ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Aquawind
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2781 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:10 pm

NEXRAD wrote:If the currently forming new cells west of the main convective cluster continue to deepen, they may influence the mid-level center and transfer it farther west (alla convective processes/mesoconvective cluster circulation influence).

- Jay




Yep. Seems like the MLC is now consuming the LLC and could be the stacking transition is starting.
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#2782 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:10 pm

The thing is those little cells that are forming on the very western side of the MLC are still pretty tiny compared to the large and pretty well established convective ball over the MLC.
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Re: Re:

#2783 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:11 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks to me like the MLC is starting to catch up to the LLC. They may try to start line up soon...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


Just came here to post the same thing. That is what I am seeing too as well as some storms trying to fire possibly to the west of that. Also looks to me like this is not going to skirt the islands but go right through them. Am I missing something?


well that would kill it.. for sure... even on the model paths hispanola will likely severly disrupt it possibly to a point that it may not recover unless its just far enough north ..
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Re:

#2784 Postby NEXRAD » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:15 pm

KWT wrote:The thing is those little cells that are forming on the very western side of the MLC are still pretty tiny compared to the large and pretty well established convective ball over the MLC.


At this time they are, however they may develop quickly into a much larger convective cluster. This happens with convective systems over the US. I've seen it happen many times with winter-time Florida squall-lines where the main convective cluster begins to weaken with new activity out-running the primary line. After awhile, the secondary activity intensifies into the main convective feature, with the then diminishing western convective cluster sometimes leaving a remnant wake-low. Of course there are different dynamics in play with such scenarios, but convectively speaking multiple new cells can over-take a larger convective region.

For 92L, I'd more expect the new cells to blossom and form a more pronounced westward extension of the main cluster.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2785 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:17 pm

1005.9 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg)

18.8N and 61.9W
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#2786 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:18 pm

Looks like that exposed center to the west is closed.
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#2787 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:19 pm

I think its going to just skim or go just north of the Greater Antilles but not enough to completely kill it off.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2788 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:19 pm

Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2789 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:20 pm

txag2005 wrote:Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.


yeah I agree -- once there is a cone alot of eyes will open -- just my opinion.

Either the 5pmEST or 11pmEST should finally get this thing upgraded -- it can't be that far away.
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Re:

#2790 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:20 pm

RL3AO wrote:Looks like that exposed center to the west is closed.


yep....all it took was for them to flyover there and well some convection to fire nearby//

interesting .. 5pm ts fay?

if the west winds are confirmed that is
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2791 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looks like that exposed center to the west is closed.


yep....all it took was for them to flyover there and well some convection to fire nearby//

interesting .. 5pm ts fay?


Current data support 35 kt and 1006mb, so it would be TS Fay if a circulation is determined.
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Re: Re:

#2792 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looks like that exposed center to the west is closed.


yep....all it took was for them to flyover there and well some convection to fire nearby//

interesting .. 5pm ts fay?



Looks like they Pinched one off...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2793 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:
txag2005 wrote:Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.


yeah I agree -- once there is a cone alot of eyes will open -- just my opinion.

Either the 5pmEST or 11pmEST should finally get this thing upgrade -- it can't be that far away.


I know around here at least, most people have no idea about the tropics unless its a TS or Hurricane and all over the media. Even then, many people have no idea. It was amazing how many people in Houston had no clue Edwardo was heading our way the night before it hit.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2794 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:23 pm

txag2005 wrote:Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.


Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.
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#2795 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:23 pm

Image

I think those small convective bursts on the western side are the beginning of more intense convection in the process of building in that direction..I may be wrong but it's possible.System continues to look beautiful
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2796 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:24 pm

This is an excerpt from this afternoons NWS discussion out of Miami, FL.

In the extended forecast...there is still much uncertainty at
least in the Sunday-Tuesday period...concerning future track of
tropical wave currently located over the northern Leeward Islands.
Thus...until some of this uncertainty is resolved...will make no
changes to this portion of the forecast...with at least a chance
of showers/thunderstorms continuing through the period. By the end
of the extended forecast period...it appears that the large
subtropical upper-level ridge currently located over the central
Atlantic will begin expand westward...and may encompass a large
portion of the Florida Peninsula by middle/late week. Both the GFS
and latest run of the European model (ecmwf) are in general agreement on this
scenario...and will make no changes to this portion of the
forecast as probability of precipitation/temperatures near climatology seems to be the forecast
at this time.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2797 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:24 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looks like that exposed center to the west is closed.


yep....all it took was for them to flyover there and well some convection to fire nearby//

interesting .. 5pm ts fay?



Looks like they Pinched one off...


Hmm looking at the LL inflow pattern to the south and the combined firing convection to the west I think we are basically there.. It's going to be ugly and big for a few hours at least but I think we have just like relocated the MLC over the LLC or something like that..lol
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#2798 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:24 pm

Wow, this would be the 3rd system to go straight to TS status this year in a row.
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#2799 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:25 pm

Sun-sentinel in Miami-Ft.Lauderdale on it now:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... 7498.story
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2800 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:25 pm

x-y-no wrote:
txag2005 wrote:Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.


Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.



I think 11pm or may an intermediate special advisory but unlikely IMO at 5pm. Also, thing once the LLC is established it may bypass td and right to ts.
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