ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[NEXRAD]

Ah, great to see and 'hear' you here, Jay! It's been a while!!

Thanks much, Bvigal - I've been busy with my university and research. Fortunately I'm between semesters for a couple of weeks, so I have a bit more time for the tropics. Nonetheless, I plan to keep watch on interesting storms and post commentary when I can here at S2K throughout the season.

- Jay

[deltadog03]

Thats just north of the SFC low...(or suppose to be sfc low...) Thats why I think the big blob will start dieing off.

[Kennethb]

This system reminds me of one the eventually became I think Erika in 2003. There was a very similar appearance as 92L with incredible out flow over S. Florida. You would have thought there was a strong TS or even hurricane, but there was no surface reflection...yet. Eventually as it moved W to WSW, it developed over the GOM and went into S. Texas. And there was the system just a few weeks ago over S. Louisiana. We had good outflow and a mid level circulation while we had west winds at the surface.

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Winds are NW on one side of PR and SE on the other.

[HURAKAN]

[lrak]

I know I'm late in the game, but isn't this thing a lot futher South than anticipated?

[orion]

For what it's worth, I'm seeing a possible circulation on radar and with low level cloud features (thanks to shortwave IR) near 17.5N, 64.6W - or just south of Saint Croix. It's at extended radar range, so the resolution with that data is more mid-level than surface, and the shortwave IR information is particularly limited due to the obscuring MCS to the northeast of Saint Croix. Limited surface observations, however, really don't support that much.

- Jay

Jay... did you see that spot on radar earlier? It was like a blob broke away and took off southwest to the spot you are talking about. Not sure what it means, but was interesting to watch. It looked like even more circulation in that area than it does now. Maybe just an eddy or the radar playing tricks on our eyes. Surface obs definitely don't support anything there.

Just noticed that the winds (light as they are) at San Juan (SJNP4) just turned from out of the north to out of the WNW.

[txag2005]

No 11PM statement from the NHC?

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Thats just north of the SFC low...(or suppose to be sfc low...) Thats why I think the big blob will start dieing off.

Deltadog03 would you give us a summary on why almost all of the models show a sharp recurve just after 75W? What is your best estimate for 92L, recurve near 75W, landfall into SFL, up the EC towards Carolinas, or through SFL into EGOM?

[bvigal]

uh-oh, Hurakan, looks like the classic "boob stage" developing, LOL!

[Sanibel]

You can see the center spiral on the shortwave loop I posted clear as day. Pulling under the main convection on the - NE - side. Look at the loop. Headed for Puerto Rico on the north shore. That's why it hasn't shown up on Puerto Rican long range. Because it's just on the edge of range. This doesn't preclude a relocation. I'm interested in that new red dot on the NW edge.

[Dean4Storms]

For what it's worth, I'm seeing a possible circulation on radar and with low level cloud features (thanks to shortwave IR) near 17.5N, 64.6W - or just south of Saint Croix. It's at extended radar range, so the resolution with that data is more mid-level than surface, and the shortwave IR information is particularly limited due to the obscuring MCS to the northeast of Saint Croix. Limited surface observations, however, really don't support that much.

- Jay

I went to Radarlab HD on Weathertap.com and saw the rotation you are seeing Jay. It is the only real rotation you can find on Radar and seems to be moving due west toward PR

[Blown Away]

I know I'm late in the game, but isn't this thing a lot futher South than anticipated?

No, 92L is skirting the N coast of PR just like the models showed.

[Dean4Storms]

I know I'm late in the game, but isn't this thing a lot futher South than anticipated?

No, 92L is skirting the N coast of PR just like the models showed.

Well part of 92L anyway.

[NEXRAD]

I suspect that my "apparent circulation" may be illusory. With longer range radar imagery, especially, small-scale occurences such as storm cell propagation or shallow cells dipping under the radar beam can make it seem like there's broader rotation when there really is no such happening. Hence why I always use the term "apparent" if I'm uncertain. BTW, I think that "apparent circulation" is better than this over-used "eddy" term.

For the current convective situation, 92L is about to morph again. This time that new convective burst NE of Puerto Rico will likely become increasingly dominant, possibly elongating the disturbance NW to SE. It's hard to tell with IR imagery, but there might have been a recent outflow boundary emerging SE from the main convective region. If so, look for that MCS to diminish overnight with that more northern convective region becoming dominant. Obviously 92L is being driven by convective processes rather than any circulation core. So long the MCS's dissipate and reform without sustaining over a single area, the system is not really developing.

- Jay

[HURAKAN]

NOAA plane en route.

[Stormcenter]

I know I'm late in the game, but isn't this thing a lot futher South than anticipated?

No, 92L is skirting the N coast of PR just like the models showed.

I guess Jim Cantore needs to retract what he said about 92L moving WSW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[alienstorm]

If you look at the long range radar - the rotation points to an apparent center ene of San Juan, north of St< Thomas. Time will tell

[Blown Away]

If the 92L's circulation center is near or just north of 18.4N/65.5W, it's on track to skirt or go just N of DR and maybe survive. Got to think the recent convection ball is over the circulation center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[MWatkins]

The more I look at long range radar out of San Juan...the more I think the center can't be south of the radar site. If there is one...it's either on the same latitude or perhaps even north of SJU.

Will be very interesting to see what recon finds...

It's blob-a-thon 5000 tonight. Follow the bouncing blob...all blobs all the time.

Will the next blob be the one that gets the low-level circulation?

Stay tuned!

MW