ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[mattpetre]

This invest (report wise) reminds me very much of Edouard... too bad it has so much warm water ahead of it still.

[gerrit]

They don't pay taxes or get to vote in the November POTUS elections, but otherwise, there is an island full of US citizens between Fay to Be and La Republica Dominicana...

Would you volunteer to pay my taxes? You'd be surprised (and I'd be happy )

Puerto Rico is classified by the U.S. government as an independent taxation authority by mutual agreement with the U.S. Congress. Contrary to common misconception, residents of Puerto Rico pay some U.S. federal taxes: import/export taxes, federal commodity taxes, social security taxes, etc. Most residents do not pay federal income tax but pay federal payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare), and Puerto Rico income taxes. But federal employees, or those who do business with the federal government, Puerto Rico-based corporations that intend to send funds to the U.S. and others also pay federal income taxes. Because the cutoff point for income taxation is lower than that of the U.S. IRS code, and because the per-capita income in Puerto Rico is much lower than the average per-capita income on the mainland, more Puerto Rico residents pay income taxes to the local taxation authority than if the IRS code were applied to the island. Residents are eligible for Social Security benefits upon retirement. But Puerto Rico is excluded from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and receives less than 15% of the Medicaid funding it would be allotted as a state, while Medicare providers receive only partial state-like reimbursements for services rendered to beneficiaries in Puerto Rico (even though the latter paid fully into the system).

[BatzVI]

[quote="wxman57"]00Z models initialized the center right over BVI, 100 miles west of MLC. BVI reporting calm wind. Must be in the eye?

Was just outside again, and it's dead still here on the northside of STT.....guess it really is the calm before the storm....

[Blown Away]

00Z models initialized the center right over BVI, 100 miles west of MLC. BVI reporting calm wind. Must be in the eye?

Wxman57 can you give us a brief summary why:
1. The 00z Bamm models made a big shift E?
2. Is the ridge not expected to be as strong?
3. Did the models initialize the wrong area?

[HURAKAN]

[cheezyWXguy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




TD 6/92L ADVISORY #1
8PM CDT
8/14/08

92L APPEARS TO HAVE ORGANIZED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS NOW FINALLY BEGUN TO OCCUR OVER THE LLC. THE MLC IS MOVING WSW TO STACK ON TOP OF LOW CENTER, AND THIS SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND EXTREMELY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION, A STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IT MOVES TO THE W OR WNW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE WNW MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, BUT A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE IN SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DURING DAYS 3 TO 5. DURING THIS TIME, A STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, BRINGING THE STORM TO A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AT DAY 5. HOWEVER, AFTER DAY 4, I FORECAST THE WEAKNESS THAT BRINGS THIS SYSTEM NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE UP, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE W OR WNW, POTENTIALLY HINTING AT A LANDFALL ON THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS, WHICH BRINGS FUTURE FAY TO LANDFALL ON THE COAST NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOWEVER, IF/WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE GULF, WHICH IS LIKELY 7 DAYS OR MORE OUT. IN ADDITION, STRENGTH IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FROM THIS POINT.

THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION AS LITTLE IF ANY ENCOUNTER WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MEAN A WEAKER SYSTEM IN AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM. ONE MUST NOTE THAT NEITHER THE TRACK NOR INTENSITY FORECAST ARE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INTENSITY FORECAST:

INITIAL: 30KT
12HR 35KT
24 HR 45KT
36 HR 55KT
48 HR 65KT
72 HR 80KT
96 HR 90KT
120 HR 95KT

FORECASTER: CHEESE

ps. sorry if the forecast track is hard to read.

[deltadog03]

I can't really speak for WXMAN, but from my perspective
BAMS are about worthless right now
Not sure on the Ridge strength right now
Fairly close to the LLC...

[HURRICANELONNY]

No model means crap. Until a center is initialized and a depression/ Fay forms.

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

The loops make it appear this thing is moving W/SW, at least the deep convection is drifting that direction. I'm starting to also think this will hit the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

They don't pay taxes or get to vote in the November POTUS elections, but otherwise, there is an island full of US citizens between Fay to Be and La Republica Dominicana...

Would you volunteer to pay my taxes? You'd be surprised (and I'd be happy )

Puerto Rico is classified by the U.S. government as an independent taxation authority by mutual agreement with the U.S. Congress. Contrary to common misconception, residents of Puerto Rico pay some U.S. federal taxes: import/export taxes, federal commodity taxes, social security taxes, etc. Most residents do not pay federal income tax but pay federal payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare), and Puerto Rico income taxes. But federal employees, or those who do business with the federal government, Puerto Rico-based corporations that intend to send funds to the U.S. and others also pay federal income taxes. Because the cutoff point for income taxation is lower than that of the U.S. IRS code, and because the per-capita income in Puerto Rico is much lower than the average per-capita income on the mainland, more Puerto Rico residents pay income taxes to the local taxation authority than if the IRS code were applied to the island. Residents are eligible for Social Security benefits upon retirement. But Puerto Rico is excluded from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and receives less than 15% of the Medicaid funding it would be allotted as a state, while Medicare providers receive only partial state-like reimbursements for services rendered to beneficiaries in Puerto Rico (even though the latter paid fully into the system).

I always kind of hoped Puerto Rico and Guam would vote for full statehood, just to see how they fit 52 stars on the flag.

[HURAKAN]

I always kind of hoped Puerto Rico and Guam would vote for full statehood, just to see how they fit 52 stars on the flag.

That's easy. star^52



Back to 92L.

[cheezyWXguy]

The loops make it appear this thing is moving W/SW, at least the deep convection is drifting that direction. I'm starting to also think this will hit the islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

ugh its not
youre watching the mlc, not the llc. the llc is moving w or wnw. the mlc is moving wsw to catch up with the llc, which it is doing a good job of doing. I still do not expect a landfall on DR, possible of PR, but any interaction with land should not be too disrupting to this storm. You all can keep hoping if you want.

[Numlock]

I always kind of hoped Puerto Rico and Guam would vote for full statehood, just to see how they fit 52 stars on the flag.

here you go: http://www.westol.com/~beaurega/51flags.htm

clearly, someone's got too much time on their hands. 70 stars? are we going to annex canada?

[Blown Away]

Best track position at 00z.

AL, 92, 2008081500, , BEST, 0, 183N, 646W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80,

Satellite estimate.
14/2345 UTC 18.5N 63.0W T2.0/2.0 92L

Which one is the official position??

[Gustywind]

14/2345 UTC 18.5N 63.0W T2.0/2.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[deltadog03]

Not moving WSW....The storms are expanding. On current heading should skirt PR....

[senorpepr]

Best track position at 00z.

AL, 92, 2008081500, , BEST, 0, 183N, 646W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80,

Satellite estimate.
14/2345 UTC 18.5N 63.0W T2.0/2.0 92L

Which one is the official position??

18.3N 64.6W is official.

[Aquawind]

The weakening MLC has clearly turned direction and yes does give the impression of more island interaction than expected. However this is 92L and were still waiting for a TD..lol..so whatever.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't really speak for WXMAN, but from my perspective
BAMS are about worthless right now
Not sure on the Ridge strength right now
Fairly close to the LLC...

I think the high will be strong enough to push this into Florida. That is JMO.

Also, I also believe it is very close to become a deprssion. In the fact the nhc see's it more northward gives it more chance to become a tropical storm.