ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Lowpressure]

Any thoughts on when we can expect a upgrade to TD status? The last thing I want is for the NHC to jump the bullet, but if this thing is going to be a threat, I hope we can give people enough time to prepare.

Right now based on recon 5pm looks kind of unlikely - my guess would be 11pm - and it may very well be TS Fay at that point.

Question: Why wouldn't they upgrade now? This system is so close to the islands down there, wouldn't it be best to upgrade to get needed info, warnings to those folks?

I do not think many are convinced that is the LLC that will be the ultimate center of this system. Relocation looks highly probable. JMO.

[Sanibel]

Watch for that new red dot to burst into the new pseudo-CDO.

[deltadog03]

Thats why I Said this is a tough call...I don't think you will see a VDM either. There is obviously something closed where the AF plane got it, but I think its pointless to say thats where the center will be for good. Tough call coming up!

[Aric Dunn]

511
WONT41 KNHC 142039
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

If a vortex comes through I think the NHC will still upgrade it because then they can get the various warnings out, then if the center does shift which I find highly likely (eventually this center is going to hit PR...thats when its a goner IMo) they can simply shift the system eastwards.

[Aquawind]

Watch for that new red dot to burst into the new pseudo-CDO.

you mean the convective dot or the recon dot on the visable image?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Question: Why wouldn't they upgrade now? This system is so close to the islands down there, wouldn't it be best to upgrade to get needed info, warnings to those folks?

Re-iterating what TXAG has said - THe last thing we need is to have folks ignoring the NHC - because they are upgrading storms like crazy.

Another facet - once storms are declared and named - it sets off a bunch of insurance stuff and govermental agencies are forced into action - all this costs money. No need to waste it - esp on a weak TD/TS - unless they have solid logical evidence backing them up.

[Aquawind]

more waiting.....

LOL of course..even if a VDM came in..more data MORE!!

[gatorcane]

have the UL winds not been favorable for the past 24 hours? I wonder why Beven states they are BECOMING more favorable.

[Aric Dunn]

more waiting.....

LOL of course..even if a VDM came it..more data MORE!!

i meant for upgrade..

[txag2005]

No 5PM upgrade. I guess depending on the next few hours of recon we could see something change at 11.

[KWT]

I think they have been getting more favorable, so with Beven saying that it is becoming more favorable seems to be a fair statement.

[Lowpressure]

If a vortex comes through I think the NHC will still upgrade it because then they can get the various warnings out, then if the center does shift which I find highly likely (eventually this center is going to hit PR...thats when its a goner IMo) they can simply shift the system eastwards.

I would also guess no VDM the system is not that strong to catch the islands off guard at this point. It seems highly likely that the LLC will relocate, once that occurs- game on. If you VDM the center that will evap, models will be initiated wrong and so on. I think good call to wait until the definitive LLC evolves. There are plenty watching this to not let it sneak up on anyone, but large projected track changes would be needed if they used the current weak LLC as a fix.

[Aric Dunn]

have the UL winds not been favorable for the past 24 hours? I wonder why Beven states they are BECOMING more favorable.

ummmm.. you dont get much better than this

[ConvergenceZone]

If a vortex comes through I think the NHC will still upgrade it because then they can get the various warnings out, then if the center does shift which I find highly likely (eventually this center is going to hit PR...thats when its a goner IMo) they can simply shift the system eastwards.

When you say "it's a gonner if it hits PR", So you MEAN that if the system hits Peurto Rico, the system is pretty much history and back to being a wave?

[Sanibel]

That area is a merge between the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and north of the islands Bahamas west Atlantic. A weak system might have trouble organizing here but the further it goes towards the Bahamas the better the potential.

[hurricanefloyd5]

MEDIUM RANGE...DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 3 TO 5
HOURS IS INDICATING VERY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL SOLNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF DEVELOPMENT WITH CONSENSUS
ON A RECURVING TRACK JUST EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY AND TUE. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST PRESENCE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND
FORECASTS WILL REMAIN SUBJECT TO REVISION BASED ON NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER UPDATES.

RESIDENTS AS WELL AS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE...CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


This is from the Melbuorne office

[Category 5]

Well, it's no longer a matter of "if", it's "when".

[txag2005]

I have a feeling that by 5 PM tomorrow we'll have a TS on our hands.

[drezee]

PR enjoy your Tropical Wave