ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[perk]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

This is the best-looking TD I've ever seen, and few TS are better in appearance.

If this is a TD...it is barely a TD. Looking at hi-res vis loops tells me that if there is a closed LLC...it is out near 18/63 and not under the MLC. There are clearly SE and S winds on the west side of the convective blob...and they are not light.

That does not mean this system can't pull itself together quickly and the center dive down to the sfc form the mid levels...but right now...it looks much more impressive than it actually is.

Also...for those who keep wondering why the NHC is not upgrading...please...take a good look at a hi-res loop (and not form the SSD site either...that's not hi-res). You will be hard pressed to find a LLC or anything that suggests it. The low level cu field has the motion of a sharp tropical wave. It doesn't mean it can't happen in a couple of hours...but it doesn't appear to be happening now.

Great post AFM, we really needed a voice of reason right about now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like some favorable Upper Level Outflow forming this afternoon to support that thunderstorm development.

[Steve]

>>I didn't see Fox News. But I think they are getting that from Accuwx.

That's a deadly combination. As for the 12z runs, the 00z CMC was at the Yucatan before heading north while the 12z has a curious move across the western edge of Cuba, heads up toward the panhandle and hooks a little to the NW at the end. The loop ends before landfall presumably somewhere between the FL/AL state line and Buras, LA - somewhat roughly similar to Georges 1998 (not exactly) but a different time of the year.

12z GFS still likes the run up the east coast solution but builds in a high overtop when at-that-point-Fay would be roughly on the lat of SC and stalls. Obviously if it's sitting underneath the block the GFS puts north of it, it's not going out to sea. It's going to either sit there or nudge W/WNW at that point.

No call either way.

Steve

[KWT]

Yeah as AFM said it does seem like the LLC is getting caught up by the MLC steadily and that process has been occuring over the last 24hrs as well, indeed you can see some weak convection trying to fire over that old LLC.

Seems to be on its way, just need it to better stacked IMO, or for the MLC to create a LLC of its own...probably end up with multiple centers just to make it even more tricky

[Aric Dunn]

Anybody tracking an on-the-edge sloppy-looking LLC is going to get faked out. I say (in my furry unofficial jaguar capacity) that the MLC is going to close off an eyewall radar signature at around 700mb, then bomb straight to the surface in an hour, just like Dolly did near the northeast tip of the Yucatan while planes were futilely investing a dying swirl southwest of it.

first comes first. We need recon to confirm....

"Confirm" is exactly that: confirm. That does not mean that an LLC or a TD or aTS could not already be occurring, or even have been since sunrise.

Tropical systems aren't strange-quarks or Schrodinger's cats: They do exist in whatever state they are in independent of our examinations of them.

Well...here is the diff b/w "furry unofficial jaguar" language and that of the scientist. You called it a TD. To be a TD...it has to have a closed LLC and I am saying...AS OF RIGHT NOW...if it has a LLC...it is that "sloppy-looking" thing on the edge of the convection. I even stated in my post that it could drill down from the MLC to its east...but RIGHT NOW is what we are talking about (or at least I am)...and right now consists of what is happening RIGHT NOW...not what MAY happen in an hour.

If you are going to call it a TD (present tense)...you have to do it based on what is happening RIGHT NOW. There is no getting faked out going on. You make a forecast based on what is happening RIGHT NOW and you forecast the very real possibility of something happening to the east.

As far as Schrodinger's cat and 92L are concerned...I can see into the box and the cat isn't alive...but I think the MLC is working CPR on it and it will be alive very shortly. You can see it catching up with the low level vortmax...and the winds are starting to back a little in front of it...so the cat will be alive soon enough.

As far as the other stuff you were saying...eyewall radar sig...etc...well...I'm not going to touch that.

you know before you viewed the cat it was both alive and dead at the same time right.

and i agree with you 100%

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like some favorable Upper Level Outflow forming this afternoon to support that thunderstorm development.

You know, this is just my opinion, but if there were a llc centered in the middle of the convection blob id say it has the appearance of at least a 60mph ts. Of course its not now, but that has to be one of the best-formed pseudo CDO's ive ever seen

[KWT]

Yep I certainly wouldn't be surprised if that strong MLC develops a LLC as well, clearly looks very impressive indeed, wonder what winds that mass of storms in the MLC are producing.

[tolakram]

Cloud tops are warming in the last few IR frames, visible still looks good but ... I'm going to assume we're all wrong (with the notable exceptions) and what we saw was an impressive burst of MLC with no LLC for support yet.


I love the tropics. Hope everyone stays safe!

[Vortex]

12Z GFDL major shift to the left with landfall over central florida.

[Stormcenter]

>>I didn't see Fox News. But I think they are getting that from Accuwx.

That's a deadly combination. As for the 12z runs, the 00z CMC was at the Yucatan before heading north while the 12z has a curious move across the western edge of Cuba, heads up toward the panhandle and hooks a little to the NW at the end. The loop ends before landfall presumably somewhere between the FL/AL state line and Buras, LA - somewhat roughly similar to Georges 1998 (not exactly) but a different time of the year.

12z GFS still likes the run up the east coast solution but builds in a high overtop when at-that-point-Fay would be roughly on the lat of SC and stalls. Obviously if it's sitting underneath the block the GFS puts north of it, it's not going out to sea. It's going to either sit there or nudge W/WNW at that point.

No call either way.

Steve

If it were further south then the Canadian run would be somewhat believable but based on where it's at right now I think the East coast event scenario looks more probable.

[Air Force Met]

Eastward-darting cloud elements over Barbuda, suggesting closed circulation down to at least 850mb.

There is no way you see eastward moving low clouds over Barbuda.

1) Low level clouds 50 miles west of there are streaming north and...most importantly...

2) Barbuda is covered in a dense cirrus canopy from the convection. Low level cloud elements are not visible. The IR temps over Barbuda are below -60C...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL major shift to the left with landfall over central florida.

It skims the SE FL coastline also -- would not be good for SE FL if that verified.

[txag2005]

Air Force Met - What do you feel the chances of development are?

[Aric Dunn]

there could be some evidence that a llc maybe trying to for near the mid level with antigua now reporting SSW winds.

thats important since the LLC that is farther west of antigua would not be producing a SSW wind there..
but the area where the midlevel circ would

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Eastward-darting cloud elements over Barbuda, suggesting closed circulation down to at least 850mb.

There is no way you see eastward moving low clouds over Barbuda.

1) Low level clouds 50 miles west of there are streaming north and...most importantly...

2) Barbuda is covered in a dense cirrus canopy from the convection. Low level cloud elements are not visible. The IR temps over Barbuda are below -60C...

Yep not there yet. But I bet in 6 hours well be really close if not there.

[Stormcenter]

12Z GFDL major shift to the left with landfall over central florida.

It looks like it just skirts the coast with no landfall. IMO

[KWT]

Should be noted recon finding SW winds to the west of the LLC that has been pointed out which is rather interesting...

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met - What do you feel the chances of development are?

I would give it a 90% chance. the only reason its not 100% is there is nothing for sure when it comes to tropical wx and the best looking invests have suddenly poofed in the past. I think this one will go once the MLC catches up with the sfc trof/LLC. then its off to the races. I think that will happen today...or at least it should.

[Aric Dunn]

12z hwrf 116kts...
50 miles off melbourne

cat 4!!

[KWT]

Yeah as AFM said the mid level circulation is catching up with the LLC pretty quickly now, high level cloud already moving over that LLC it seems.