ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

At 11 PM was from the NW but here is the West Wind at 12:00 PM EDT in San Juan:

SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 82 75 78 W9 29.88F

ok

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: Interesting. A west wind in San Juan and a gusty SE wind in St. Thomas definitely makes you think that this thing is at least trying to close off a LLC.

IMO, if there is an LLC it is just N of PR, so maybe that W wind does close it off!

It likely is closed, but is extremely weak right now. It will take a good 12 hours of deep bursting convection to get this thing going.

[srainhoutx]

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 150410
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 AM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2008

PRZ001-004-150500-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 82 75 78 W9 29.88F
PONCE PTCLDY 82 75 78 CALM 29.89F
$$

PRZ006-007-150500-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA RAIN 79 75 89 SE26G35 29.89S
CHRISTIANSTED LGT RAIN 75 73 94 S9G20 29.91F FOG

[Sanibel]

Try PR radar. Possible center just NW of St Thomas. Looks to be heading maybe 270-72 and north of PR.

26 - Gusts 35 somewhat above the 5mph someone was mocking before.

[tpr1967]

Like i thought low center coming together near island of Vieques. Winds out of nw in san juan
indicating inflow towards center to the se. Se winds at ST Thomas. I think it's game on. Maybe. LoL.

[Fego]

Take a look at this sat. May be it will be helpfull. It's the most updated sat.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Sanibel]

Tolakram: Your drawn circle was just touching the bottom of the center circle you can just make out in your shot. Radar shows a faint circle there too. You're just a notch low.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS brings 92L to SFL after stalling off the coast for a few days. Not good.

[AdamFirst]

New GFS brings 92L to SFL after stalling off the coast for a few days. Not good.

Pardon my ignorance, but which part of SoFla are we talking about here?

[Evil Jeremy]

WPB to Fort Lauderdale

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

convergence increasing

[Aric Dunn]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

convergence increasing

stop that you beat me again
been hitting reload for like 20 min now lol

[cycloneye]

Derek,where do you you have a low center fix?

[Ed Mahmoud]

My amateur eyeballs spy a few pixels showing near -85ºC cloud tops. Practically West Pac cloud tops...

[Fego]

Here we go again... Convection on its way.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Sanibel]

Black IR and a symmetrical outflow improvement. Hispaniola ahead! This is developing:

[Blown Away]

Derek,where do you you have a low center fix?

Yes, we need a low fix! Where did the latest GFS initiate from?

[Derek Ortt]

Derek,where do you you have a low center fix?

I don't... nothing yet to fix

waiting for the 1km visible in the morning

[cheezyWXguy]

Black IR and a symmetrical outflow improvement. Hispaniola ahead! This is developing:

MLC still displaced to the east, but is now jumping wnw to catch up with the llc. I think this confusion about the llc mlc relationship may resolve itself by morning

[Sanibel]

I put the center just in the NW corner of that red convection area. Guess I was wrong about the old vortex being alive to the NE.