ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Aric Dunn
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#3181 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:01 pm

its not going to trick me again.. those are not real bands forming around it again on the NW side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html

or maybe it will trick me... like the boy who cried wolf except 92l has been crying all day ;(
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Just Joshing You
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#3182 Postby Just Joshing You » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:02 pm

What time is 0830 UTC?
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#3183 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:02 pm

extradited wrote:What time is 0800 UTC?


4 AM EDT
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#3184 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I just want everyone to know that the MLC from earlier is now underneath the ball of convection a helping to fire more convection.. yah.. what does that mean .. well more disorganized mess ....

mlc 18.4n 63.7w



looks like we are finally getting ascent, and lining up vertically. Just slow to get it's act together
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3185 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:03 pm

I still think the emerging center is very close to St Croix, just West of the deepest convection.



But I wouldn't bet money on it.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3186 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:03 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Dont see how this is going to avoid major land interaction with hispaniola

I agree, I think it's journey is about to come to an end. It's really beautiful on satellite, but the surface conditions just aren't there. it would take a long jog to the NW for this system to survive. Funeral services for 92L will begin tomorrow. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3187 Postby jaxfladude » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:04 pm

I am glad that my bet that this will not go poof seems to be called..... :D
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3188 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:05 pm

17.9ºN and 64.6ºW, in my very amateur opinion. Darned close to St Croix.


Maybe.


But I have been wrong before...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3189 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:07 pm

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3190 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:09 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Dont see how this is going to avoid major land interaction with hispaniola

I agree, I think it's journey is about to come to an end. It's really beautiful on satellite, but the surface conditions just aren't there. it would take a long jog to the NW for this system to survive. Funeral services for 92L will begin tomorrow. :ggreen:



What if Fay to Be tracks just South of Hispaniola, and does its Northward turn across Cuba?

Image


Not saying it would happen, just saying it isn't impossible.
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Steve
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#3191 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:10 pm

>>If what you guys are saying is true, then chances for development may go below 20%.

>>I agree, I think it's journey is about to come to an end. It's really beautiful on satellite, but the surface conditions just aren't there. it would take a long jog to the NW for this system to survive. Funeral services for 92L will begin tomorrow.

I'm going to have to go ahead and assume you won't be laying any money on either of those ideas, because if you are, I'll spot whatever odds you think are fair.

Steve
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#3192 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:13 pm

Image
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#3193 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:14 pm

Image
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#3194 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:18 pm

at this rate ex 93l will be fay first
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3195 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.



hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.
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#3196 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:at this rate ex 93l will be fay first


Please, lets bring constructive material to the table.
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#3197 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:19 pm

I don't believe that it is not Fay yet. I went out of town for 6 hours just knowing that it would be. Oh well. Any one would like to get me up to date with out reading 25 pages.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3198 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:20 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.



hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.



I hear yea, ive gotten a little confused myself, the latest frame from the IR looks like Convection is trying to pop more to the NW now.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3199 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:20 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.



hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.


I agree...Radar makes it look to be close to st.croix. But anyways who knows when this reaches the surface; just got to watch it closely.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3200 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 9:25 pm

Technically, it is at the surface now, but its a weak eddy now. but at current trends with bursting convection, and the dmax coming around soon (which has helped the storm a great deal in the last 2 nights) convergence should allow for the llc to strengthen over night. Therefore, I resort back to my original prediction of upgrading either tomorrow at 11 or 5.
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