Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Recurve]

The excellent thing about this part of hurricane alley is that the Greater Antilles give us a lot of protection from just this kind of track. A little south toward the Keys and you have to contend with land and mountains. A little north and recurve chance increases, as was said above.

There is always the small chance of rapid intensification over the Gulf Stream, but that's why we can't ever turn our back on anything, and the older homes are small and strong.

I posted this estimate in the TT forum: 1034 miles from Key Largo, 13 knots brings it here just after midnight Sunday (Monday 1:30 am EDT). 8 knots puts landfall at Tuesday morning.

[GreenSky]

shouldnt the 18z models be coming out soon?

Yes, they're mostly out. The 18Z GFDL has shifted right from the 12Z. The newest GFDL keeps the disturbance well offshore Florida, moving it over the Northern Bahamas, the eye moving over Grand Bahama at closest approach to Florida. The 18Z UKMET is similar to its previous run, ditto for the 18Z GFS.

- Jay

Links?

[Brent]

shouldnt the 18z models be coming out soon?

Yes, they're mostly out. The 18Z GFDL has shifted right from the 12Z. The newest GFDL keeps the disturbance well offshore Florida, moving it over the Northern Bahamas, the eye moving over Grand Bahama at closest approach to Florida. The 18Z UKMET is similar to its previous run, ditto for the 18Z GFS.

- Jay

Links?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not Seeing the GFDL shifting East there?

[Bocadude85]

That looks like the GFDL brings this into Florida... not well off shore..im confused now

[Brent]

Sorry, I changed images. The first image still had the 12z run.

[GreenSky]

Hmmm...that Bermuda High sure looks weak compared to all those approaching troughs...AND SERIOUSLY, THAT COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PAN HANDLE HAS BEEN STALLED THERE FOR LIKE 10 MILLION YEARS...WHEN IS THAT FORECAST TO LEAVE?

IF THAT COLD FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA, THAN 92L MIGHT JUST BE A FISH ALTOGETHER.

[Derek Ortt]

there is absolutely zero chance of this thing being a fish

I can guarantee 100% you this will impact land

[JonathanBelles]

That front is expected to fizzle tomorrow.

[Blown Away]

there is absolutely zero chance of this thing being a fish

I can guarantee 100% you this will impact land

Do you think 92L will impact FL or do you think it will stay to the East?

[NEXRAD]

The frontal boundary well offshore the US East Coast, with its associated low near Nova Scotia, will progress northeast, squeezing north of the Bermuda high. Considering the trough and ridge interactions in a fluid manner, what'll end up happening is the ridging will be "squished" westward. The tail end of the trough affecting Florida will weaken without upper level support, becoming a remnant boundary on Friday. During the weekend, guidance supports keeping some sort of a weak trough / ridge break along the US Southeast Coast. However, it will be worth watching whether this entirely happens or if the Atlantic ridge can connect with ridging farther west in the Gulf of Mexico. The next East Coast trough cycle will be in play for Saturday into early next week. The intensity of that trough and how ridging sets up remain uncertain.

- Jay

[Derek Ortt]

its too soon to say if this will hit Florida, miss to the east, or even west

[Dean4Storms]

No way this system goes fishing, it could move north awhile and eventually get turned back to the west, but it will find land somewhere on the SE coast or possibly even the upper Gulf Coast as far as the US is concerned.

Right now the area of greatest concern to me would be Heavy Rains for Haiti and then how deep a system it becomes over the Bahamas and the threat to South Florida, beyond that it becomes too wide a cone for any certainty whatsoever.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFDL is further offshore, but still close enough to Florida to cause big problems. The immediate east coast would see a prolonged period of tropical force winds in this scenario with inland locations seeing TD force winds. High wave action would also be a major concern...

Early Afternoon Monday: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp16.png
Early Evening Monday: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp17.png
Overnight Monday into Tuesday: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp18.png
Tuesday Morning: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp19.png
Early Afternoon Tuesday: http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp20.png

[Dean4Storms]

Hey Jay, long time no see.

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL cat 4

wave until Cuba

1935 like intensifictation in Bahamas

[KWT]

Also the GFDL still has this getting down to 956mbs, thats quite a few recent runs that has had this down between 955-965 from the GFDL, impressive stuff!

[GreenSky]

The frontal boundary well offshore the US East Coast, with its associated low near Nova Scotia, will progress northeast, squeezing north of the Bermuda high. Considering the trough and ridge interactions in a fluid manner, what'll end up happening is the ridging will be "squished" westward. The tail end of the trough affecting Florida will weaken without upper level support, becoming a remnant boundary on Friday. During the weekend, guidance supports keeping some sort of a weak trough / ridge break along the US Southeast Coast. However, it will be worth watching whether this entirely happens or if the Atlantic ridge can connect with ridging farther west in the Gulf of Mexico. The next East Coast trough cycle will be in play for Saturday into early next week. The intensity of that trough and how ridging sets up remain uncertain.

- Jay

Ah hah! So that "remnant boundary" that may cause 92L to curve North away from the Florida coastline will be a result of the leftover remnants of the stalled cold front that is CURRENTLY over the Florida panhandle?!

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF... upper cat 3

120 hour position near Hat

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS moves this system faster than the other models. It already has 92L into the northern Bahamas by early Monday afternoon...

http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS ... /slp16.png

update - nevermind. The HWRF does the same thing.