ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

Black IR and a symmetrical outflow improvement. Hispaniola ahead! This is developin


Bingo on mlc

MLC still displaced to the east, but is now jumping wnw to catch up with the llc. I think this confusion about the llc mlc relationship may resolve itself by morning

[SouthFLTropics]

Derek,

If you could please take the time to give us your thoughts on the most recent GFS run it would be appreciated. Thanks.

SouthFLTropics

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A northwest wind has been reported over northern PR. I would place the LLC near 18.4 north/65.5 west moving westward. It appears it is almost closed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Derek,

If you could please take the time to give us your thoughts on the most recent GFS run it would be appreciated. Thanks.

SouthFLTropics

I would bet money final GFS track near Texas is on crack.

A Betsy or mid 90s Erin track, however, seems possible.


But I have no idea of final landfall, except it isn't in Texas.

[Praxus]

Getting ready for prime time. Also latest GFS has south florida hit, then Houston area. Of course, that's with a big grain of salt at this point!

[AdamFirst]

Anyone have any idea of any approximate intensity when (if) it hits South Florida?

[canegrl04]

Black IR and a symmetrical outflow improvement. Hispaniola ahead! This is developing:

I'd say a special statement will be issued early this morning for upgrade to Fay

[Aric Dunn]

I think we figured as much but a new TCFA issued


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 150300Z AUG 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 150300
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3N 64.4W TO 20.0N 71.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011MB
IS LOCATED 55NM EAST OF PUERTO RICO. MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWEST
AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25
KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER VERY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (83F) AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED BY
160300Z AUG 2008.//

[blp]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

convergence increasing

About time!! Don't know if I read this right, could we assume that any LLC trying to form should form just North of St. Thomas were the value of 10 is located.

[Sanibel]

Betsy was strong even though it got turned around back south.

[Praxus]

Coldest cloudtops yet I think. My totally amateur guess is Fay within 24 hours.

[curtadams]

You can see the stacking on the Puerto Rico radar.. LLC just N of San Juan, MLC just E of PR, and ULC over the Virgin islands (where the black cloudtops are). If you think of the storm as an ice cream cone lying on its side and rotating you can see it.

[bahamaswx]

Really flaring up now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

New ob over northern PR shows a west-northwest wind. It is refocusing near 18.6-18.8 north/65.7-65.9 west. Inflow seems to be refocusiing over this area. I would not be suprized if a depression formed if things keep up.

[blp]

Any reports from our friends in Vieques or Culebra..... Seems like they are getting hammered right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Any reports from our friends in Vieques or Culebra..... Seems like they are getting hammered right now.

Flood warnings for Culebra and Vieques...

[cycloneye]

Charlotte Amalie St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport, Virgin Islands

at 11:53pm. Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 26 MPH (23 KT) gusting to 35 MPH (30 KT)

[cycloneye]

Pressure continues to fall in San Juan,also west winds continue.

ASCA42 TJSJ 150510
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 AM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2008

PRZ001-004-150600-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 81 75 83 W7 29.87F
PONCE PTCLDY 81 73 78 CALM 29.87F
$$

PRZ006-007-150600-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA LGT RAIN 79 75 89 SE16 29.89S
CHRISTIANSTED HVY RAIN 75 73 94 S6 29.92R VSB 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

West wind, looks like we may have a LLC.

Luiz Munoz International Airport
Lat: 18.43 Lon: -66 Elev: 9
Last Update on Aug 15, 12:56 am AST


Partly Cloudy

81°F
(27°C) Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: W 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.87"
Dewpoint: 75°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 87°F (31°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pressure continues to fall in San Juan,also west winds continue.

ASCA42 TJSJ 150510
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 AM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2008

PRZ001-004-150600-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 81 75 83 W7 29.87F
PONCE PTCLDY 81 73 78 CALM 29.87F
$$

PRZ006-007-150600-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA LGT RAIN 79 75 89 SE16 29.89S
CHRISTIANSTED HVY RAIN 75 73 94 S6 29.92R VSB 1

Have you gone al fuerza to personally storm spot yet?


Edit to add: My Spanish could be on crack. My wife speaks it to our kids, mis suegros, who are Mexican, speak it, when I suspect they talk about me. I think "al fuerza' means "out doors", but I could way wrong.

Double edit- born in Tamilipaus, Mexico, but proud US citizens. My wife's uncle, Tio Fito, even votes Republican! Only one, but I'm still working on them.

Not getting any more political than that.