Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, I have not seen the full Canadian run, did it move across the DR and Cuba as a very weak system then deepen after it moved in to the EGOM?

Here is the loop http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yeah keeps it weak as it tracks across the Islands then pulls up in the GOM

It looks like it reforms or whatever under Cuba then heads NW. If you want a good laugh then the Canadian will give you one. In it's defense it does a better job with established systems.

I know what you mean, but dont count that solution out..look at the gfdl , pushes a bit south of west over eastern cuba, leading to a more west mandfall this run..just something to look at

[canegrl04]

the 12z HWRF is bombing out at 920mb!

Not out of the question

[americanrebel]

looks like the 12z GFDL crosses 80W grazing the Florida coast

This is just my opinion, there is no scientific backing behind what I am about to say. No organization backs what I say.

I really thinks that these models are just way off, even though they were initiated over 5 hours ago. That would mean that was when it was not organized as it is now.

Like a lot of other people have said, this has to be the best organized investment I have ever seen.

Local met. on KLFY TV-10 in Lafayette last night, was pretty impressed with this system, he even said that it had 2 separate LLC and the one with the convection should take over. He also stated that it should already be a TD and possibly be a TS. That was at 10:15 pm Central time.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Keep in mind the models will bounce east and west for the next five days. Yesturday they trended east today west. Who knows what Friday will bring?

[Stormcenter]

Well GFDL is ever so slightly edging more West as is the HWRF. If the GFDL track verified, it would be ugly here in SE Florida. Other models are trying to bring it through extreme Southern Florida and FL Keys. All in all, seems like long-term the models are agreeing that 92L may just be in the general area of peninsula FL in 5 days, at least close enough to maybe create some serious nail-biting.

This proves that it's just way too early to call though I still believe this is
an East coast (S. Florida and northward) event if it's a event at all. IMO

[gtsmith]

Javlin,

I've not seen that low crop-up in the other models, so for now I'd count it as spurious.

- Jay

Yea Jay just the fact the GFS had it could it be the GFDL and HWRF injested the same info?I wasn't going to right home about it Destructions just an ob as stated above if phantom lows being fed into some models.You are OK Gt all tring to learn here.

Hey Jav...cool...I'm good with that...I have found you need to be REALLY careful about what you write and how you write on this forum lest one be accused of -removed-. To my original query...I do wonder how two storms like that might interact and or influence each other...

[CrazyC83]

Well GFDL is ever so slightly edging more West as is the HWRF. If the GFDL track verified, it would be ugly here in SE Florida. Other models are trying to bring it through extreme Southern Florida and FL Keys. All in all, seems like long-term the models are agreeing that 92L may just be in the general area of peninsula FL in 5 days, at least close enough to maybe create some serious nail-biting.

This proves that it's just way too early to call though I still believe this is
an East coast (S. Florida and northward) event if it's a event at all. IMO

Is there any chance this could miss the trough completely and become a Gulf event if it becomes strong in a hurry?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, that latest GFDL run would definitely be bad news for Florida.

[Stormcenter]

looks like the 12z GFDL crosses 80W grazing the Florida coast

This is just my opinion, there is no scientific backing behind what I am about to say. No organization backs what I say.

I really thinks that these models are just way off, even though they were initiated over 5 hours ago. That would mean that was when it was not organized as it is now.

Like a lot of other people have said, this has to be the best organized investment I have ever seen.

Local met. on KLFY TV-10 in Lafayette last night, was pretty impressed with this system, he even said that it had 2 separate LLC and the one with the convection should take over. He also stated that it should already be a TD and possibly be a TS. That was at 10:15 pm Central time.

It "looks" like 92L is headed right for PR and Haiti.
The mountains in Haiti will not be kind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

371
WHXX04 KWBC 141729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.5 62.2 285./12.0
6 18.1 63.4 297./12.6
12 18.0 64.3 266./ 8.5
18 18.1 65.4 276./10.9
24 18.6 66.6 290./12.4
30 19.2 68.0 293./14.6
36 19.4 69.2 279./10.8
42 19.5 70.2 280./10.1
48 20.0 71.9 285./16.8
54 20.1 73.3 276./12.9
60 20.2 74.4 273./ 9.9
66 20.1 75.2 266./ 7.6
72 20.7 75.9 308./ 8.3
78 21.2 76.5 311./ 8.4
84 22.0 77.1 326./ 9.3
90 22.9 77.8 320./10.8
96 23.9 78.4 327./11.4
102 24.8 79.0 328./10.7
108 25.8 79.3 341./ 9.9
114 26.8 79.8 334./11.3
120 27.9 80.2 340./11.1
126 28.9 80.6 339./10.7

[Trader Ron]

GFDL made a pretty big move West, from 06Z. It has my attention.

[txwatcher91]

Well GFDL is ever so slightly edging more West as is the HWRF. If the GFDL track verified, it would be ugly here in SE Florida. Other models are trying to bring it through extreme Southern Florida and FL Keys. All in all, seems like long-term the models are agreeing that 92L may just be in the general area of peninsula FL in 5 days, at least close enough to maybe create some serious nail-biting.

This proves that it's just way too early to call though I still believe this is
an East coast (S. Florida and northward) event if it's a event at all. IMO

Is there any chance this could miss the trough completely and become a Gulf event if it becomes strong in a hurry?

IF it becomes a Cat 3 or higher it would be pulled more northward by the trough.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Nogaps in...nasty!

[rockyman]

NOGAPS 12z run is complete...shows the system crossing or skirting Hispaniola, then criss-crossing Cuba, curving NW, crossing the Florida Keys and heading NW or NNW toward the central Gulf Coast states

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081412

[KWT]

Yep 12z GFDL shifts west, not all that surprising, also has a fair amount of land interaction as well...however if the center forms from the MLC then the starting location will be too far west and that may make a slight difference to the exacts of the track.

I'd also imagine a weaker run from the GFDL as well.

[Meso]

12z HWRF

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z HWRF shows a major hurricane moving up the east coast of Florida between late Monday and Tuesday...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cheezyWXguy]

can someone post the hwrf? Someone said it bombs it out to 920mb!?!

[Blown Away]

12Z Nogaps in...nasty!

Image did not work, is it nasty before or after passing bt SFL?

Can somebody please post the graphic run for the 12z GFDL.
ty

[gatorcane]

GFDL and HWRF are very well-respected models and are showing consistency on that run taking it right up the SE/E Coast of Florida. Wow.