ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cpdaman]

ARIC you are confused Wxman was saying that was the remnant LLC

[msbee]

new convection firing right within the convection burst from earlier -- its improving by the hour:

according to that image, it looks like Antigua is right in the middle of that burst of convection. Yet the current conditions at Antigua are as follows:
at 2 PM:




2008.08.14 1800 UTC
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TAPA 141800Z 19005KT 9999 -SHRA FEW010 BKN036 BKN280 27/25 Q1012
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 14 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) S 6 light rain showers

can someone explain that to me? only light rain showers?

[littlevince]

Radar Loop (16:30-18:30z)

[cpdaman]

MSBEE , appears to me they are SSW of that burst and also recon has showed definitively (finally flew over the MLC) that a llc has not formed under the blob.....yet so winds don't surprise me and yes it is probably pouring about 20 miles ne of the island

[ConvergenceZone]

"Bursting" is currently seen in the IR photo, so, perhaps there's some weakening going on, or, it might be diurnal weakening (since it's after 3 p.m. out there):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

P.S. Fortunately, there appears to be a TUTT to the west of the disturbance, so, that's good as far as the environment not being all that favorable...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

all that means is that it won't be super rapid intensification

[txag2005]

Based on recon from this afternoon, can we assume no development to a TD for the time being? I've heard some people mention no LLC was found.

[Aquawind]

Based on recon from this afternoon, can we assume no development to a TD for the time being? I've heard some people mention no LLC was found.

Correct.. They go by the fact and definition. The LLC and hence surface winds must meet criteria. Evidently not yet.

[txwatcher91]

Based on recon from this afternoon, can we assume no development to a TD for the time being? I've heard some people mention no LLC was found.

This would indicate otherwise, maybe not one yet but SW winds found.
182730 1759N 06147W 9770 00309 0121 +228 +200 158017 018 999 999 03
182800 1800N 06145W 9772 00307 0122 +226 +200 164021 022 999 999 03
182830 1801N 06144W 9771 00307 0121 +226 +200 166028 029 999 999 03
182900 1802N 06143W 9775 00304 0124 +217 +200 170030 031 999 999 03
182930 1803N 06141W 9774 00308 0126 +210 +200 166024 026 999 999 03
183000 1804N 06140W 9767 00311 0125 +207 +200 168025 026 999 999 03
183030 1805N 06138W 9770 00309 0125 +212 +200 170026 027 999 999 03
183100 1806N 06137W 9771 00310 0126 +216 +200 168024 025 999 999 03
183130 1806N 06136W 9776 00307 0127 +213 +200 174021 022 999 999 03
183200 1806N 06134W 9768 00313 0127 +211 +200 183020 021 999 999 03
183230 1806N 06132W 9771 00311 0128 +209 +200 197021 023 034 013 03
183300 1806N 06131W 9770 00314 0131 +201 +200 203016 018 035 012 00
183330 1806N 06129W 9777 00308 0131 +199 +199 208017 018 042 016 00
183400 1805N 06127W 9758 00323 0131 +187 +187 220018 018 043 017 00

[mf_dolphin]

Since we have the very real possibility of a threatening system please place all personal forecasts in this thread. This is a way of keeping the main thread clear for people looking for accurate information.

[ronjon]

From HPC this afternoon:

FINAL...

THE 12Z GFS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH THE BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES OVER MOST OF THE NATION FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN DIRECTING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA...BUT AGREED WITH THE SPECIALIST THERE THAT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW IS QUITE LOW. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL TAKES THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...THEN LIFTS IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT NORTHWARD WELL SHORT OF THE FLORIDA COAST IN A HEAVILY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

[RL3AO]

Its very close to having a closed circulation. Might not be there quite yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well it obviously has not fully formed yet, but it looks like the eastern half of a new llc is forming under the convection. take a look:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Note on the east side that low level clouds are really starting to get sucked into the convection. Its only a matter of time.

[cpdaman]

Based on recon from this afternoon, can we assume no development to a TD for the time being? I've heard some people mention no LLC was found.

This would indicate otherwise, maybe not one yet but SW winds found.
182730 1759N 06147W 9770 00309 0121 +228 +200 158017 018 999 999 03
182800 1800N 06145W 9772 00307 0122 +226 +200 164021 022 999 999 03
182830 1801N 06144W 9771 00307 0121 +226 +200 166028 029 999 999 03
182900 1802N 06143W 9775 00304 0124 +217 +200 170030 031 999 999 03
182930 1803N 06141W 9774 00308 0126 +210 +200 166024 026 999 999 03
183000 1804N 06140W 9767 00311 0125 +207 +200 168025 026 999 999 03
183030 1805N 06138W 9770 00309 0125 +212 +200 170026 027 999 999 03
183100 1806N 06137W 9771 00310 0126 +216 +200 168024 025 999 999 03
183130 1806N 06136W 9776 00307 0127 +213 +200 174021 022 999 999 03
183200 1806N 06134W 9768 00313 0127 +211 +200 183020 021 999 999 03
183230 1806N 06132W 9771 00311 0128 +209 +200 197021 023 034 013 03
183300 1806N 06131W 9770 00314 0131 +201 +200 203016 018 035 012 00
183330 1806N 06129W 9777 00308 0131 +199 +199 208017 018 042 016 00
183400 1805N 06127W 9758 00323 0131 +187 +187 220018 018 043 017 00

excellent observation..........we shall be watching these developments very closely....especially if i lived in St. martin or Anguilla or other small island in the area

[tolakram]

In the loop you can see clouds streaming into the storm becoming more defined but I'm not sure what I'm looking at. Is the old center beginning to become more defined (with some convection popping around it) or is the center moving / reforming under the convection?

[oyster_reef]

Well it obviously has not fully formed yet, but it looks like the eastern half of a new llc is forming under the convection. take a look:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Note on the east side that low level clouds are really starting to get sucked into the convection. Its only a matter of time.

convection seems to be dying down... again. Tops are warming.
It is expanding though.

[AtlanticWind]

14/1745 UTC 17.6N 61.6W T2.0/2.0 92L

[KWT]

Convection is decaying a little bit but its still fairly decent and some weakening is expected at this time of day given its nearing Dmin now.

That recon is really interesting, suggests something is going on in that convective mass right now, quite possibly the MLC is finally working down to the surfac.e..if so won't be long before we have a tropical system.

Also those T numbers are pretty decent, that fix is also pretty close to where recon found at least some sort of circulation occuring at low levels as well.

[Frank2]

Some posters earlier observed that the LLC might be west of the convection based on the recon winds found in the first leg - it might be (thought the low cloud lines did really seem to indicate that), and, if that's true, then it's not nearly as potent as many thought...

We'll see...

[ColdFusion]

Cloud tops warming? Convection decaying? I must be looking at the wrong loops....

[cheezyWXguy]

Well it obviously has not fully formed yet, but it looks like the eastern half of a new llc is forming under the convection. take a look:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Note on the east side that low level clouds are really starting to get sucked into the convection. Its only a matter of time.

convection seems to be dying down... again. Tops are warming.
It is expanding though.

You are joking...reds have reappeared after being absent for 1 or 2 frames. A new burst is clearly evident on visible.

btw: as I said in my previous post, low clouds are now flowing into the convection from the southeast, possibly indicating the formation in progress of a new llc. However further west, low clouds still support the existence of the old llc, as shown on this diagram i made in paint...lol