Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[NEXRAD]

For those who know, how would the two potential systems interact? Would they be pulled towards each other or repelled? Would the "potential" storm up by the panhandle pull what might be 92L further north? Can someone put in plain english how they might theoretically interact?

Thanks

If a low pressure were to develop offshore the FL Panhandle Sunday/Monday as the 12Z GFS showed, then the Panhandle low would likely enhance troughing across the Southeastern US for that time period, resulting in a greater liklihood for 92L to pull north and eventually northeast offshore Florida (assuming GFS/GFDL advertised forward motion). A good comparison for such a storm movement would be 2004's Bonnie and Charley, where Bonnie enhanced trough action over Florida and allowed Charley to pull farther east than most model guidance. Note that this comparison certainly does not mean if the Panhandle low develops 92L would move across Florida like Charley.

- Jay

[Javlin]

For those who know, how would the two potential systems interact? Would they be pulled towards each other or repelled? Would the "potential" storm up by the panhandle pull what might be 92L further north? Can someone put in plain english how they might theoretically interact?

Thanks

If a low pressure were to develop offshore the FL Panhandle Sunday/Monday as the 12Z GFS showed, then the Panhandle low would likely enhance troughing across the Southeastern US for that time period, resulting in a greater liklihood for 92L to pull north and eventually northeast offshore Florida (assuming GFS/GFDL advertised forward motion). A good comparison for such a storm movement would be 2004's Bonnie and Charley, where Bonnie enhanced trough action over Florida and allowed Charley to pull farther east than most model guidance. Note that this comparison certainly does not mean if the Panhandle low develops 92L would move across Florida like Charley.

- Jay

Good analogy there Jay but as you mentioned does the low develop?that's the question I guess that some of these models are hitching there forcast too.

[gtsmith]

For those who know, how would the two potential systems interact? Would they be pulled towards each other or repelled? Would the "potential" storm up by the panhandle pull what might be 92L further north? Can someone put in plain english how they might theoretically interact?

Thanks

The GFS and CMC both like to create phantom low pressure systems into the future so don bite on that aspect yet.I have heard that the next front might not make it as far S as the last one did?

I'm not biting on anything, I am curious as to how - let me be real clear here - theoretically two systems of this nature might interact...DISCLAIMER: I am not thinking there are two systems, that there will be two systems, or anything else based in reality or coming to fruition. This is PURELY a thought exercise only. I am curious as to how two systems of such a description would interact....And I am not trying to be snippy or anything, just trying to be real clear.

[NEXRAD]

Javlin,

I've not seen that low crop-up in the other models, so for now I'd count it as spurious.

- Jay

[DESTRUCTION5]

Javlin,

I've not seen that low crop-up in the other models, so for now I'd count it as spurious.

- Jay

Was gonna say its one run of the GFS...Would not ride home with it..

[txwatcher91]

Anybody seen the 0Z Euro, looks like a SC hit What are thoughts on this? It also makes it HUGE too.

[Ivanhater]

Another view of the Canadian...

[Blown Away]

Ivanhater, I have not seen the full Canadian run, did it move across the DR and Cuba as a very weak system then deepen after it moved in to the EGOM?

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, I have not seen the full Canadian run, did it move across the DR and Cuba as a very weak system then deepen after it moved in to the EGOM?

Here is the loop http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yeah keeps it weak as it tracks across the Islands then pulls up in the GOM

[Ivanhater]

12Z Nogaps still coming out, out to 120 hours..Florida Straights..

[rockyman]

looks like the 12z GFDL crosses 80W grazing the Florida coast

[Blown Away]

12Z Nogaps still coming out, out to 120 hours..Florida Straights..

Most of those W models were keeping 92L very weak until the Fl Straits, I'll be interested to see the intensity is weak for 92L as it moves to the Straits.

[gatorcane]

Well GFDL is ever so slightly edging more West as is the HWRF. If the GFDL track verified, it would be ugly here in SE Florida. Other models are trying to bring it through extreme Southern Florida and FL Keys. All in all, seems like long-term the models are agreeing that 92L may just be in the general area of peninsula FL in 5 days, at least close enough to maybe create some serious nail-biting.

[gtsmith]

looks like the 12z GFDL crosses 80W grazing the Florida coast

GFDL swings back towards FL while GFS swings further east...the models diverge even more IMO

[rockyman]

the 12z HWRF is bombing out at 920mb!

[Stormcenter]

Ivanhater, I have not seen the full Canadian run, did it move across the DR and Cuba as a very weak system then deepen after it moved in to the EGOM?

Here is the loop http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yeah keeps it weak as it tracks across the Islands then pulls up in the GOM

It looks like it reforms or whatever under Cuba then heads NW. If you want a good laugh then the Canadian will give you one. In it's defense it does a better job with established systems.

[gatorcane]

Note the GFS makes a hard right in the Bahamas -- I doubt the GFS run and am leaning more towards the GFDL at this point.

if that verifies and 92L deepens into something significant.

[Ivanhater]

Notice the 12z models are shifting more west in the short term, leading to a further west solution later on..look for that trend..

[Javlin]

Javlin,

I've not seen that low crop-up in the other models, so for now I'd count it as spurious.

- Jay

Yea Jay just the fact the GFS had it could it be the GFDL and HWRF injested the same info?I wasn't going to right home about it Destructions just an ob as stated above if phantom lows being fed into some models.You are OK Gt all tring to learn here.

[JPmia]

Well GFDL is ever so slightly edging more West as is the HWRF. If the GFDL track verified, it would be ugly here in SE Florida. Other models are trying to bring it through extreme Southern Florida and FL Keys. All in all, seems like long-term the models are agreeing that 92L may just be in the general area of peninsula FL in 5 days, at least close enough to maybe create some serious nail-biting.

and some 'storm' warnings...eek!