Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

KWT · #1301 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:37 am

Looks like the GFDL is building in the ridge again at 120hrs as it bends back NW, would suggest a threat to S.Carolina...

Sabanic · #1302 Postby **Sabanic** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:48 am

Right now I don't believe the models can tell us much of anything for sure. No true system yet, and no clear direction.

Meso · #1303 Postby **Meso** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:17 am

#1304 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:37 am

818
WHXX04 KWBC 151131
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 65.3 275./ 9.9
6 18.5 66.3 298./11.9
12 18.9 67.7 288./13.7
18 19.2 68.9 284./11.8
24 19.7 70.0 293./11.2
30 20.3 71.5 291./14.8
36 20.4 72.8 277./12.7
42 20.6 73.8 279./ 9.2
48 20.9 75.0 286./11.9
54 21.4 76.0 295./10.4
60 22.0 76.6 315./ 8.1
66 22.6 77.1 323./ 7.8
72 23.4 77.4 337./ 7.7
78 24.3 77.6 349./ 9.4
84 25.2 77.8 348./ 9.7
90 26.1 77.8 353./ 8.6
96 27.1 78.1 349./10.4
102 28.1 78.4 338./10.1
108 28.9 78.9 329./ 8.9
114 29.5 79.1 346./ 6.9
120 30.3 79.5 333./ 8.4
126 31.0 79.8 337./ 7.7

KWT · #1305 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:40 am

Looks like the 06z run has this heading for South Carolina again it seems, I wonder how strong it gets on this run?

Bocadude85 · #1306 Postby **Bocadude85** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:48 am

that run seems to bring it a little closer to south florida also... gonna be close if this ever develops

KWT · #1307 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:52 am

Yeah thats true and it wouldn't take much of a jog either to send this system over east florida based on that run

Extremeweatherguy · #1308 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:54 am

Basically there appears to be three main options with this storm..

Option #1 follows the EURO, the GFDL, and the HWRF and brings the storm up the east coast of Florida between Monday morning and Wednesday morning at a slow speed and then eventually aim the final landfall toward the Carolinas.

Option #2 follows the GFS and brings the system up to near south Florida by Monday evening and then stalls the storm the storm just offshore. The storm then either moves into Florida or creeps very slowly up the coast through Thursday. The NOGAPS also has a similar scenario, though it moves the system inland Tuesday morning instead of stalling it offshore.

Option #3 follows the CMC and moves the system into the eastern GOM by the early to middle part of next week.

The only thing similar about all of these options is that Florida should begin to feel the first impacts during the day on Monday. How long these impacts last and just how bad conditions get will be determined by which scenario 92L/Fay takes.

#1309 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:57 am

good analysis EWG

I am truly amazed there is no surface low yet. This is the best looking invest I have ever seen.

Even Jim Cantore from TWC last night mentioned "I have seen hurricanes that have looked worse"

KWT · #1310 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:59 am

Its pretty crazy gatorcane but there we go. The thing is the models won't likely come into any good agreement until we actually ddo have a decent circulation at the surface and who knows when that will happen!

DESTRUCTION5 · #1311 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:59 am

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: good analysis EWG

I am truly amazed there is no surface low yet. This is the best looking invest I have ever seen.

Even Jim Cantore from TWC last night mentioned "I have seen hurricanes that have looked worse"

If it dont pull up its gonna meet its maker...

#1312 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:01 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: good analysis EWG

I am truly amazed there is no surface low yet. This is the best looking invest I have ever seen.

Even Jim Cantore from TWC last night mentioned "I have seen hurricanes that have looked worse"

If it dont pull up its gonna meet its maker...

Mountains won't kill a tropical wave.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1313 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:03 am

HURAKAN wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: good analysis EWG

I am truly amazed there is no surface low yet. This is the best looking invest I have ever seen.

Even Jim Cantore from TWC last night mentioned "I have seen hurricanes that have looked worse"

If it dont pull up its gonna meet its maker...

Mountains won't kill a tropical wave.

it will get what MLC it has and screw with inflow

Extremeweatherguy · #1314 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:04 am

Here is a look at the 06z GFDL...

7pm Mon. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp15.png
1am Tues. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp16.png
7am Tues. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp17.png
1pm Tues. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp18.png
7pm Tues. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp19.png
1am Wed. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp20.png
7am Wed. - http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp21.png

alan1961 · #1315 Postby **alan1961** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:59 am

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnam.html

KWT · #1316 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:03 am

Very impressive GFDL, once again below 950mbs at its peak, so predicting a pretty powerful hurricane it seems.

Sabanic · #1317 Postby **Sabanic** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:05 am

alan1961 wrote:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnam.html

The longer this system meanders the greater chance the ridge is stronger which may result in models swinging back more west. At this point though until we have a "Real" system to deal with anything is possible.

capepoint · #1318 Postby **capepoint** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:06 am

Oh man! If that GFDL plays out it will suck for me. Gulf Stream is nice and warm too!

alan1961 · #1319 Postby **alan1961** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:08 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/nort ... tml#no_url

just from a UK perspective, click on the forward button at the bottom of the pressure map..BBC Aunty :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #1320 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:16 am

Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

Who is online