Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[mattpetre]

From too many hours of looking at the CIMSS steering products, I tend to think that the ridge is going to build pretty strongly back towards SE US and this may very well be a S. FL then GOM threat later next week. Just have to wait for all models to initialize with an actual storm center and see what that trough in the plains does over the next 24 hrs.

[Lifesgud2]

well how much model consensus do we need with the globals?

Euro, HWRF, and GFDL are zoning in on SE and E Coast of FL or very near thereof

I guess the GFS not being on board is the factor at this point.

interesting trend and I'd say they are coming into better agreement. A few more runs with this kind of agreement and I will be taking heed.

Gatorcane,

While I respect your thoughts and ideas, it seems like ALL of your posts say something about this "storm" which is NOTHING yet, approaching Florida. What gives? How can you say this with out a storm even forming yet? Just curious. Are the new models out yest that says otherwise?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Until the synoptic data of the ridge can be injected into these models, not to mention an llc fix, the path days from now should not be relied on. The strength of the ridge will be crucial to the direction of the storm.

I think we'll have to wait until Saturday to know where this is really going.

[Lifesgud2]

Until the synoptic data of the ridge can be injected into these models, not to mention an llc fix, the path days from now should not be relied on. The strength of the ridge will be crucial to the direction of the storm.

I think we'll have to wait until Saturday to know where this is really going.

I cant agree with you more..

[gatorcane]

Several models are showing 92L becoming a storm and heading in the general direction of Florida.

You are right there is no "storm" yet and I do think its very early to call where its going. The confidence is low in the long-term...

Alot can happen in 5 days that is for sure

[Aquawind]

Ugh.. I am waiting for the 2 full runs after the LLC has formed and models initialized properly. These early runs look creepy though.

[Javlin]

Until the synoptic data of the ridge can be injected into these models, not to mention an llc fix, the path days from now should not be relied on. The strength of the ridge will be crucial to the direction of the storm.

I think we'll have to wait until Saturday to know where this is really going.

A good point there and brings us back to the 3 day instead of the 5 day window which is much more accurate.Ivanhater what about that track(ECMF) across FL reminds me of Erin.

[Ivanhater]

Until the synoptic data of the ridge can be injected into these models, not to mention an llc fix, the path days from now should not be relied on. The strength of the ridge will be crucial to the direction of the storm.

I think we'll have to wait until Saturday to know where this is really going.

A good point there and brings us back to the 3 day instead of the 5 which is much more accurate.Ivanhater what about that track(ECMF) across FL reminds me of Erin.

Lol, when I saw the Euro track, that is the first thing I thought of was Erin '95

[Scott_inVA]

Freebie model map for 18Z just completed:



Couple thoughts:
LLC remains imprecise and undefined and one hopes recon finds it has closed off. That will significantly impact forecast path.

There needs to be "reliable" data b/c it is unlikely the approaching CONUS trof will dive down and get the TC...if Ridging builds (hello Bermuda High) this may not be drawn up to the east of FL.

Virtually *everything* trends West.

EGOM is (IMO) certainly on the table.

(this has been about the most interesting Invest I can recall!)

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[txwatcher91]

Until the synoptic data of the ridge can be injected into these models, not to mention an llc fix, the path days from now should not be relied on. The strength of the ridge will be crucial to the direction of the storm.

I think we'll have to wait until Saturday to know where this is really going.

A good point there and brings us back to the 3 day instead of the 5 which is much more accurate.Ivanhater what about that track(ECMF) across FL reminds me of Erin.

Lol, when I saw the Euro track, that is the first thing I thought of was Erin '95

Doesn't it seem odd that the Euro showed it moving N and then all of a sudden turned it W?

[Ivanhater]

Doesn't it seem odd that the Euro showed it moving N and then all of a sudden turned it W?

Not really, with the models building the ridge back in, that track would occur,,again all about the timing like always

Great post scott, look for the trends...

[KWT]

Ah yeah that 12z ECM is a spliting image of Erin 1995 in terms of track!

[RL3AO]

Anything that close to Hispaniola will get shredded, IMO.

[JonathanBelles]

I like that image better than the SFWMD one.

[KWT]

Maybe RL3AO, I'd have thought it would somewhat limit strength but the high resolution models such as GFDL still has this rapidly strengthening, enough to be at least as strong as David 79 when it made its attack up the east coast of Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL has this moving over Hispaniola and Cuba. it still is a borderline cat 3/4

[gatorcane]

seems messed up to me

How could it predict a CAT 3/4 going over the mountains?

[Scott_inVA]

Doesn't it seem odd that the Euro showed it moving N and then all of a sudden turned it W?

Ridge blocks the TC so it shifts more westerly. Even tho it's the EC, not sold on that solution

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Javlin]

Well it's always been noted that the intensity forcast while great to gawk at are really guessing at best at times.

[txwatcher91]

Doesn't it seem odd that the Euro showed it moving N and then all of a sudden turned it W?

Ridge blocks the TC so it shifts more westerly. Even tho it's the EC, not sold on that solution

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

The troughs this year have done a number on the ridge, that is why I have a hard time believing it just stops N movement and moves W at almost the same latitude.