Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cheezyWXguy]

Freebie model map for 18Z just completed:



Couple thoughts:
LLC remains imprecise and undefined and one hopes recon finds it has closed off. That will significantly impact forecast path.

There needs to be "reliable" data b/c it is unlikely the approaching CONUS trof will dive down and get the TC...if Ridging builds (hello Bermuda High) this may not be drawn up to the east of FL.

Virtually *everything* trends West.

EGOM is (IMO) certainly on the table.

(this has been about the most interesting Invest I can recall!)

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

I dont think it is going to get as close to DR as many think, as well as the models do, because the center that will eventually take over is a bit ene of there, and that could make it to the point where it isnt hindered nearly as much by land as current models show, because they initialize at the old llc, not the mlc. Does anyone else agree with me?

[canegrl04]

I remeber the 2004 hurricane that sat off the west coast of Florida juicing up on steroids

[Javlin]

Doesn't it seem odd that the Euro showed it moving N and then all of a sudden turned it W?

Ridge blocks the TC so it shifts more westerly. Even tho it's the EC, not sold on that solution

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

The troughs this year have done a number on the ridge, that is why I have a hard time believing it just stops N movement and moves W at almost the same latitude.

If I am correct in my memory wherever there is Low pressure it quickly fills in with High pressure once it moves.Someone correct me if I am wrong but has been my general understanding.

[KWT]

Yeah if the center forms a little further east of the current model starting point then it may slightly lessen the risk of it hitting land, its close but it may actually help tighten up the low a little.

[Scott_inVA]

Maybe RL3AO, I'd have thought it would somewhat limit strength but the high resolution models such as GFDL still has this rapidly strengthening, enough to be at least as strong as David 79 when it made its attack up the east coast of Florida.

Here's 18Z GFDI (GFDL Interpolated)


Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.co
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow:

Several models are showing 92L becoming a storm and heading in the general direction of Florida.

You are right there is no "storm" yet and I do think its very early to call where its going. The confidence is low in the long-term...

Alot can happen in 5 days that is for sure

I have to agree with you.....I believe the "major" models are on to something. Somewhere along the East Coast looks like the "early" target area for 92L or whatever.

[gatorcane]

I hope the GFDI does not verify.

[txwatcher91]

The troughs this year have done a number on the ridge, that is why I have a hard time believing it just stops N movement and moves W at almost the same latitude.

If I am correct in my memory wherever there is Low pressure it quickly fills in with High pressure once it moves.Someone correct me if I am wrong but has been my general understanding.[/quote]
Should be higher pressure. Just because there is a low pressure area doesn't mean hp will build in, if that was the case there should be a hp that forms over central Africa and along 10N from all the waves that develop there.

[KWT]

Thanks Scott neat graphics. Looks like in that it only clips the islands as it goes past, so wouldn't really stop development to be honest...

[Stormcenter]

Freebie model map for 18Z just completed:



Couple thoughts:
LLC remains imprecise and undefined and one hopes recon finds it has closed off. That will significantly impact forecast path.

There needs to be "reliable" data b/c it is unlikely the approaching CONUS trof will dive down and get the TC...if Ridging builds (hello Bermuda High) this may not be drawn up to the east of FL.

Virtually *everything* trends West.

EGOM is (IMO) certainly on the table.

(this has been about the most interesting Invest I can recall!)

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Yes I know things can change but seriously
how can anyone "right now" believe 92L is not headed toward
the East coast? The models are seeing something that I guess some of us are missing.
Look back at past tracks in the same area as 92L and you'll see that
it has happened a lot in the past.

[bosag]

Well, it seems like the Palm Beach Post is eating crow on that article from this morning. Now they are updating saying that "it poses a distinct threat to South Florida". Sorry I don,t know how to cut and paste, but its on the main page right now. Palmbeachpost.com

Barb

[gatorcane]

Well, it seems like the Palm Beach Post is eating crow on that article from this morning. Now they are updating saying that "it poses a distinct threat to South Florida". Sorry I don,t know how to cut and paste, but its on the main page right now. Palmbeachpost.com

Barb

Well I predicted that this morning that their next article would go 180 degrees from the one saying its no threat....

Here is the link:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... torms.html

take note of this from the article. Beven indicates it is a "distinct threat":

"Should that be the case, it poses a distinct threat to South Florida," said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven at the National Hurricane Center near Miami. "If it does, it could start to strengthen. Several of our guidance models would like to make it a hurricane."

[Bocadude85]

UNCONFIRMED reports of a tornado touch down in Dade county

[bosag]

Thanx Gatorcane:)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Freebie model map for 18Z just completed:



Couple thoughts:
LLC remains imprecise and undefined and one hopes recon finds it has closed off. That will significantly impact forecast path.

There needs to be "reliable" data b/c it is unlikely the approaching CONUS trof will dive down and get the TC...if Ridging builds (hello Bermuda High) this may not be drawn up to the east of FL.

Virtually *everything* trends West.

EGOM is (IMO) certainly on the table.

(this has been about the most interesting Invest I can recall!)

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

I dont think it is going to get as close to DR as many think, as well as the models do, because the center that will eventually take over is a bit ene of there, and that could make it to the point where it isnt hindered nearly as much by land as current models show, because they initialize at the old llc, not the mlc. Does anyone else agree with me?

I agree. Not only that, but if stronger, it may help prop up the ridge, providing the feedback to allow a more westerly track before taking the turn around the periphery. Also, if it relocates further east, that will give the high even more time to build back to the west before Fay "gets there" ; gets to the point at which she turns.

[Canelaw99]

UNCONFIRMED reports of a tornado touch down in Dade county

Yep - saw the tornado warning...was in the vicinity of Miami Springs, but due to regular afternoon t-storms & not something tropical

[Steve]

>>There needs to be "reliable" data b/c it is unlikely the approaching CONUS trof will dive down and get the TC...if Ridging builds (hello Bermuda High) this may not be drawn up to the east of FL.

Yeah, but looking at the setup and what's happening in the WPAC, there would/should be a temporary alley there or at least a temporary weakness before the 2nd and/or 3rd surface highs come down from Canada. Either could provide the 'trap' or even just a stall. I'm not biased one way or the other and can see several scenarios. But the general concensus of the models even up through 72 hours leads me to believe they are onto what is the slightly more likely scenario - Fay-To-Be being near the SE Coast of Florida or the Bahamas in 4-5 days. Then we'll see.

JMO and obviously not official.

Steve

[Bocadude85]

Yup not tropical related

[Aric Dunn]

latest euro.. build the ridge back .. while riding the east of florida like the Hwrf and GFDL

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[jlauderdal]

Well, it seems like the Palm Beach Post is eating crow on that article from this morning. Now they are updating saying that "it poses a distinct threat to South Florida". Sorry I don,t know how to cut and paste, but its on the main page right now. Palmbeachpost.com

Barb

Barb,

You are much better off here than on any of the three major newspaper sites in sofla, trust me. Be very leery of what hear on tv too because they make plenty of mistakes. I recommend channel 10 as they have max mayfield running the hurricane program there and quite frankly I wouldn't suggest listening to any other media outlet in sofla.