ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Have you gone al fuerza to personally storm spot yet?

No,I am in the house dry as rain has started to fall.Also plenty of lightening in the distance.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If current trends keep up I expect a depression at 5am.

[cheezyWXguy]

If current trends keep up I expect a depression at 5am.

I dont know. Without recon doing flights at that time, systems are almost never upgraded at 5am. But 11am seems likely, if not then, then 5pm.

[GreenSky]

If current trends keep up I expect a depression at 5am.

I dont know. Without recon doing flights at that time, systems are almost never upgraded at 5am. But 11am seems likely, if not then, then 5pm.

Given 92L's close proximity to land, I believe an earlier upgrade is due...maybe 2AM...if not, 5AM for sure, and 8AM latest

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If current trends keep up I expect a depression at 5am.

I dont know. Without recon doing flights at that time, systems are almost never upgraded at 5am. But 11am seems likely, if not then, then 5pm.

We have a southeast, east, northeast, east, northwest, west winds. Why wait for recon when you have surface sites showing it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If current trends keep up I expect a depression at 5am.

I dont know. Without recon doing flights at that time, systems are almost never upgraded at 5am. But 11am seems likely, if not then, then 5pm.

NOAA WP-3D flying as I prepare to go to bed...

[SapphireSea]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

[cheezyWXguy]

If current trends keep up I expect a depression at 5am.

I dont know. Without recon doing flights at that time, systems are almost never upgraded at 5am. But 11am seems likely, if not then, then 5pm.

NOAA WP-3D flying as I prepare to go to bed...

Well I wasnt sure that without the big hurricane hunter jets, whether they were looking for a closed llc, as opposed to just taking environment samples.

[fci]

Betsy was strong even though it got turned around back south.

If we ever had another Betsy; the media and S2K would just about explode.
Up to threaten NC with watches issued, a stall, drift south and loop to cross Key Largo.
Southeast Florida was under a Hurricane Warning for 2 1/2 days.
It was a storm for the ages......

[GreenSky]

FYI, a pro met in the analysis board said "FWIW it think its TS already and winds of 45-50 knots"-DTwxRisk

[cheezyWXguy]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

sapphire, in what state do you live?

[Fego]

Pressure continues to fall in San Juan,also west winds continue.

ASCA42 TJSJ 150510
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 AM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2008

PRZ001-004-150600-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 81 75 83 W7 29.87F
PONCE PTCLDY 81 73 78 CALM 29.87F
$$

PRZ006-007-150600-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA LGT RAIN 79 75 89 SE16 29.89S
CHRISTIANSTED HVY RAIN 75 73 94 S6 29.92R VSB 1

Have you gone al fuerza to personally storm spot yet?


Edit to add: My Spanish could be on crack. My wife speaks it to our kids, mis suegros, who are Mexican, speak it, when I suspect they talk about me. I think "al fuerza' means "out doors", but I could way wrong.

Double edit- born in Tamilipaus, Mexico, but proud US citizens. My wife's uncle, Tio Fito, even votes Republican! Only one, but I'm still working on them.

Not getting any more political than that.

Heavy rain begining to fall... as for "al fuerza", in spanish would be "afuera".

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

The system is refocusing at near 16.7/65.8. It will stay off shore.

[cheezyWXguy]

FYI, a pro met in the analysis board said "FWIW it think its TS already and winds of 45-50 knots"-DTwxRisk

I dont know. Based on appearance that looks reasonable, but the surface feature isnt strong enough yet. In addition, the mlc is displaced slightly, but is beginning to catch up once again.

[GreenSky]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

The system is refocusing at near 16.7/65.8. It will stay off shore.

What is its heading? 280, 290?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

The system is refocusing at near 16.7/65.8. It will stay off shore.

What is its heading? 280, 290?

275-280. But it is just starting to become defined enough to track the last hour or so.

[SapphireSea]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

The system is refocusing at near 16.7/65.8. It will stay off shore.

16.7N? That would keep it offshore if it goes 270 west. But I don't see anything there, unless you mean 18.7N. In which case you are right about the LLC. But the convection will interact with land unless it heads 280 or 290 WNW, and I don't really see it doing that just at this moment. Of course it may change.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC is still fairly displaced judging the assumed location just N of San Juan. While the 'weak' LLC may stay over water, it's MLC and convection will start to interact with PR and then the DR. I think it has some troubled time ahead of it. It also seems like the UL high is not going to move entirely in tandem, so shear might get the system in this case.

The system is refocusing at near 16.7/65.8. It will stay off shore.

16.7N? That would keep it offshore if it goes 270 west. But I don't see anything there, unless you mean 18.7N. In which case you are right about the LLC. But the convection will interact with land unless it heads 280 or 290 WNW, and I don't really see it doing that just at this moment. Of course it may change.

Yes 18.7

[blp]

The consolidation around Vieques is that Mid Level?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[Steve]

Dan Milham of News Channel 6 just assured everyone that there was nothing to worry about and that he'd be watching the models and tell us what we need to know.

Thank goodness for access to information.

Steve