interact?

Thanks

The GFS and CMC both like to create phantom low pressure systems into the future so don bite on that aspect yet.I have heard that the next front might not make it as far S as the last one did?