ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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MWatkins
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3381 Postby MWatkins » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:00 am

MWatkins wrote:
Texashawk wrote:Are the GOES satellites down? They haven't updated in a while...


We are in the eclipse. The GOES satellite is passing behind the earth's shadow. We won't have imagery for another hour or so.
Happens...frustratingly...at this time of year.

MW


Sorry...were in the eclipse. Didn't realize how late it was....

MW
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3382 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:01 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I would bet a bridge in New york city that this now has a closed Broad LLC near 18.7/65.8. You now have a west wind...Maybe not the best defined system but I'm not understanding at what point you went to call this a LLC. Please some one point out a flaw within this for me.



No offense but haven't we've been hearing this since yesterday?



A west wind has developed over northern PR. Normally when we get that it is closed., Totally different from yesterday.
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Re: Re:

#3383 Postby GreenSky » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:03 am

SapphireSea wrote:
Steve wrote:Over in NOLA. It isn't any future threat I was worried about, I just didn't like his condescending tone. He's a long term fixture on NBC/Channel 6's weather, but I'm pretty sure he got his certification from the correspondence course they let you take back then.

Steve


Yeah in that case yes, I heard he is lame. But there is no point to getting riled up by a maybe possibly, perhaps, likely, maybe threatening TC. As a person living in S. FL, I will keep a close eye on it, and as a researcher I am all over it as long as I am awake. We can't just sound the alarms down here because of a model's whim, and the NHC understands this, and will act accordingly. Now I'm not saying it has absolutely NO threat to Florida or the East Coast, but at the moment it is not a priority worry to begin making life or death decisions, and the models and research discussions on NHC always inform you of not doing this. The islands and Dominican really does have to rush preparations for deadly flooding, and I believe the local weather services have issued proper warning at the time being.


i don't think the islands will have to worry too much about flooding since 92L is a fast mover.
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Re: Re:

#3384 Postby SapphireSea » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:07 am

GreenSky wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:
Steve wrote:Over in NOLA. It isn't any future threat I was worried about, I just didn't like his condescending tone. He's a long term fixture on NBC/Channel 6's weather, but I'm pretty sure he got his certification from the correspondence course they let you take back then.

Steve


Yeah in that case yes, I heard he is lame. But there is no point to getting riled up by a maybe possibly, perhaps, likely, maybe threatening TC. As a person living in S. FL, I will keep a close eye on it, and as a researcher I am all over it as long as I am awake. We can't just sound the alarms down here because of a model's whim, and the NHC understands this, and will act accordingly. Now I'm not saying it has absolutely NO threat to Florida or the East Coast, but at the moment it is not a priority worry to begin making life or death decisions, and the models and research discussions on NHC always inform you of not doing this. The islands and Dominican really does have to rush preparations for deadly flooding, and I believe the local weather services have issued proper warning at the time being.


i don't think the islands will have to worry too much about flooding since 92L is a fast mover.


Yeah, I'm sorry, by islands I mean PR as well, bad lapse of thought. However DR is vulnerable to having mudslides, even when there is a modest amount of rain, and rain rate may be high in the bands of this system, so a statement for now is acceptable, a watch might be added.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3385 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:09 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3386 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:15 am

There ya go...

Image
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#3387 Postby whereverwx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:27 am

It's doing something...

Image
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#3388 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:27 am

37kt at surface by dropsonde in north of San Juan.
Last edited by RL3AO on Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3389 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:28 am

Image
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Re:

#3390 Postby physicx07 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:31 am

Just wave axis, or do you think it's consolidating S of PR?

whereverwx wrote:It's doing something...

Image
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Re: 92L Personal forecasts

#3391 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:33 am

vbhoutex wrote:Cheesy, if I am looking at your track map correctly it appears you are calling for a FL landfall after a turn more to the west towards the end of the track shown. Can you expand on why you feel that will happen? And do you think it will then cross the peninsula into the GOM?

I will edit that now
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Re: Re:

#3392 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:45 am

physicx07 wrote:Just wave axis, or do you think it's consolidating S of PR?

whereverwx wrote:It's doing something...

Image

I dont think its s of PR. I see several swirls on that radar, and they all need to be watched, but lowest pressures and highest winds are being recorded just north/northeast of PR. I wonder if things will be different tomorrow, but now im off to bed.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3393 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:54 am

weatherguru18 wrote:
A1A wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Alot of energy flowing to the newly formed blob as we get ready for the D-Max. Tonight's recon should provide some answers.


What is the D-Max and what is its significance?


Ok, I'm going to try here. Somebody feel free to add to what I say...

The D-Max or Diurnial Maximum is a period just before sunrise (usually about 5 or 6 am) when thunderstorms are most prevelent. Why is this? Thunderstorms thrive off latent heat. Latent heat, the best I can describe it, is the "heat" given off when an ice cube goes from a solid to a liquid. It has to give off heat to make a phase change. This is latent heat. Latent heat is most prevelent at night because the air is cooler and more condensation can occur. The latent heat is derived from the gas (water vapor) going from a gas to a liquid. In order for this to happen, the water vapor, a gas, must give off heat to make the change. That's why we see convection or thunderstorms fire up during the overnight hours. Anybody else care to elaborate?


You are partly right. What you said about the latent heat is correct. The latent heat of fusion is the amount of energy required to melt a certain mass of ice into liquid water, or the amount released when the opposite occurs, (water freezes into ice). The latent heat of vaporization (or condensation) is the same, except for the change between liquid and vapor phases. In a thunderstorm, both latent heat of condensation, and latent heat of fusion are active, but the former is more important. Both however, contribute the updraft intensity by heating the air and making it more buoyant.

However, this has nothing to do with the diurnal max/min of convection. Latent heating is not tied to time of day, only to the phase changes of water. However, the vertical profile of temperature in the atmosphere IS largely dependent on the diurnal cycle. The steeper the lapse rate, the more buoyant thunderstorm updrafts are, because the temperature difference in the core of the storm versus outside of it will be greater. During the daytime over land is the diurnal max for land-based convection, because the sun heats up the relatively dry land quickly. For the tropical oceans, however, the sea surface temperature doesn't change much between daytime and nighttime, due to the high heat capacity of water. However, the upper-levels of the atmosphere, especially in the presence of clouds, which radiate heat effectively to space, cool off at nighttime, while the warm sea surface below (and thus the the low-levels of the atmosphere near the ocean surface) stays nearly the same temperature. The result is an increase in atmospheric instability at night over tropical oceans, enhancing convection.
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#3394 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:06 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3395 Postby m_ru » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:14 am

Talk about a ball of convection!
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#3396 Postby Cat5x » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:19 am

Wow I just saw the after image myself.

Now that is the strongest INVEST i have ever seen.

How in the world can this just be a Wave ????

It looks like it should be a TS with 65mph winds.


This has to go right to TS status and be another one that they waited sooo long to classify that they skip TD and go right to TS.

I know i am not a hurricane hunter pilot, but lookng at the radar I can clearly see a circulation. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

This is closed off, and strong enough, Hello Faye!
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Re:

#3397 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:22 am

Cat5x wrote:Wow I just saw the after image myself.

Now that is the strongest INVEST i have ever sceen.

How in the world can this just be a Wave ????

It looks like it should be a TS with 65mph winds.


This has to go right to TS status and be another one that they waited sooo long to classify that they skip TD and go right to TS.

I know i am not a hurricane hunter pilot, but lookng at the radar I can clearly see a circulation. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

This is closed off, and strong enough, Hello Faye!



Yeah, they found 37 knot winds at the surface with northern PR reporting station still showing some westly winds. I say based on radar and obs that this has a broad LLC. This system is weird because it is broad.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#3398 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:22 am

AL, 92, 2008081506, , BEST, 0, 183N, 654W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ,
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#3399 Postby bob rulz » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:23 am

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11am?
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Re:

#3400 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:25 am

bob rulz wrote:Do you think it will be upgraded at 11am?


They will upgrade the moment a station, buoy, ship, or recon give them something that shows a well defined surface circulation.
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